A Half Hour

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Dec 22, 2012 11:49 am

PM sent, Lindy.
(and this took less than a minute :D )
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:42 am

I've got half an hour

8:02

Since we are so close to Christmas Day, let's see if we can put a Christmassy team together. I don't like cheating with computer searches, so I'm sure you'll find better elsewhere. But I've given myself half an hour, so I'm sure I'll miss some obvious ones anyhow.

C- Jesus Montero
1B- JT Snow
2B- Jamey Carroll
3B- Ron Santo (a)
SS- Pedro Feliz (Navidad)
OF- (St.) Nick Swisher
OF- Joe Rudi (What close friends call Rudolph)
OF- Rob (rein) Deer
SP- Ewell Blackwell
RP- Mariano Rivera (or, MERRYano Rivera)

I'm sure I missed somebody. Marty MERRYion was a thought.
Making Santana's into Santa was there.
SS was the toughest for me. I could have put Derek Jeter with no l's or NOEL behind it, but these are cheesy enough.
Anyways, there it is.

I have some friends who celebrate the first day of winter. They party because, now, the days get longer and it makes them feel that much closer to spring.
I'll wait and party on New Years Day. (A party to me is friends, family, a meat tray, Doritos, and soda pop)
New Years Day, with the World Baseball Classic coming this year, signals the half way mark of the off season.
MLB has gone back to the traditional Monday start (Sunday Night Game for $$$, of course) on April 1 (no joke)

As we get older, Christmas is still enjoyed by looking at the looks of the kids faces.
The wonderment.
The believing in Santa.
The absolute joy of waiting to see what they'll get.

And as we get older, we can't wait for our own Christmas.
The wonderment.
The believing in our first pick.
The absolute joy of waiting to see who else we'll get.

Merry Christmas Everybody

8:40
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:30 pm

I've got half an hour

10:40


I just finished reading Greg's article that went on Baseball HQ. A good enough read although the word 'value' was used 17,304 times. And that's ok, most don't agree with my point of view that the value of a player is only shown on the field and not at the drafting table.
But, it got me to thinking about how we treat our injured players. When it comes to these players we are very judgmental. In fact, we have the power to be the Judge, jury, and executioner. I'd never thought of it before that read, but we fantasy players treat real players like criminals.

Greg says it's ok to draft Matt Kemp in the first round. Forget that he was out most of last year and that this off season he had shoulder surgery. He thinks of him as worthy of a fifth pick overall. It is because Kemp has only been convicted of misdemeanors. He hasn't rankled owners or been injured enough to start up a bad rap sheet.The kid still has a chance to be rehabilitated into the person he once was. He hasn't killed anybody.

Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki are different. They are convicted felons. They have spread their terror near and far. Those that have found 'value' in them have only found misery. They have been punished by going to the second round so they won't hurt as many drafters. Somebody new to Longoria or Tulo will certainly think they have found the value mecca if selecting these two at the end of the first inning of drafts. They could be bargains, but more likely, they'll be the recipient of an insurance check next year.

Then, there are the three time losers. Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis fall into this category. There is little hope for rehab.
Heck, we've never even seen Crawford in his team uniform. Crawford will be 32 next year and we do know from past experiences that age and injury never make a player faster. Crawford will be hitting in Dodger Stadium as well (Thank you Dodgers for not renaming Dodger Stadium 'Farmer Johns Field'), not a hitters mecca.
Youkilis has had the dog eat his homework, his gall bladder, and his owners. He'll be taken in the 15th round with fingers crossed by one of us. That drafter will be hard up for a 3B or a corner and remember when Youk used to care about his performance, not his contract.

Right now, players like Brett Lawrie and even Mike Trout are running with the wrong crowds. They have a relatively clean record right now, but the odds are that their rap sheets will end up as long as my arm, or worse, longer than Youkilis.
It won't be for the same reasons. They are young and running around in gangs. They are bouncing around like pinballs thinking they are bulletproof. Nothing will ever happen to them!!
But something will.
'Value' is predicated on this year. This year only.
Where somebody sees 'value' in picking one of these players, others see the pitfalls.
Some gang members are lucky and get out, most don't.


Brandon Phillips was thought to have a ninety cent body and 10 cent head by the Indians. They traded him to Cincinnati.
Phillips could have taken 'my natural physical attributes' attitude to Cincy, but he didn't. He started to work at his craft. And maybe more importantly, he now has millions of Mom and Dads watching him. By that, I mean that Phillips has found the internet and twitter. He treats 'his followers' as if Mom and Dad is watching every game.
We're always more focused when Mom and Dad are there. We do not want to disappoint our parents. Phillips has such a large following that he is not only playing for the team, the fans, and his contract. He's also playing for Mom and Dad. His twitter followers. It bumps him up in my drafts...If only BJ Upton and Hanley Ramirez were like that, a career year could be theirs.

We find our 'value' in different ways. For me, 'value' is not found where a player was picked in previous years or even if his adp is being ignored in a draft taking place now.
One drafters 'value', is another drafters trash. Or worse, 14 other drafters trash.
Numerish can be used up the wazoo to convince us that one player is better than another. But sometimes we have to go beyond the numbers to find out the drive in players.
A few short years ago, Kevin Youkilis was taken well ahead of Brandon Phillips. Youkilis is only two years older than Phillips. Youkilis however, plays as if he's 38, not 34. Phillips plays as if 28, not 32. I don't think they've changed much in the way of skill sets. Youkilis is still an on base guy. Phillips still helps in every category.
Youkilis has found that he doesn't have to play a full season to rake in millions of dollars. Although it caused him grief, Bobby Valentine was right about Youkilis. He doesn't play with the same demonstrative fire and desire he once showed fans.
The Yankees have found 'value' in giving him 12 million dollars, just like a drafter will declare value when drafting him late.
Nobody will make that declaration with Phillips. He'll be drafted in the top five rounds with a shoulder shrug from many.


The skill sets are the same, their heads have changed.
Phillips is playing into a fantasy owners hands. He wants the numbers.
Youkilis is playing with fantasy minds. Living on past numbers.
We're a funny lot.
We'll pick a player who is 'fixed' in Phillips without a thought of 'value'
And pick a player who is 'broke' in Youkilis and scream 'value'.
We remember that somebody wrote that once a skill set is displayed that the player 'owns' the skill set.
Forgotten is the head. The head controls the skill set.
Numerish tells us of a player who owns those skill sets in the past. But, we're drafting for the future.
Although a player 'owns' a skill set, sometimes there is something more important than the skill set.
The Mind set.

11:29
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:42 am

I've got half an hour

8:05

I feel a little bit sorry for Nick Swisher. It seemed almost automatic that he turn down the Yankees 13 million one year offering, but it could have been what is best for him, his personal life, and his career.
Instead, he signs a four year deal with Cleveland for one more million each year. I know, I know, it's tough feeling sorry for multi-millionaires. Especially one with good looks, a trophy wife, and a good obp.
But, in my mind, not only is Swisher about to play 'in the boonies', compared to New York or Los Angeles, but his career will probably start a downward trend as well.
Swisher will miss that short porch.
Swisher will miss being surrounded by great professional hitters.
Swisher will miss getting out of bed every day looking forward to a pennant race.
That bed will also not feature his wife.
It'll be totally different than the life Swisher has become accustomed to.
I like Nick Swisher. I thought he was the soul of the Yankees, while Derek Jeter was the heart. Swisher infused personality into a club that desperately needed it. Essentially, the Yankees have traded Swisher's bat for that of Kevin Youkilis.
Youkilis will fit right in with the Yankees outward display of emotionless faces.
The difference, besides personalities, is that Swisher has played seven straight years of playing in at least 148 games.
Youkilis has NEVER played in 148 games in a season.
Maybe Youkilis isn't who should felt sorry for, maybe it should be the Yankees.

The Swisher signing made me think of other misplaced ball players. Giancarlo Stanton has fought off injury since becoming a big leaguer and even before. It is hard to see him playing through injury for a club, he feels, done him wrong. Others will draft Stanton higher than I will.
Lurie can be called a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them. He knows that Stanton is cheap and will put fannies in the Marlin seats. Unless Luris is absolutely bowled over by a trade offer, Stanton is sentenced to play 2013 for the Marlins. I could already see the unintentional intentional walks mounting.

Stanton at Fenway or in Philadelphia, or a Texas Ranger, would probably make him a top 10 pick.
There are other players who could move teams and in doing so increase their fantasy stock.
Adam Dunn could challenge Roger Maris home run record in either Arlington or the Bronx. He'd still hit .200 or even less at Yankee Stadium, but it would be fun watching those screaming line drives he sometimes hits, go into the second or third row of seats.
Joe Mauer, were he a Yankee signing, would have fallen in line with other great Yankee catchers. 30 homers a year, a well above .300 average, and commercials out the wazoo. Instead, he's just a real, real good catcher in Minnesota.


At the same time, there are players that thrive in their own ball parks and teams.
Can you imagine Derek Jeter being the icon that he is if he'd come up in the Padres organization?
Or Carlos Gonzalez. Still a first round pick in many of our drafts. The problem with that is Cargo has to play on the road.
On the road, CarGo is not even an average player.
He had 27 rbi on the road last year. Worse, he only had 27 rbi after the All-Star break last year.
During the last three years, CarGo's home batting average is .361
His road batting average is .260
And not having anything to do with his home park, CarGo is like Kevin Youkilis, in that he too, has never played in 148 games of a season.
Note to self- Lower Carlos Gonzalez in my rankings.

We can blame lower standards on some players home parks. In some cases, it is fair.
Giancarlo Stanton will be a victim of his own success, the lineup that surrounds him, and his ball park.
All will conspire to have pitchers throwing around him this year.
Same with Chase Headley. Headley is deadly (no rhyme intended) in the Padres lineup. Add to the fact that he is a switch hitter and I don't see him getting the quality of pitches that were offered to him last year.
A lot of us see last years statistics and think of them as flowing into this year. We can do that with some hitters, not others. It's those 'others' that make a difference between a good and bad fantasy season.

8:42

Typo fixed for an edit....
Last edited by DOUGHBOYS on Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Edwards Kings » Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:06 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Joe Mauer, were he a Yankee signing, would have fallen in line with other great Yankee catchers. 30 homers a year, a well above .300 average, and commercials out the wazoo. Instead, he's just a real, real good catcher in Minnesota.
Great read(s) as always but...umm...30 HR a year...I mean I know he had that magic year...but...three times what is typcially a "good" year for him! You are in Dorito dust shock! :shock: :D
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:28 pm

Edwards Kings wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:Joe Mauer, were he a Yankee signing, would have fallen in line with other great Yankee catchers. 30 homers a year, a well above .300 average, and commercials out the wazoo. Instead, he's just a real, real good catcher in Minnesota.
Great read(s) as always but...umm...30 HR a year...I mean I know he had that magic year...but...three times what is typcially a "good" year for him! You are in Dorito dust shock! :shock: :D
:lol:
It's a personal belief. My reckoning is that if Joe Mauer were to have Yankee Stadium as his home stadium, he is a good enough hitter that his swing would have changed. As is, we only know Mauer as Mauer without power.
In Yankee Stadium, he takes the Curtis Granderson leap in home runs without sacrificing the contact rate.
In short, I think he would have been an annual top 10 selection in fantasy drafts and sure-fire Hall of Famer.
But, that is just a Dorito ladened opinion. :D
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Edwards Kings » Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:26 am

I will grant you it is tough to bet against one of the few truly great pure "hitters" and if anyone could change his swing to match his environment, it would be Mauer. But it would have to be a total change. Sacrifice more of that contact rate and batting average to try and get some loft. He has made his mark with well placed, hard hit ground balls and liners. Rare for him not to hit at least 50% ground balls, which never climb fences.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:27 am

I've got half an hour

9:50

Our game, fantasy baseball, is a square to Major League Baseball's round hole. It is this way for every fantasy competition. When MLB makes a change, it is NEVER with fantasy baseball in mind. My reckoning is that in the future, at least 25 years away, some of the changes will be BECAUSE of fantasy baseball.
I know I am in the minute minority with this opinion. It is not even conceivable right now that sports make changes for the benefit of the fantasy community. Fantasy baseball and fantasy football are fast growing, but not a group that deserves special attention from sports moguls. At the same time, we represent money. And no sports moguls turn down the desire for easy money.
When television ratings checkers poll the end of a lopsided game, we are there.
When sites related to football and baseball scores count computer user hits, we are there.
When a poor team is playing another poor team in a near empty stadium, we are there.
First, the fantasy community was ignored.
Then, scoffed at.
Then, slowly accepted.
Now, there are programs, sites, writers, and radio shows devoted to fantasy sports.
We are becoming a Monster that is feeding off baseball and football. And they are starting to return the favor.

Some states consider fantasy sports as gambling. This is simply wrong. There are writers, announcers, even referees and umpires who publicly talk of their fantasy players and teams.
Joe Buck can say to Derek Jeter, "Hey, have a good game, I've got you on my fantasy team."
Joe Buck cannot say to Derek Jeter, "Hey, have a good game, I've got a C- Note on you guys."
Pete Rose was barred from the Hall of Fame for gambling.
If only he had just 'bet' on the Reds by drafting all Reds players in a fantasy draft, he would have been deemed ok.
Not to mention, ahead of his time.
These states should ask Major League Baseball if fantasy teams are gambling. Quicker than you can say Shoeless Joe Jackson, MLB would come back with a resounding 'NO WAY'.

My Son-in-Law is a huge Dallas Cowboys fan. This was the first year that he took the plunge into playing fantasy football. We partnered up with the agreement that three Cowboys be on the team at all times. Despite that hindrance, we were playing for the Championship of his military league last week.
In that Championship, we owned Tony Romo, the opposition, Dez Bryant.When Romo threw a long touchdown pass to Bryant, his arms flew up, he screamed a big, "YES!", Then turned to me and said, "I do wish that Austin had caught that instead of Bryant!"
I smiled. This was the biggest fan of any team I know. As a baby, he wore specially made cloth Dallas Cowboy diapers. He'll probably die wearing Dallas Cowboys Depends.
Exalting in a touchdown for his team, while regretting who caught the touchdown for that same team. Much like us when one of our hitters hits a homer off one of our pitchers.

The first time I entered the NFBC was in 2005. I remember going through the doors of the Rio Hotel in Las Vegas looking for our drafting room. I turned down a hall and there were three men sitting at a table. One of the men looked like the guy I had seen in the magazine that had the ad for the NFBC. I said, "Hey, are you guys those fantasy geeks that I here about?"
Greg kind of sheepishly replied, "Yes, are you one too?"
"Guilty as charged!"
Magazines that had been printed months prior, was the preferred weapon of information.
Nobody catered to us.
We were not somebody to be catered to.
Now, we're everywhere.
And, we are very much being catered to..
A lot of commercials on tv are directed specifically at us.
There are sites.
There are programs.
There are shows.
There are articles.
All, revolving around fantasy sports.
We are the Tribbles of sports.
And there is nobody that's trying to get rid of us.

10:27
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Dec 28, 2012 12:56 pm

I've got a half hour

11:15

The Hall of Fame will certainly get a lot of press when revealing who did and who did not gain entrance this year. Every year, writers love to expound on the mistakes made by their brethren.
This year the vote is magnified with steroids being the main topic of discussion. Should the all time home run king be admitted to the Hall of Fame? It's a question that'll be asked at ball parks, offices, and bars across the United States.
Mothers would not vote for Bonds. He cheated. And cheaters never prosper. Ask any Mom.
But, Moms don't play baseball. And Bonds prospered.
Bonds cheated. And so did others. He was the just the best at cheating, that's all.
It is almost a given that the Moms of America will win and Bonds will not get into the Hall this year.
But a no so funny thing happens with players who are not elected the first time eligible. Some writers feel they have been punished enough, while other writers see a light that they didn't see last year.
It took writers several times before giving Bert Blyleven his place in the Hall.
They still haven't gotten Tim Raines right.
And they never got Gil Hodges right.

I used to care deeply who got in the Hall. I sent annual notes to them pleading for them to allow Joe Jackson in the Hall. But now, to put it bluntly, I care a lot less about who goes in the Hall.
They're not hallowed halls. They're not all Dudley Dogooders. The Hall is a Museum.
A Museum that is supposed to show the good and the bad of baseball. At least, that is what most museums do. They include a part of every history, so that they can show us all the history under one roof.
The baseball Hall of Fame has become an executioner for Major League Baseball. I can scream that Joe Jackson had a beautiful batting average, the World Series only home run of 1919, and made no errors all I want.
It falls on deaf ears.
Major League Baseball has executed Joe Jackson.
The same with which they have executed Pete Rose.
The Hall is filled with racists, Ku Klux Klan members, alcoholics, and gamblers. Players that have done the same as Joe Jackson and Pete Rose are accused of. They are in, Jackson and Rose are not.

So now, the question is whether Bonds and his cheating friends get in. They won't. Not this time.
Like Jackson and Rose, they will be penalized.
Unlike Jackson and Rose, they won't be executed.
It's silly to me.
Jackson, Rose, Bonds, and all of Bonds cheating friends excelled on the field. They all played in different times, but at the same time, were products of their times.
Jackson wanted money. He wouldn't have had that problem today.
Rose was stupid. There's also plenty of that going around today.
Bonds could cheat. As are players of today.

They all should be in the Hall of Fame.
They all made stupid decisions.
They are all being punished far more than some of their teammates who did the same things.
They 'got caught.' And when denial followed getting caught. It pissed off the brass. And when the brass gets pissed off, unusual powers are exhibited. One of those powers is a ban from the Hall of Fame.
It should not be within the power of Major League Baseball to ban ANY player from the Hall of Fame.
First, it is not THEIR Hall of Fame.
Second, even if that player is a bad part of MLB history, they are still a part of history.
The Hall does not reward Pete Rose for gambling on games, it rewards him for all the hits.
The Hall does not reward Joe Jackson for possibly throwing a game, it rewards him for dominating Baseball for so many years with his bat.
The Hall does not reward Barry Bonds for cheating, it rewards him for the force he was on the field, when others like him, were cheating as well.

Ty Cobb was such an asshole that the the guys from the corn in 'Fields of Dreams' did not invite him to play.
Ty Cobb is in the Hall of Fame.
We can't let personalities or decisions or opinions of writers dictate who is in the Hall of Fame.
What did they do ON the field?
That should be the first and most important question to any voter.
What did they do on the field?
More than most.
Let them in.

11:55
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Captain Hook » Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:17 pm

Completely agree that Bonds, Clemens et al should be in the HOF - as always a case by case basis strictly based on their baseball achievements. Sadly not only the HOF voting guidelines need to be put forth to reflect that and even then we will still have to deal with some salty old sportswriters who don't care what the Hall stands for or suggests they use as procedure.

The irony is some of those claiming they won't vote for anyone even remotely suggested as steroid users while they never said anything about the players who used amphetamines back in the day.

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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:52 pm

I've got half an hour

7:10

We are so much different now than we are during the season.
All of us are ciphering right now. We are ciphering how to approach the coming season. To cipher we use one of three S's.
Sites
Stats
Source

We all use different sites. Some of us use one site, some use many. Sites are flush with interpretation of stats. Interpretations of why/how batters arrived at their numbers. Some even make up their own stats or lean on one stat more than another.
We do the same thing with stats. I like looking at stats as a whole. Even benign things to roto such as doubles and triples.
To me, there is no overriding stat. Somebody can recite contact rate stats to me all day. After awhile, they become null and void. To me, a contact rate for one hitter means more or less than for another hitter. During the season, some of us play for at bats, thinking the more at bats, the better chance of stats.
Daniel Murphy played in 156 games, had positionality in that he was eligible at more than one position. He's a guy who gives us at bats.
During those 156 games, he made me smile 16 times. That's once every 10 game series. And, when I say, makes me smile, I mean he either hit a home run or stole a base. RBI and runs and average are nice, but they don't make us smile.
This is why a guy like Murphy looks appealing to us during the season, we see the at bats.
During the off season, we see the whole picture
Then, there is the Source.
We all trust somebody's advice or akin to somebody who thinks like we do. There are still Shandlerites. His 'advice' seems almost counter productive to me. When reading his stuff, I don't see NFBC interests first. Player rankings are much the same as anybody elses.
There is no Source who truly escapes the lemming mentality. They are like us, we see, we rank.
We see Mike Trout in the minors and not playing and rank him as a 21st rounder.
We see Mike Trout tear up the Major Leagues and rank him as a first pick or close.
Anybody can rank players. The why is more important than the who. Shandler does this well. So do the folks at Mastersball.
The worst sources are the ones that'll group players at a position together and recite last years stats as if we will an instant replay of 2012.

The way I look at it, all 400 of us are at the Main drafting table for the Main Event.
And we all start out as another S.
Stupid.
And the fantasy season is a race to see if we're less or more Stupid than others in the Overall.
Last year, Dave Potts wasn't smart, he was just a lot less Stupid than we were.
Then, we all finish in varying degee of stupidness behind him.

Yes, we are so much different now than during the off season.
We're under the notion that we're getting smarter now.
The three S's make us feel that way.
We'll feel that way till the season begins.
Then it'll all come back to us.
400 Forrest Gumps taking a seat at the draft table.
Stupid is as stupid does.

7:52
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Ryan C » Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:32 pm

Hey Dan - I am looking back a few half-hours, but as a Tribe fan, I think you are missing the bigger picture when it comes to Swisher joining the Indians.

Yes - the Tribe was willing to pay him more money and added the 4th and 5th option years, which no one else was going to, but they offered him a lot of other things as well. Swisher was born in Ohio. He spent his youth there. He returned to star for the Ohio State Buckeyes in college. So, while he has spent most of his career in the bright lights, he's a Buckeye at heart.

Yes- he will miss the short porch at Yankee Stadium, but Cleveland actually has it's own short porch in RF at 325, and actually has a shorter power alley in RC at 375 than Yankee Stadium. The Indians just haven't had anyone since Jim Thome left town that could really take advantage of it. While I cannot discount the fact that he will not be in nearly as good of a lineup, he will be in a position in the lineup that does offer some intrigue as far as production comes. He will likely be the Indians new clean-up hitter. He will have three decent bats in front of him in Brantley, Kipnis and Cabrera and then he will be "protected" by Carlos Santana.

The Swisher signing shows that Terry Francona has a plan, and that plan starts with bringing in a guy who will help keep the clubhouse light. It's what Swisher does. I can easily see him taking a guy like Stubbs under his wing and who knows what that can do. He takes the pressure off Kipnis and Santana is so many ways.

I do know one thing, Swisher will be glad to let his hair grow long and get the beard going, something he couldn't do in stodgy NY. And I can tell you right now, he is going to be a fan favorite in Cleveland, a town that knows how to rally around a guy who brings the kind of youthful enthusiasm to the ballpark that he does on a daily basis. He is also a beast on twitter and knows how to interact with the fan base. I hate to say that you are wrong, and yes as a fan I have my rose-colored glasses on here, but this a perfect match Dan.
Mastersball

“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein

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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:40 am

We're all wrong or right till it happens, Ryan.
Progressive Field is one of the worst home run hitting parks in the Majors. Listing the footage of a part of the right field line doesn't make it inviting for Swisher. The air currents help Yankee Stadium and Arlington Stadiums more than the footage themselves. In Coors, it is the air itself.

Swisher would fit in anywhere and be a crowd favorite at any location. Every city would make him just as as welcome as Cleveland. I think he would trade the facial hair for spending one more year in New York.
We don't really disagree on Swisher as much as you may think. I think his stats will suffer a little with the duo of a lesser team and more age, and if my reckoning is correct, he will get older with each year of his contract.
You think he will help the Indians, and he will.

To compare the Indians lineup with that of the Yankees, and to compare Progressive Field to Yankee Stadium is pure fandom.
A point of fact is that Swisher did not adjust his swing, left handed, to fit Yankee Stadium. So, we can expect the same hitter in Cleveland. Also on the good side of the ledger, he has always hit well at Progressive, but now, he won't be facing Indians pitching.
Swisher will be a swell obp guy who hits 20 homers and knocks in 80 runs.
Helping Drew Stubbs is just fantasy. Stubbs may get better with a change of scenery or actually taking a coach's request to cut down his swing and take more pitches, but playing next to Swisher won't rub off any of Swisher's obp Midas dust.

It's an unusual signing for Cleveland. Swisher is worth 14 million to teams that are contending. To teams like Cleveland, who should be pinching pennies, maybe 12-13 million over three years. Victorino is the same exact age as Swisher and only got a three year, 39 million deal in Boston.
Cleveland definitely overpaid. And to boot, they gave up the 43rd pick in the draft next year.
And as an Indians fan, I know that you know, that even as recent as 2009, Jason Kipnis was a second round selection.

You're right, Cleveland gets a great clubhouse guy with an infectious personality. Maybe that personality will eventually lead Cleveland to something like the Red Sox had with Damon and Millar under Francona.
The signing of Swisher gives you, an Indians fan hope. That is what all free agent signings are designed to do.
If it does that, and puts more fans in Indian seats, or even gives them a shot at a pennant in a few years, then it's a good signing.
You're happy and I'm wrong.
Until then, we're both right and wrong.
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Dec 30, 2012 7:44 am

I've got half an hour

6:15

We may have it all wrong. Greg is trying the 'unique' approach to drafts with a faster clock. I am trying to leave the clock at eight hours with the emphasis being that the clock is really only for sleep.
What we are trying to do is appeal to the majority. The majority want to move drafts along at a good pace.
This may be where we're wrong.
Instead of appealing to the majority, I feel a bone should be thrown to the minority.
Under 'Unique' drafts, I would also like to see a sign up for a draft that encourages taking six to eight hours a pick.
I feel this would accomplish a few things.
It would get the slower pickers out of our drafts.
It would let them have a draft suitable for their style.
And best, it would make them realize that a draft cannot be completed before opening Day, without more efficient drafters.
These fellas can be in the passing lane, driving 55 in a 75 and not be flipped the bird by us.
It would be their idea of Heaven. Let's give it to them.
Speedy Gonzalez replaced by Sluggo McGurk.
Energy drinks replaced by warm milk.
Dee Gordon being pinch run for by Rod Barajas.
Give these guys what they want.
Life in the slow lane.
No more, "Pardon us, can we play through?" from faster folks.
If sitting in a train, let them be in the caboose.
Long live the four corners offense!
Is it Christmas yet?
E-Mail means Envelope mail.
Oh good a computer virus, that'll slow this darn thing down.
They just found out Bin Laden is dead.
Let them have their draft!
Give them a 12 hour clock. Or 24. The more the merrier.
They got thinking to do, darn it.
Message Board comments can read, "Whoa, second pick of the draft, was completely caught off guard by the Braun selection, will need the full 24 for this one!"
And the other 14 will slowly (how else?) nod their heads in agreement. They would have said the same.
Grandfather clock, not a stop watch for these drafters.
Give them 24 hours.
They just want more time.
The least we can do is give it to them.

Slowing down or coming to a stop does remind me of a joke from years past.
A motorist was pulled over by a policeman for running a stop sign. When told of his offense by the officer, the motorist cried, "I slowed down right? That's the same as stopping!"
The Cop pulled out his nightstick and started beating the man over the head with it.
The Cop said, "Now Sir, would you like me to slow down or stop this?"

6:42
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by hot and cold » Sun Dec 30, 2012 10:13 am

i got the first signie a guy that just posted yesterday that he needed the whole 8 hrs last year . to pick braun in the 3rd round .i posted that he must have asked for extra time over the 8hrs when he got to his 20th round pick .come on taking 8 hrs for any 3rd round pick is crazy .Can't wait to draft with some real draftersthat don't hold up the draft .it seems that every draft i've been in this year has had one clown that seems to want to slow things down .in one the guy picking at the corner waited 6 hrs then picked . then left for 5 more hrs then came back and picked his next guy . had everyone lined up to pick but he didn't care .i agree that they should put all these like drafters in one draft and let them go at it .we could all do 4 complete drafts while they could be taking the whole 8 hrs for a 5th round pick and get done about all star break .

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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Ryan C » Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:27 pm

Hmmm....I only respond again Dan because it is fun to dig a little deeper.

Funny you brought up Victorino. He was the Tribes initial target and turned down more money ($44 million reportedly) NOT to play in Cleveland. They did overpay for Swisher clearly as he squeezed the extra option year out of them making it basically a 5 year - $70 million dollar deal. It still was worth it for this team.

I think you are missing an important fact by just calling Progressive Field one of the worst home run hitting parks in the majors. The facts are that the 19' wall in left field makes it one of the worst home run parks for RHB in the majors, and that percentage drags down their overall rank. Left-handed hitters do in fact prosper at Progressive field as it has the 10th (maybe 11th) best home run rate for lefties the last 4 years. And that is without having a guy in the lineup hit more that 30 homers. (Sizemore was the last to do it in 2008). So - it is fair to say that Swisher will like his new home. And, hey - Swisher only got to feast on Indians pitching - what - 8 times a year? Now he gets to trade the AL East for the AL Central. Which division has better starting pitching? I think it is obvious that Swisher wanted to either stay in NY or play in California to be in a place where his wife could pursue her career. None of those teams were a fit. So unlike Victorino, he took the Indians money and the pitch from Francona to become the leader of a young team. I do know one thing - the Swisher deal makes the Braves BJ Upton contract look pretty damn good doesn't it?

As far as penny-pinching goes, I call bs on that line of thought. Every major league team is owned by multi-millionaire/billionaires. Larry Dolan, who own the Indians, is no different. They have always had the money to spend, they just haven't always spent it on players . The little money they did spend in recent years blew up in their faces in the form of Hafner, Sizemore and Westbrook. Those are the only long-term contracts they gave out to veterans and in each case the player suffered injury and didn't come close to producing. It set the franchise back years. But even so, I restate that the Indians have always had money to spend. Just two years ago Forbes reported that the Indians frugal ownership made more profit than anyone in baseball. I suspect that they were near the top of the list again last year. It's their team, and they have decided to wring as much profit out of it as they could, and for fans that has meant putting an inferior product on the field for much of their tenure. The Dolan's sports network earned them plenty of dough each and every year. They just signed a sweetheart deal with Fox Sports that will make them millions more. Rumors are circulating that the hiring of Francona, and the freeing up of the budget are signs that the Dolan's are ready to sell the Indians, which this fan hopes is true.

Why is comparing the two lineups pure fandom? Because one wears pinstripes? I actually think there is some fun to be had there as well. Let's start with age:

Cleveland's projected lineup:

25, 25, 27, 32, 26, 29, 24, 28, 31 (if it's Aviles, but likely to be a mix of younger guys here as well)

Yankee Starting lineup:

39, 39, 30, 33, 31, 34, 25, 29, 24 (if it's romine catching)

The Indians are young and the Yankees are old. If you switch Arod (37) for Nunez (25) they get even older. How many games will Youkilis, Jeter and Tex miss this year combined? What do the Yankees have to replace them when they do? Nothing. The Indians best players are entering their prime years. Their window to do something with them is very small. The Yankees, save Cano and Grandy, are all past their collective primes. I think the young Yankee fans who have been spoiled rotten by the run started back in 1995 are about to get a taste of what things were like back in the 80's, when post season berths weren't a forgone conclusion. One can only hope at least that the Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays can push the Yankees down to battling with the Red Sox to say out of the cellar.

Okay - I'm done (for now). Thanks Dan for keeping the baseball juices flowing. Looking forward to more banter in the draft room soon.
Mastersball

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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:13 pm

Loved it, Ryan.
You're arguing poverty for a poor Cleveland lineup, while at the same time comparing the lineup to that of the Yankees.
Yes, this is fandom.
The ages really don't matter. The Yankees will stay old for years. They are not a franchise that uses young players much.
That argument is benign.

The Yankees had six players that hit at least 19 homers last year. The Indians, none.
I don't know whether it speaks to lineup or ball park or both.
But comparing the lineups are silly.
The Indians have a lineup that is more like the Royals. The Royals are more of a batting average team, while the Indians are turning into more of an obp team. Both, are not power ladened.

I already got in trouble via a PM with a Kansas City supporter. But both teams share a commonality. Both are owned by greedy ownership who are not giving their fan bases, great fan bases, a fair deal.
Colorado owners are the same way.
Still, those fan bases are taking a back seat to Mets and Marlins fans who would like to see their owners sell out even more.

Getting back to Swisher...I moved him down a little bit on fantasy lists. To me, that is a tell tale sign as to whether a player will be statistically better at another venue.
If you moved him up, then you truly believe that Swisher will prosper more for the Tribe than pinstripes.
I'm looking at a few less home runs and less rbi and runs.
His main attributes are not totally fantasy related. His personality and durability.
So a Cleveland fan would be more excited by the addition than a fantasy player.
I'll just keep it at that.

By the way, I love the give and take.
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Ryan C » Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:20 am

Well...looking at the rankings I submitted to Todd - I see that Swisher didn't crack my Top 15 at 1B and if I had ranked him in the OF, I am doubtful he would have cracked my Top 40 there either. So I don't disagree so much with your take on his perceived "fantasy" value. I do however think he looks pretty good where he does sit in my rankings, and heck I think you are probably right in thinking that the move to Cleveland takes his stock down a touch mor. If that in fact happens, so much the better for the drafter that scoops him up on the cheap. He went in the 13th round of my (our) early draft, and I think that's about right, but now I think I might be inclined to see if he slips even further if the group-think follows what I think is a slightly flawed point of view. I think his greatest fantasy asset is still his consistency, and I don't see it really affected at all for the coming season at the very least. What will be interesting is to see if he can stick as the cleanup hitter for the Indians.
Mastersball

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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:43 am

It's funny, I never thought about it much before, but Swisher has turned himself into a better real player than fantasy player. That is hardly said about a guy who has a consistent 25-90 past.
In Swisher's case though, the Yankees will miss Swisher himself, more than his 25-90. Garrett Jones can come in and be the same stat guy as Swisher, but like the rest of the Yankees, Jones would do it as if pall bearing at Yogi Berra's funeral.
Swisher breathed life into the Yankees. The rest of the Yankees have taken 'been there, done that' to a new high....or low.

Swisher will do the same for the Indians. And while over paid, there is another substance of Swisher that the Yankees did not price, goodwill.
Swisher brings the professionialism of a player who has been there and done that along with the personality of a guy continuing the phrase, 'Been there, done that, shoot, let's have fun and do it again!'

Swisher is a player that the Royals could/should have over paid for too. It's not enough to sign a frontline starter. An everyday player like Swisher needs to be infused and with the hole the Royals have in right field, Swisher would have been perfect if the Royals were serious about competing. They NEED a 'been there, done that' everyday guy.
As is, Cleveland has him and will enjoy the benefits.
It's easy to picture Swisher introducing himself to each person of the Tribe's organization from the owner down to the bat boy this spring training. And at the same time, it is easy to picture Kevin Youkilis thumbing through his 'Excuse Book' in an effort to avoid a bus trip to a Kissimmee spring training game.
Thank you, Youkilis fans, I'll be here all week......
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:04 pm

I've got half an hour

4:20

I like to say we're all stupid. Because, well....WE ARE!
We'll draft guys like BJ Upton, or his brother, or Desmond Jennings, or Adam Jones, or even Andrew McCutchen.
We'll draft these fellas with dreams of five category dominance dancing in our heads.
And lo and behold, Mike Trout is the guy we should have taken for that dominance.
Nobody drafted him well ahead of his adp and knew he would be the player he turned out to be.
Trout was the upside down airplane of postage stamps. The cigarette Honus Wagner of baseball cards.
He was right in front of us, and nobody expected what he did.

No matter how radical we get with our fantasy selves there is one thing that holds us all back.
Our common sense.
Common sense told us not to bite early on Mike Trout.
He was too tired to play effectively in the AFL. He was to start the year in the minor leagues.
The Angels outfield was full enough.
During a slow draft, I witnessed a give and take over who would have more significance during the following year, Bourjos or Trout.
The Trout drafter never envisioned what Trout would do.

And you know what?
Very few of us expects him to have even better numbers this year.
We are a funny lot. When Chase Headley was at AAA, we couldn't believe the Padres were not calling him up.
The Padres sucked and Headley was tearing it up.
When he got the call, he was ok, nothing great.
Now that he has a year where he played up to expectations, few believe he will repeat it.
Missouri/Missouri has surely taken effect here.
Missouri/Missouri is the 'show me twice' mentality that a lot of fantasy players follow.

While we can't believe our eyes in watching Trout and Headley have their breakout years. We think to ourself, 'Self, surely, he can't do that again'.
And as a way of supporting Missouri/Missouri, their adp's become more expensive.
The adp forces us to be true believers in a players chances of repeating a season or to fall into the Missouri/Missouri theorum and if either pass the test this year, we'll test the waters the year after.

We don't like surprises. We prefer a steady march up the ladder. Andrew McCutchen had his best year. But, his adp has matched his home run rate. 16, 23, and 31 home runs have risen him from a 4/5 rounder to 2/3 rounder to this year being a 1st rounder.
We're more comfortable with this progression. But, is that what wins leagues?
Sometimes I think we have to have more Stupid in us than common sense.
Common sense leads us to the middle of the road, then over to the sidewalk when a car like Mike Trout comes rumbling down the street.
I wanna be in that Mike Trout car instead of trying to avoid it sometime.
Juricson Profar and other prospects will get longer looks this year.
Bryce Harper will have an ever-rising adp.
It may not be because a drafter truly believes in Profar or Harper. At the same time, that drafter wants to side swipe the common sensers and knock them on their asses like Trout owners last year.
This year may be a lot more wide open then last year. Adp may be out the window for some picks who drafters feel can dominate.
It should be a fun thing to watch next year.
And we are all just Stupid enough to think that we can be the one to pull it off in 2013.

5:00
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:27 am

I've got half an hour

8:40

Today is my favorite day of the off season.
That's right, it's better than those immortal four words, 'Pitchers and Catchers Report'. It is better than the first spring training game (although it would be different if living in Fla. or Arz)
Today begins the downhill slide to Opening Day. The halfway mark of the off season.

The important free agent signings have taken place. Once again the Angels seemed to have surprised all with their thievery of the most sought after free agent. On paper, the Angels, Dodgers, and Blue Jays look a lot better than when last season ended. A funny thing happens to teams that look good on paper though. Just ask the Angels of last year.
The MLB talking heads are crowing about the Blue Jays....the same way they were this time of year about the Marlins of last year.

These talking heads are making the same mistakes drafters make in fantasyland. They are placing 'value' on players during the off season. And they never learn. Quietly, teams like the Nationals, Cardinals, Giants, Rays, Tigers, and Reds are making little moves that improve their teams. These teams have made the playoffs before.
But, talking heads like BIG SPLASHES. Like being in an auction and spending tons of money on Trout and Braun. If a fantasyland drafter did that, the fantasy fantasy baseball channel would be all over him like Rice on Jerry.

Slow and steady does not make for good tv. At least till it comes to playoff time. Then, these same talking heads exalt these teams for the way 'they went about their business'.

I didn't really mean to take that direction. It's the difference between being a writer and a poster. A writer has to have his articles neat and tidy while I roam.
Anyway, I was talking about the off season. Bourn, Lohse, and Soriano are the three 'big' free agents left.
I'm of the opinion that Lohse cannot land in a better situation than the one he is leaving. Even if signing with San Diego, Seattle, or another pitchers park, his Wins take a hit. I've lowered Lohse on my lists.
Bourn looks to be a sideways move almost anywhere he signs. A judy can be a judy anywhere. He'll have the green light, he'll lead off, he'll slap the ball and steal bases and score runs.
He's a good judy and more than likely, he'll have more of an impact for fantasy teams than his real team.
Soriano is a wild card. If signing with the Tigers, he becomes a higher echelon Closer. If signing with the Cubs or another lowly thought of team, he becomes an average looking Closer. If re-signing with the Yankees or another team that makes him a set-up guy, he becomes an afterthought.

Just want to add one more thing. I said Bourn would be better for his fantasy team than his real team. I believe that. I also believe that about a high priced pitcher that the MLB and everybody else seems to be trumpeting.
Zack Greinke.
He is like a King of peripherals.
Pitching-wise, he is the Adrian Gonzalez of peripherals.
Greinke, like Gonzalez, has a knack for playing on teams that don't win.
In 2011, when the Brewers did make it to the playoffs, Greinke sported a 6.48 ERA in three games.
Greinke, like Gonzalez has never been thought of as a 'winner'.
It's true, these guys had to make their bones in Loserville destinations like Kansas City and San Diego. Now that they've graduated from those purgatories, they are not the first players we think of when we think of 'winners'.
Along with Carl Crawford, who is either unlucky, cursed, or jinxed, and Josh Beckett who will forever have beer and chicken on his baseball breath, the Dodgers have accumulated one of the best 'on paper' teams in history.
It'll be fascinating watching that team as they eat away at competition or watch flesh eating disease take place in a baseball form.

This post has been all over the place. Sorry. I took a lot of license. My mind has a tendency to wonder through the baseball universe in half an hour.
I remember looking at a fantasy roster once and seeing that their were no west division players. I selected Preston Wilson, mostly for a reason to stay up and watch baseball. After Wilson had a career year, I was lauded for the pick.
Stupid really, we sometimes take players for stupid reasons that make us look smart.....and there I go again...

9:24
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:15 am

I've got half an hour

8:50

According to RotoWorld, Shawn Marcum is being pursued by the Royals, Twins, Padres, and Indians.
A little like having the four ugliest women in a bar hitting on you.
Sometimes I wonder if players think of these Loserville franchises as 'Sugar Mama's'.
You know, Marcum is the 26 year old centerfold and the Royals, Twins, Padres, and Indians are Hugh Hefner.

One of my favorite players that I never saw was Tony Lazzeri. It's funny how we have favorite players that we never saw.
Well, I guess I should just speak for myself. It's a little like saying Medusa was the prettiest woman I never saw.
But Medusa didn't have Tony's stats and never won a World Series.
Lazzeri had the most famous strike out in baseball history when Grover Cleveland Alexander struck him out with the bases loaded in Game 7 of the 1926 World Series. Alexander was drunk, not thinking that he'd be summoned after pitching a full game the day before.
Lazzeri was the glue of 'Murderers Row' and Hall of Fame voters missed on him too as he had to get in around 40 years after his death by a veterans committee.
And, just a little trivia...Both Lazzeri and Alexander suffered from epilepsy.

I thought about Lazzeri while watching 'Jack Reacher', which was a fun flick.
In the movie, Jack Reacher calls himself Jimmie Reese. Later, he explains that Reese was a 2B for the Yanks in 1925 when actually it was at a later time.
Reese roomed with Babe Ruth for a year or two.
Or, as Reese liked to say, "I didn't room with Babe Ruth, I roomed with his luggage."

Moving from the past....
I have a bet with a friend that Mike Trout neither reaches 30 home runs or 30 stolen bases this year.
I like Trout. And I love watching him play. And my friend is already counting on that bag of Doritos by August.
But, we're a funny lot.
We don't expect injuries or under performance.
In fact, most things that don't continue to happen from last year are considered a 'surprise' to us.
I kind of hope I lose the bet. I like watching Trout play. But Trout is a reckless player. Certainly, an all or nothing first round selection.
Even though Braun, Cabrera, and Trout are grouped together as the top three in most drafts, Trout is vastly different from the other two.
He's young and stupid. Two strikes and last year, he never got the third.
My bet is that this year, he will.

Along the same lines, last year I received several e-mails telling me I was crazy that last year would mark the beginning of the end for Roy Halladay. It's never easy to see a guy dominate for so long...and then simply, don't.
Halladay has lost an inch or two off his fast ball. I don't think he admitted that to himself last year. He pitched as if nothing had happened and bad things happened.
Halladay is smart enough to know shortcomings. It just may take him awhile. Who knows, he may have already recognized that he can't pitch the same way.
Halladay has a chance to be something rare this year.
The crafty right hander.
If he is, he can go back to having a great year.
If not, a longer year than last year.

9:15
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Captain Hook » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:37 am

well I don't have half an hour - or at least hope I don't since I anticipate being able to make my first pick at 1.09 in the PVY league (Patrick B. Young was a friend of mine who participated for several years in my early season "draft prep leagues" and then for a year or two in the NFBC in Vegas. So here are my thoughts approaching what many might think a poor draft slot...

As I wait for my first pick in the PBY – sitting 9th in this draft – aside from who the drafters in the top half leave – who do I WANT to be there? Could Matt Kemp fall that far? Seems odd, but he went at 1.08 in the JBL. Rankings wise Joey Votto who if he can stay healthy might have his best run production year with Shin-Soo Choo leading off figures to be there and he lasted until 1.11 in the prior draft.
Actually I went through all the scenarios over the long holiday weekend and had zeroed in on Carlos Gonzalez. But it’s not that easy – first he has to stay healthy all year; second his home/road splits are terrible and what happens if he were to get traded? (not so far fetched as both Texas and Miami make sense)
Meanwhile I just have to wait and see what the choices really are ……damn I hate waiting

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Re: A Half Hour

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:01 pm

Captain Hook wrote:well I don't have half an hour - or at least hope I don't since I anticipate being able to make my first pick at 1.09 in the PVY league (Patrick B. Young was a friend of mine who participated for several years in my early season "draft prep leagues" and then for a year or two in the NFBC in Vegas. So here are my thoughts approaching what many might think a poor draft slot...

As I wait for my first pick in the PBY – sitting 9th in this draft – aside from who the drafters in the top half leave – who do I WANT to be there? Could Matt Kemp fall that far? Seems odd, but he went at 1.08 in the JBL. Rankings wise Joey Votto who if he can stay healthy might have his best run production year with Shin-Soo Choo leading off figures to be there and he lasted until 1.11 in the prior draft.
Actually I went through all the scenarios over the long holiday weekend and had zeroed in on Carlos Gonzalez. But it’s not that easy – first he has to stay healthy all year; second his home/road splits are terrible and what happens if he were to get traded? (not so far fetched as both Texas and Miami make sense)
Meanwhile I just have to wait and see what the choices really are ……damn I hate waiting

I know what you mean, Perry.
I am in the 12th spot.
CarGo is not a choice for me. I had him and Dexter Fowler on a team last year and began benching them when going on road trips. Here I was platooning my first round draft pick! And, I was better off for it!
Sometimes splits tell a lot more about a hitter than ct% or BABIP, especially when it comes to Rockies players.
CarGo has a Rockies friendly contract, it would take A LOT of players to pry him from ownership. The Rockies get away with putting less product on the field in banking that CarGo and Tulo will put fannies in the seats.
And, it works.
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Re: A Half Hour

Post by Captain Hook » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:18 pm

and like that the thought process was irrelevant as someone early in the draft took Votto so that at 1.07 Cano, McCutchen, and Joey Bats were all available and that was the order in which they were drafted ....so I started this team with Bautista

as they say just one word > youneverknow

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