News Flash! I will not Win!
Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:04 am
I liked my team. I really did. But I come to the conclusion that I do not like them too much anymore. That is because I have come to the realization that I am not going to win the NFBC…again. Actually, I came to that realization sometime in the May/June time frame, but still have been plugging away and I will still be active trying to claw my way up the standings. I’m getting massacred, but I will not quit. Me, the ’62 Mets, and Custer…three of a kind. Though the season is not yet over, I have been doing a little “pre-mortem” on the Edwards Kings – 2008.
I looked first at my offensive offense. About a week ago, I took the “Fantasy Year to Date” stats for my league, Orlando #1. There are some great NFBC contestants in this crowd by the way. Chris Garcia, Dave Clum, Marty Bedell, Rey Diaz, Ira Kerker (and son), Norm Kent, John Noeske, Zac Staples/Josh Schwartz, Mike Duggan, Patrick Welsh, and Sammy Zahler (if I left anybody out, it is only because I ran out of short-term memory sometime in the Nixon administration). Great guys and we really have been cheering each other on all season.
Anyway, I started by comparing at-bats. Fantasy baseball offensive is all about at-bats. The more you have, the more your counting stats go up. Not new information, but I looked to see if this could tell me exactly where my team pulled caused me to pull a Jay Johnstone (except I never managed to get my pants up again). And it did help. When comparing my top eleven players with the most at-bats, my teams offense actually ranked first. That included some disappointments like Ramon Hernandez (16th round) and Yuniesky Betancourt (21st). The other nine were Utley (1st), Vladdy (2nd), Aramis Ramirez (3rd), Abreu (4th), Hawpe (7th), Dye (8th), Conor Jackson (13th), Orlando Hudson (15th), and David DeJesus (19th). Though DeJesus has missed some time and Hudson is now out for the season, I really cannot blame injuries. Many are doing better and had much worse luck.
It is obvious what my strategy was and I have posted it before. Speed. All speed all the time. Whoops! Slipped into a parallel universe there for a while. This is very nearly the slowest team in all of the NFBC. Actually, all of these guys were picked because they were reliable producers of BA and other counting stats for their position. Just like in 2007, I did not get a handle on speed, but even with that glaring weakness, this team fared very favorably in the offensive stats. Unfortunately, the NFBC requires fourteen position players, not eleven. This was a real solid core, so what happened to the other three.
Honest Mom, the first one of these was not my fault. I generally do not pick players after big contracts, but this guy was such a model of consistency, I targeted him. Kenji Johjima was supposed to be my solid if unspectacular No. 1 catcher. His history spoke of durability and production, especially at his position. Let others gamble on J.R. Towles. I wanted a proven entity. Nothing should surprise anyone in fantasy baseball, but this one comes real darn close. I ended up with a big buck FA replacement, Jeff Clement. As far as bidding goes, I guess I did not overspend ($203 vs the next highest of $167) especially given this was the week of the Max Scherzer sweepstakes, but only in the last couple of weeks has his hitting finally started to come around. Not enough time to salvage the position.
The next one is mine. All mine. To say that this guy has a bad injury history is an understatement (he has been hurt more times than the entire Knievel family), but he had a great end of the last season and was in a contract year, another one of my “2008 Filters”. Hank Blalock (11th) will be back for the loosely describe stretch run, but his arm hurts so much that they are putting back a first (Chris Davis will move to third…what a defense…got any Rangers pitchers?). I did draft for this contingency. I picked a cornerman at Utility (next paragraph) plus Dmitri Young (I had not faith in Nick Johnson staying healthy) and Chad Tracy. I though if Blalock did get hurt for a few weeks (giggle giggle), one of these would be able to fill in. Young nor Tracy were healthy when I needed them, I had already dropped my Utility guy (next paragraph) so I filled in with Lamb (ok for a couple of weeks, but tanked) and Millar (gave a few counting stats, but not enough to make up the difference). I wanted 80-20-80-.280 out of my CM position. It is not going to happen.
My Utility was a “Tuffy Rhodes” Finalist this year. Had three homeruns VERY early and was out of a job VERY early. I wrote about why I picked him earlier. Not too old (32). Back up to an over-priced star until getting a new team and a starting job this year. Left-handed hitter in Arlington. What a steal in the 24th round. Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Ben Broussard. This is two years running I picked players with Broussard’s potential, but neither panned out. I think the logic was good, but the results reek. I have played a half a dozen players here. May get 20 HR out of the position, but nothing else.
Actually, for all three of these guys (Johjima, Blalock, and Broussard) the logic was sound. And I do not think I am rationalizing. I made thoughtful (I will not say intelligent) picks based on some good numbers.
My problems were two fold. One, you should not ditch a category. I did draft Freel to try and get some speed, but I hated the pick when I made it and I hate it now. Not good planning. Second, never back up question marks (and in this league, you will have question marks) with question marks. It is a formula for disaster. Or at least a formula to finish somewhere in the middle, but it ain’t a money strategy. You need to click on all cylinders to win this thing, but I am afraid I have too many fouled plugs.
Just more thoughts for those not engorging themselves on football. Let’s try to keep the message board going if we can. I will do my pitchers later.
[ August 18, 2008, 03:08 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
I looked first at my offensive offense. About a week ago, I took the “Fantasy Year to Date” stats for my league, Orlando #1. There are some great NFBC contestants in this crowd by the way. Chris Garcia, Dave Clum, Marty Bedell, Rey Diaz, Ira Kerker (and son), Norm Kent, John Noeske, Zac Staples/Josh Schwartz, Mike Duggan, Patrick Welsh, and Sammy Zahler (if I left anybody out, it is only because I ran out of short-term memory sometime in the Nixon administration). Great guys and we really have been cheering each other on all season.
Anyway, I started by comparing at-bats. Fantasy baseball offensive is all about at-bats. The more you have, the more your counting stats go up. Not new information, but I looked to see if this could tell me exactly where my team pulled caused me to pull a Jay Johnstone (except I never managed to get my pants up again). And it did help. When comparing my top eleven players with the most at-bats, my teams offense actually ranked first. That included some disappointments like Ramon Hernandez (16th round) and Yuniesky Betancourt (21st). The other nine were Utley (1st), Vladdy (2nd), Aramis Ramirez (3rd), Abreu (4th), Hawpe (7th), Dye (8th), Conor Jackson (13th), Orlando Hudson (15th), and David DeJesus (19th). Though DeJesus has missed some time and Hudson is now out for the season, I really cannot blame injuries. Many are doing better and had much worse luck.
It is obvious what my strategy was and I have posted it before. Speed. All speed all the time. Whoops! Slipped into a parallel universe there for a while. This is very nearly the slowest team in all of the NFBC. Actually, all of these guys were picked because they were reliable producers of BA and other counting stats for their position. Just like in 2007, I did not get a handle on speed, but even with that glaring weakness, this team fared very favorably in the offensive stats. Unfortunately, the NFBC requires fourteen position players, not eleven. This was a real solid core, so what happened to the other three.
Honest Mom, the first one of these was not my fault. I generally do not pick players after big contracts, but this guy was such a model of consistency, I targeted him. Kenji Johjima was supposed to be my solid if unspectacular No. 1 catcher. His history spoke of durability and production, especially at his position. Let others gamble on J.R. Towles. I wanted a proven entity. Nothing should surprise anyone in fantasy baseball, but this one comes real darn close. I ended up with a big buck FA replacement, Jeff Clement. As far as bidding goes, I guess I did not overspend ($203 vs the next highest of $167) especially given this was the week of the Max Scherzer sweepstakes, but only in the last couple of weeks has his hitting finally started to come around. Not enough time to salvage the position.
The next one is mine. All mine. To say that this guy has a bad injury history is an understatement (he has been hurt more times than the entire Knievel family), but he had a great end of the last season and was in a contract year, another one of my “2008 Filters”. Hank Blalock (11th) will be back for the loosely describe stretch run, but his arm hurts so much that they are putting back a first (Chris Davis will move to third…what a defense…got any Rangers pitchers?). I did draft for this contingency. I picked a cornerman at Utility (next paragraph) plus Dmitri Young (I had not faith in Nick Johnson staying healthy) and Chad Tracy. I though if Blalock did get hurt for a few weeks (giggle giggle), one of these would be able to fill in. Young nor Tracy were healthy when I needed them, I had already dropped my Utility guy (next paragraph) so I filled in with Lamb (ok for a couple of weeks, but tanked) and Millar (gave a few counting stats, but not enough to make up the difference). I wanted 80-20-80-.280 out of my CM position. It is not going to happen.
My Utility was a “Tuffy Rhodes” Finalist this year. Had three homeruns VERY early and was out of a job VERY early. I wrote about why I picked him earlier. Not too old (32). Back up to an over-priced star until getting a new team and a starting job this year. Left-handed hitter in Arlington. What a steal in the 24th round. Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Ben Broussard. This is two years running I picked players with Broussard’s potential, but neither panned out. I think the logic was good, but the results reek. I have played a half a dozen players here. May get 20 HR out of the position, but nothing else.
Actually, for all three of these guys (Johjima, Blalock, and Broussard) the logic was sound. And I do not think I am rationalizing. I made thoughtful (I will not say intelligent) picks based on some good numbers.
My problems were two fold. One, you should not ditch a category. I did draft Freel to try and get some speed, but I hated the pick when I made it and I hate it now. Not good planning. Second, never back up question marks (and in this league, you will have question marks) with question marks. It is a formula for disaster. Or at least a formula to finish somewhere in the middle, but it ain’t a money strategy. You need to click on all cylinders to win this thing, but I am afraid I have too many fouled plugs.
Just more thoughts for those not engorging themselves on football. Let’s try to keep the message board going if we can. I will do my pitchers later.
[ August 18, 2008, 03:08 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]