Double Down on Average

[DOUGHBOYS]

We're in a different era now, but the stats remain the same. Back in the day, ballparks were configured in between other parcels of land. It is why some parks had strange corners and large center fields and high fences in left field to make up for the shortage of footage. As time has marched on, most ball parks now are more symmetrical and are built on land with no interference from neighboring land.

The ball parks have changed, but the stats stay the same. In an age where folks say 'is is what it is', one stat isn't what it used to be.
The double.
It isn't one of our 10 categories, so not much attention is paid to the double. A two base hit. An extra base hit.
The double is the source of the number one phrase that I dislike in fantasy or real baseball.
'Doubles turn into homers'.

In those big ball parks and in little league parks growing up, we became accustomed to seeing balls go over outfielders heads. In our minds eye, a double was a ball just shy of a home run.
Balls going over outfielders heads in the Bigs usually have the same outcome. They're either off the fence or over the fence. An outfielder who lets a ball get over their head without glancing off the fence usually has misplayed the ball or has poor range.The doubles off the fence keep up the fantasy that a double is almost a home run. Go ahead and count how many times your favorite hitter slams a ball off the wall next year. Besides Fenway Park, if it is over a handful give me a call.
The fact is that most doubles are well placed singles. Mostly down lines or in the alleys. A double is the gap to gap hitters weapon of choice, not the sluggers. Doubles should be more attruitable (I know that's not a word, spellchecker, but it should be) to an average hitter than a home run hitter and I've even got some proof.
Ok, not proof, but evidence. Proof can't be found here, it was in the pudding I ate last night. You'll have to trust me.

Look at this list of hitters:
Bautista
Granderson
Lind
Wells
Teixeira
Uggla
Reynolds.
These hitters all have one thing in common. They all hit at least 10 more homers than doubles.
One, Bautista hit over .300.
The rest all hit .262 or below

Look at this list of hitters:
Cabrera
Francoeur
Cano
Zobrist
Ellsbury
AdGonzalez
Gordon
MeCabrera
Butler
Young
Ortiz
VMartinez
Votto
Beltran
CLee
Phillips
CYoung
Pence
Pedroia
Encarnacion
Holliday
Montero
Walker
Castro

Besides, obviously a classier list, these players all had at least 10 more doubles than home runs and there are a lot more. These are the hitters with at least 35 doubles.
Of these 24 hitters, only CYoung, .236 and Zobrist, 269 hit below .270.
15 of the 24 hit .300 or better.

Billy Butler has been a poster boy for doubles over the last three years, accumulating 140.
During that same time, he has only hit 55 home runs. But, he has also has hit over .300 during that time.

(This has nothing to do with the doubles story, but for those starting slow drafts and are reading this, Billy Butler only qualifies at U this year)

James Loney, same way. Lots of doubles, lots of average. Few home runs.
Mark Reynolds has hit 113 home runs over the last three years.
74 Doubles and a putrid average.
13 players hit 40 doubles last year. Of those, only two hit even 30 home runs. Ellsbury, 32 and Cabrera, 30.
65 Hitters had 30 doubles last year. Only 24 hitters had 30 home runs.
Every player with 40 doubles last year, struck out less than 140 times.

Last year, Vernon Wells had 25 homers, 15 doubles and a .218 average.
The year before, Wells had 31 homers, 44 doubles, and a .273 average.

The fantasy failure for getting it through our thick minds that doubles are well placed singles is that it's not a statistic that we can use for the upcoming year. Just as a lot of doubles does not bring more homers the following year, it also doesn't necessarily bring better average.
In 2010, the three players that tied for second in doubles with 46 were Delmon Young, Jayson Werth, and Evan Longoria.
They hit .298, .296, and .294 respectively.
In 2011, Werth hit 26 doubles and .232. Longoria hit 26 and .244. Young hit 21 and .268.

Even historically, eight of the top 10 doubles hitters in Major League history finished with a career average over .300.
Only one, Hank Aaron, had 500 home runs.
We've grouped doubles in with triples and home runs to make up the extra base hit category.
That's not right.
If anything, we should have singles and home runs and group doubles in with triples.
Triples are either doubles hit by faster players or weller (shut up, spellchecker! Dammit!) placed hits.

So, there you have it.
A long winded post on why 'Doubles turn into home runs' rubs me the wrong way.
For those still reading, I hope you took a speed reading course.
For those not reading and got bored long ago, you missed this-

For those of you who like trends, Joe Mauer hit double digit home runs in his third and sixth year in the Major Leagues.
All the other years, single digits.
2012 Will be Joe Mauer's ninth year.