Really?
These first drafters are only leaving a trail. An ADP trail.
For some reason, we think we need a guide. It sides with the 'More information is better' crowd. The problem being that these 'more information is good' folks have yet to sort the good information from the bad.
I'm not saying the drafters in the first few leagues may be stupid (even though I was one of them), I'm just saying that even though somebody blazed a trail first, it may not be the best road to our destination.
I get criticized for my 'Screw ADP' approach. I don't care much. ADP, really, is simply replacing 'experts' rankings with our own.
It is merely a step up. Not that we're that much smarter than 'experts'. It's just that we in the NFBC all have the same rules and goals. An 'experts' rankings is a do it all approach for the most part. Good for eight, ten, twelve, and 15 team leagues. Good for roto, head to head, or any other rules.
Simply put, NFBC ADP is streamlined for the NFBC player.
For some godforsaken reason, drafters think of ADP as 'value'.
Stupid really.
None of us know the true value of a player before the season begins.
If we did, this game would be damned boring.
And if we did, Matt Kemp would not have been the fifth player chosen last year according to ADP or 'value'.
Last year, Chris Davis ADP was 119. His ADP came after other first basemen like Ike Davis and Paul Konerko.
No, really, it did.
Those who chose Chris Davis at pick 150 claimed 'value'. In reality, they were just lucky or even stupider than others. Yet, that drafter was rewarded.
I have more respect for the drafter who took Davis at pick number 85 in being right about Davis, than the guy who took him at 150, claiming 'value' and 'settling' for Davis.
We never get 'value' at a draft. Never. We cheat ADP and call it 'value'. Since football is fresh in folks minds, Ray Rice went in the first round of almost any draft.
If any drafter got him even in the second round, would he have gotten 'value'?
The answer is a big NO.
The results are now known. Ray Rice is a bust. For some reason, we declare 'value' before it's realized.
It's ass backwards.
Cheating ADP is cheating ADP. That's all. 'Value' is just a buzz word.
In cheating ADP, some folks like to think they are ahead of the curve.
They're not.
The player is the important thing. If cheating ADP with Ray Rice, you've only cheated yourself. If cheating ADP with Chris Davis, your team is looking good.
Our lists all go from top to bottom. When it is our turn to draft, many things run through our mind....
Who is next on my list
What position do I need?
What category do I need most?
Hitter or pitcher?
How many categories can this drafted player cover?
Will this guy be here next round?
It is that last question where some depend too much on ADP. They fool themselves into thinking that a composite ADP will remain true for their draft. Forgetting that each draft is like a fingerprint, all different.
Lets make an example of a stupid drafter who is married to ADP.
He is drafting 12th. His goal for the first two rounds is to nab a power infielder and back him with an ace pitcher.
But, instead of going by his own list, he is already thinking of ADP, and cheating it.
The top player available on his list is Prince Fielder, who has an ADP of 10. Fielder fits his plan.
But, Matt Kemp, who is lower than Fielder on HIS OWN list has dropped to him.
He wasn't much of a thought, thinking he wouldn't be available.
Kemp has an ADP of 5.
He drafts Kemp.
Ugh.
In this case, he has let the populace make his pick for him. He claims 'value'. He's happy and so are the other drafters that now do not have to give Kemp a notion.
After making this pick, he thinks the odds will be higher that Fielder will make it back to him in the second round, simply because ADP tells him so.
Fielder doesn't make it back. He is selected by picker 13.
He now crosses his fingers that he'll get Verlander, Kershaw, or Strasburg. He had gone into this draft wanting a good hitting infielder and ace starter with his first two picks.
Kershaw goes 14.
Verlander goes 15.
Tulowitzki goes 15.
Longoria goes 14.
Strasburg goes 13.
He picks Josh Hamilton.
Drafter 13, despite being one pick BEHIND him has his 'hoped for' start!
Instead of having Fielder and possibly his starting pitcher (Kemp may have altered another drafters plan), he is stuck with two outfielders.
Two outfielders that cheat ADP.
Two outfielders, as we know now, had very little value.
He claims 'value', but ADP just kicked his ass.
Nobody else in a draft should know who we really covet or our plan. That is the beauty of each draft. Last year, Matt Kemp was a land mine, not 'value'. For being a land mine last year, he'll be ADP 'ed in the third round this year. It's the way ADP works, we spank a player for fooling us. But, we were fooled a lot last year.
Here is the ADP first round from last year.....
Miguel Cabrera
Mike Trout
Ryan Braun
Robinson Cano
Matt Kemp
Andrew McCutchen
Joey Votto
Albert Pujols
Carlos Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Troy Tulowitzki
Giancarlo Stanton
Justin Verlander
Stephen Strasburg
Clayton Kershaw
Not many of these players after Cabrera and Trout truly returned value. I might even say that after Cabrera and Trout, we were downright stupid as composite drafters. Cheating ADP in this case, is like copying off the dumbest kid in the class, then going out on the playground and bragging about how good the grade is going to be.
It is only till those grades are seen that we realize the 'value' of copying off the dumbest kid in class.
DRAFT A PLAYER YOU LIKE OR IS IN YOUR PLAN.
I can't stress that enough. If losing, we'll have known that we lost with OUR players.
Sure, there are going to be many times during a draft in which you'll want two players. You know that maybe one player will make it back to you, simply because ADP says so. You shouldn't have to physically look at ADP before deciding. That ADP should be in your head.
We try to 'finesse' a pick.
Last year, Chris Davis, Mike Morse, and Middlebrooks were together in our ADP (How smart does ADP look now
)If in your draft, everybody leading back to you has a 1B, there is a chance we'll be lucky enough to get Davis in the next round. So, we take Middlebrooks.
We're finessing Davis in hopes that other drafters will not look at him positionally.
But, he is taken.
How did that turn out for us?
If liking Davis, or Davis fit our plan more than Morse or Middlebrooks, we just let positioning or finessing in a draft dictate our choice.
It's crazy. Don't do that!
If wanting to finesse a player, pick the one most coveted by yourself, not others.
We forget during a draft that we'll have to live with these players for the next six months. We'll wonder why we chose Middlebrooks. We didn't even care for him much. We got Chris Davis on other teams because we liked him. If we're lucky, we won't remember that we screwed ourselves during this draft in exchanging Middlebrooks for Davis.
Over the next four and a half months, you are going to hear the word 'value' 2,109,462 times.
Go ahead, count 'em if you don't believe me!
No matter the pick, no matter the draft, nobody has 'value'.
Not a soul.
