Beating ADP...Like Beating a Seal

[DOUGHBOYS]

It takes a lot to get me pissed anymore. I even watched the whole 'State of the Union' address last night and didn't get upset.
And that's tough when I look at our President and think of him as more of a talk show host than leader of the free world.
The other day, I exchanged e-mails with an NFBC veteran. The e-mails were about 'value'.

I haven't gone on a rant in a long time, but I may during this post.
First, we are all stupid. If we weren't, you wouldn't be reading this and I wouldn't be writing it. We follow a hobby, a passion, a past time that has us firmly by the sacks. Most of us don't need the money. Most of us just want to be the best. And, when playing in the NFBC, the best of the best. And deep in the recesses of our hearts and minds, we know we deserve the eye rolls and quick change of subject from those we all know and love.
And don't care.
We are driven, and there's nothing we can do about it....Well there is, but pulling a Walla Walla is not for most of us.

Right now, I'm involved with two drafts and a steady stream of conversation about each player available with the Advisory Board. In one of these drafts, Jose Reyes was taken in the third round followed up with Brett Lawrie. The Jose Reyes declared 'VALUE' and fellow drafters lauded him for his pick.
Yes, they congratulated him on a great pick. This is the same player these same drafters had pushed into the third round. All had a chance to draft him. All passed. They didn't want him. But now picked, he's a great pick.
Look, there are no stupid picks, just stupid pickers. And I've said 'nice pick' before too, but it was because they took somebody I felt I would want to roster. I didn't want to roster Reyes for this team and passed. I didn't say 'nice pick.
For me, the crowning point was the drafter claiming 'value'. Not just as a jab at me, but really meaning it.
I seethed.

Ok, it's gonna be a rant...
It was as if he had already won the league! In his mind, ticker tape was falling from tall New York buildings and he was doing his Queen wave to his adoring public.
Bah!
We exchanged e-mails, but it was fruitless. In his mind, he was still in that slow moving car spitting out ticker tape.
He told me that it was all semantics. That I can call it a bargain or value or anything, all he knew was that he got the pick of the draft. He kept reminding me that he had drafted Jose Reyes with the 35th pick.
Why, even those smart guys at the NFBC had an adp of 22 for him!
I'll bet Halladay drafters got the same kudo's last year.
While Dickey drafters drew rolled eyes 12 rounds later.
Beating adp is like beating a seal.
The seal, like adp remains almost still. And after the deed is done,some will declare victory.
I just don't get it. There's nothing gained except a roster spot.
Uggh.


Folks, it is not semantics. He drafted a speed guy at a short position. Nobody else in this draft wanted a shortstop with speed in the second round.
Big deal!
Have you ever had the thought about where our adp comes from?
It comes from folks who are 80 per cent losers and won't cash in leagues.
It comes from over 90 per cent of us that will lose our leagues.
In effect, 'beating' the adp is beating a bunch of losers!
Did one person crow about getting Mike Trout in the 30th round last year, instead of the 27th?
Nope.
And he sure as Hell didn't declare VALUE either.

When we say 'nice pick', most of us mean it. It means we thought highly of the player taken.
Well that is, unless you're Gekko. It is his way of thanking you for taking a player he had no interest in. Which I can respect a lot more than these stupid drafters saying 'nice pick' on a player they obviously had no interest in at his adp rate.
These guys were all bringing sand to the beach.
Just useless.

So anyway, this pick was followed up by the Brett Lawrie pick.
Let the cat calls commence! These drafters were sharpening all their tools to stab this drafter in the eye.
'Way too soon!' 'What Already?' 'Stupid pick' 'You could have had him later!'
Yeah, real sharp.
The drafter undeterred, said that Lawrie was still the same player and was taken in the third round last year and expects to have his breakout year, a year late.
He was told that the NFBC had a 67 adp for him.
Rightly, he responded he didn't care. His thinking was that he could deliver first or second round numbers better than those with lower adp's.
And still the comments flowed for the next few rounds.
I, personally would not take Lawrie that high either, but I respect the drafter for believing in his player.
Brett Lawrie will be one of those players not on my roster this year that I'll be rooting for.
Stupid drafters.

Since I'm on the subject of adp....
Can I voice how stupid I think that adp thing is that gives us green numbers for a 'win' and red numbers for a 'loss' ?
Again, most of the adp is made up by losers. True, the best losers in the world, but still by percentage, losers.
And it is long forgotten once the season begins as to whether any of our players were a green number or red number.
I call it the 'Valometer'.
It's a lot like drafting at MDC and comparing your picks at the end of the draft with one man's decisions put into software form.
For some reason, it'll validify (I don't think that's a real word) (but it should be) some drafters and make them feel good about their, ahem, 'value'.

By now, we should all have our own adp. Some of it should match NFBC, some of it won't.
For me, NFBC adp is strictly a tool to 'finesse' picks. Most of you know that finessing a pick means that you may really want a player like Lawrie, but instead of picking him in the third as that drafter did, we 'finesse' him till the fourth, knowing that the majority, or adp, do not like him as much as I. Sometimes it works, sometimes not.

'Average Drafted Player'. It reminds me that if followed to the letter, we will get average players.
We don't win leagues with average players.
My real thought for adp during a draft is 'Any Damned Player' I want. This reminds me that I'm not hamstrung by other opinions and the next pick could be the best player in the draft. Not an average player.
Rambling rant complete.
Picking up my podium and putting it back in the closet.
Thanks for the listen.

[JEagle]

I couldn't agree anymore with everything you just wrote!

[Atlas]

I would find it interesting drafting without the benefit of anyone having ADP.

[Bronx Yankees]

I would find it interesting drafting without the benefit of anyone having ADP.

It was one of the most fun aspects of participating in the first draft championship of the season in November. We were all drafting together "in the dark" without ADPs to serve as a guide or a crutch.