Screw the Best, Let's Look at the WORST

[DOUGHBOYS]

Gomes, Yan C,1B CLE
Navarro, Dioner C CHC
Moss, Brandon 1B,OF OAK
Descalso, Daniel 2B,3B,SS STL
Headley, Chase 3B SD
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL
Joyce, Matt OF TB
Nava, Daniel 1B,OF BOS
Reddick, Josh OF OAK
Revere, Ben OF PHI
Werth, Jayson OF WAS
Escobar, Yunel SS TB
Francisco, Juan 1B,3B MIL
Stanton, Giancarlo OF MIA

I look at this offense, and I think to myself that it's not an offense I would want, but not horrible at the same time.
I mean sure, he's had to wait for Chase Headley to come back from injury only to wish he'd have stayed injured.
That even, Juan Uribe wouldn't have hurt him at 3b as much as Headley.
And the injuries to Tulo, Stanton, and now Revere hasn't helped. And the two catchers who are really part timers in Gomes and Navarro are meager.
Ok, this is a pretty bad offense.
But still, I wouldn't call it 'horrible'.
Just, not good.

And, I'd be wrong.
It is the worst offense in the Main Event Leagues this year. I don't know about you, but I tire of hearing about who's leading this or who's leading that. I wanna know what's going on in NFBC Hell, not Heaven.
Sometimes, I wanna know what NOT to do in my next draft.
I am not gonna go over this draft and pick on him or his choices, but it may seem that way, so forget this sentence.
I'll just try to point out some of the traps that he may have fallen into.

The first being, Troy Tulowitzki.
To draft Tulo is to have supreme confidence in your offensive drafting ability. Because in drafting Tulo, we have to assume now, that he will miss, at the least, a month of the season. The rest of the offense has to be tidy to afford a predictable injury like Tulo's and the hit taken in losing a first round pick for a month.

It looks like he bookended Stanton with Tulo.
Stanton was a trap. His physique lures drafters. But, his own physique is one of his traps. Let's look at plusses and minuses for Stanton......
He has only one plus, he can hit the ball a mile. That's it. No more, no less. Sometimes this can be a good plus. Look at Chris Davis, for goddssakes.
For Stanton though, this is his only plus.
His minuses distance him from Davis.....

His body is so tight, he's highly susceptible to pulled muscles. As an owner, you never want to see Stanton give maximum effort. We want our players to have tendons of taffy, able to give with pulls. Stanton's hamstrings are like 150 pound tested lines trying to reel in a 300 pound fish. It doesn't work.
He plays on a team where nobody gets on in front of him and offers little protection behind him. Thanks Marlins!
He plays in a huge ball park. Even the big bully on the beach needs to carry a light girl every once in awhile. All of Stanton's home home runs have to be earned.
And on a personal note, not only is it a big park on television, it's ugly too.
It looks like the bottom of an aquarium. Which is great for the Marlin theme, but ball players are using it, not fish.
Major League it up a little, willya Marlins?
His only friendly road park within the division is Philly. Atlanta, New York, and Washington are either fair or 'pitchers parks'.
Last, Stanton is built for a home run hitting contest. A sprint, not a marathon.
In short, he has an 80 game season body in a 162 game season sport.

After making these two picks, the drafter could not afford Chase Headley. Headley was great during the second half of last year. Like me in drafting Headley for some of my teams, he thought that Headley being drafted later after being pushed down adp by a season opening injury, would be a bargain.
And like me, he was wrong.
Headley, in two words, has sucked.
He's the worst kind of player to have on our roster. One that is hurt, then, does not perform.
And Headley has done both superbly this year.
Especially after selecting Stanton and Tulo, Headley was a horrible pick, no matter what round. The risk overrides the so-called value for Headley.
As drafters, we can only dodge so many bullets. This drafter was loading six bullets in a six shooter and playing Russian Roulette.

This team features Daniel Nava. Although Nava is now hitting like Daniel Nava and not Dustin Pedroia, he still, has put up numbers that far exceeded his owners expectations.
Nava and Tulo's partial year are this team's best producers.
The two catchers show me that he drafted catchers that were hurt or did not perform.
Descalso tells me the same about 2b.
Reddick was/is a disappointment.
Joyce, a shot in the dark.
Werth, off and on with injury problems of his own.
And, he has Granderson, David Murphy, Profar, and Grant Green on the bench.
This illustrates how bad David Murphy has been this year in that he has been benched by the worst offense in the NFBC.
In owning Profar and Green, it shows this owner has not given up and that he's deserving of kudo's in that department.

So, let's see how bad this offense is in relation to the 435 teams that make up the NFBC Main Event.
It is an especially consistently bad offense in that it ranks in the 400's in every offensive category.

In batting average, it is 411 of 435. Team batting average of .250.
This average has a long way to go in being worst.
The last place team in batting average is hitting .234

In runs, this team is bad. Revere is the only true run scorer, and now he's gone.
This team ranks 433 of 435 and has scored 453 runs. Still, no worries about being on the bottom this week.
The last place team in runs, has only 377.

In HR, like batting average, this team is 411 of 435. Just 112 homers.
I'm sure he expected more of Tulo,Stanton, Headley, and Granderson.
But in shopping for 'value' on draft day in having these power guys drop in adp because of injury, he found out that there is little value in having big strong guys like Stanton, Tulo, Granderson, and Headley on his bench.
Last place in homers is a paltry 92.

In rbi, this team is 430 of 435.
Same villians. It's the perfect illustration that the first few rounds of a draft cannot make a winner, but can determine a loser. RBI are tied to homers and batters coming through in times of opportunity. The draft did not afford those opportunities.
Last in rbi is 347. An average of just three rbi a day!

In SB, this team is 414 of 435.
Revere and Granderson is the team speed.
Still, this team has twice as many SB's (52) as the last place team in steals (26)

How in the world does a team only have 26 stolen bases?
Glad you asked. Here it is.

Arencibia, J.P. C TOR
Brantly, Rob C MIA
Moss, Brandon 1B,OF OAK
Barney, Darwin 2B CHC
Moustakas, Mike 3B KC
Escobar, Yunel SS TB
Bruce, Jay OF CIN
Kubel, Jason OF ARI
Ross, Cody OF ARI
Smith, Seth OF OAK
Trumbo, Mark 1B,OF LAA
Cabrera, Asdrubal SS CLE
Machado, Manny 3B BAL

I would guess Manny Machado is the fastest base runner of these 14 sloth's, only because he is the youngest.
If ever a drafter back burnered speed or totally ignored it, it is this owner.
At least he doesn't have to waste faab money going after stolen bases, that horse left the barn a long time ago.


So, what have we learned?

We've learned not to ignore a category.
We've learned that too much 'value' in lesser adp because of injury is a bad thing. Not 'value' at all.
As said before, SCREW ADP!
There's a reason why Tulo and Stanton and Granderson and Headley are available. It's because the smart guys really don't want them!
Their adp drops a little, and VOILA! Value picks are born!
Trap!
Next year, Matt Kemp and even Bryce Harper will fall into the same category as Tulo and Stanton.
The talent immense. The injury predictable.
Is it wrong to draft one of these fellas hoping against hope that they break the curse that befalls them every year?
No.
But it is wrong, to draft two of them.

[CASS]

I believe Lindys team in the main has granderson and Tulo. I''d say based on his results he is certainly 'smart".

[DOUGHBOYS]

Lindy does, and I knew that.
Lindy has the ability and confidence in himself to pair Tulo with somebody hurt going into a season.
I tried in that post not to link Granderson too closely with Tulo and Stanton.
Granderson is more like Headley, in that his adp was lowered because of an injury going into the season, but unlike Headley in so many more ways.
Headley has really only proved himself over two months time during his career. Granderson's numbers are supportable by time.
Even though Granderson will come out of this year with less playing time and maybe lesser numbers than Headley, he will probably be taken higher in drafts next year.
My final line was more about the pairing of Tulo and Stanton than one of those two plus either Headley or Stanton, my bad.

[CASS]

hey i'm with you - that entire list was of no interest to me on draft day. I'm risk adverse though....from years of being beat down by injuires i could have avoided.

[DOUGHBOYS]

hey i'm with you - that entire list was of no interest to me on draft day. I'm risk adverse though....from years of being beat down by injuires i could have avoided.

More or less, I'm the same way.
I stayed away from CarGo for the same reason and I deserve to be 'cup checked' for that one.

[Outlaw]

I fell for the Tulo and Stanton trap on a few teams this year and last year, thinking it couldnt happen 2 years in a row. Live and learn and I'm looking at the rosters of the leaders and they stay away from injury risk, and have value, solid players all over thier rosters. Something I knew to be wary of, but I still let ADP influence me again this year. Next year I'm dialing down ADP influence in a major way. In fact, I'll probaby create my first undraftable list ever, no matter what ADP says.