We're In the Midst of a Regression

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't get regression.
Yeah, I know what it is, but I don't get it. I'm thinking a lot of folks use the word to make themselves sound smart. We hear the word in fantasy circles, when a player has an extraordinary year. Extraordinary years just bug the crap out of analysts. It's like if a player fools them and plays well beyond expectations for a year, these analysts get pissed and drag out the 'R' word.

Take Jose Bautista. Two years ago, he was a utility player. He gets a little advice, changes a few things and becomes the most powerful hitter in baseball over night. Analysts, taken by complete surprise start feuding about an over/under of home runs the next year, 20 home runs below what was hit in the previous year. Regression becomes the buzz word. The 'get even' word.
Analysts are like Mother Nature, it's not nice to fool Mother Nature.

But, Bautista did not regress. He hit a few less homers, but still led the league. In fact, he raised his batting average over 40 points. Now, Bautista has passed the Missouri/Missouri test of 'Show me' twice. Now, to analysts, he is what he is.
Curtis Granderson put up outrageous numbers last year. This year, he is the Regression Party candidate.
Comparing Granderson to Bautista is apples to oranges. The only thing they have in common is getting some batting advice and acting on it. Granderson hits in a lineup where he'll score a lot of runs. His swing is tailored to the ball park. But, he'll probably never hit higher than .275.
He's very active, so not getting hurt all year is a surprise in itself. If regression comes to Granderson, it'll probably hit in the way of injury first.

But, without getting specific about players, regression, or the use of the word is getting out of hand. Shandler uses it often and it seems to be the norm for most analysts now. It doesn't take much smarts to say that any player will not follow up an extraordinary year.
For some reason, regression is usually only applicable to hitters. Ian Kennedy won 21 games last year with strong peripherals. I have heard little about regression and Kennedy.

I've never heard this conversation at a draft-

"Who'd you get?"
'Kemp'
"Oh, too bad! He's got a lot of downside!"
'Why?'
"He's sure to regress! He had his big year! Nowhere else to go but down."

Now Kemp isn't a major candidate for recession because he's had upside for years. Analysts are ok with players and big years if they can, at the least, predict upside beforehand. This makes them feel better about players like Kemp over players like Bautista. I'll have a post in the future about upside...

Now, at the same time, I don't hear the analysts predicting 'progression' for Carl Crawford or Adam Dunn. Instead of progression, these guys are now termed 'bounce back' candidates or 'back to their mean. This works along the same lines as the regression candidates. Analysts were wrong about them, so for sure, these players are bound to at least comeback to the norm next year.
They'll predict 'stuck in the middle' projections for everybody concerned. Numbers that were in between their norm and their extraordinary season or extraordinarily bad seasons. They'll use the bounce back and regression terms, but really they use them to justify the stuck in the middle numbers.

Analysts ride a double edged sword. It is safer to be stuck in the middle. Occasionally, they will be smitten with players and draw outside the lines. Shandlers love affair with Joba is still thrown in his face every chance I, er, some people get. Shandler was sold on the arm and dismissed what the Yankees had in store for that arm.
Although he was wrong, I still liked the nerve it took to go to bed with Joba, insert joke there.
I wish other analysts would do it a little more often. It is easy to say that Adam Dunn will hit 20-25 home runs this season. A stuck in the middle with you number.
Just as easily, he falls off the face of the earth like Richie Sexson did and is out of baseball in two years. Maybe a trade to the National League can save him, but the White Sox would have to admit defeat and eat his salary.
The White Sox would have to eat crow for that to happen.
Best served with Regresso Soup.