More About Projections

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've stated before that I don't like projections. Charts, stats, splits, computers, self analysis, last year, three years, career years, PED's, Numerish, K's, BB, whatever. Whomever does projections uses some or all of the preceding words. But, there is one of those words that overtakes the others.
Self analysis. When it comes down to it, projections are creations of the author. A short story in projectile version.
Some swear by their projections. Fresh after finishing a Main Event, a man committed to his projections told me that my picks even beat his and that he rated me as the favorite to win that league.
I scoffed.
I find projections a waste of time. No player is immune to a freak injury. When a projectionist gets the number of games right or even nearly right for each player, I'll listen. Till then, I know that Prince Fielder is a 25/30 home run guy with 100 rbi. And I don't care whether the the home runs are projected at 25 or 30. Nobody goes back and scolds a projectionist for missing by a few homers.

Most projectionist, whether they admit it or not are ''stuck in the middle' projectionists. To color outside the lines opens one up to skepticism. Everybody gives Carlos Gonzalez close to 30/30 numbers. Like us, they can't foresee injury, so they forget it. They act as if CarGo won't get hurt. Then the next year, that projectionist will reckon that his numbers would have been close on CarGo IF he wouldn't have been hurt.
That's so wrong!
Project the injury!
The future is being projected by performance. Project the non-performance as well. Project that he won't play in September. Project that he's a five month player.
I do.
Even without projecting it. I just look at CarGo's name and think to myself, 'Five month player.'
Not so tough.
Projecting injury is far more difficult than projecting performance. This is why it is widely ignored. If a projector thinks that Jacoby Ellsbury will get hurt AND he is projecting the injury, he has to decide on giving him a minimum 15 day trip to the disabled list or two months.
That is tough.

Projections have a use. Just not much for NFBC players. Unless making projections as a way of doing your own rankings and factoring in injury as well.
Projections otherwise, are for the Yahoo Kids and players who need a little help with their own study. This encompasses 95% of the fantasy community. It is why we see projections in magazines and on websites. It is why folks call radio shows and ask who they like and for their projections on certain players.

It is like adp. It is thought to be a tool. For me, the tool is like a hammer in a baby's hand. No use at all.
We've all grown into the fantasy world with projections everywhere. The more we learn each year means that we will need projections less.
Once upon a time, I could not wait for Shandler to show up in the mail. I learned that I gave him too much credit. That in a NFBC way, he didn't know any more than what I needed to know. Sure, his is a slicker presentation and the Numerish used to back up his ideas are credible. But Shandler writes for everybody. He writes for the auction crowd. He writes for the ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS crowd. In short, he writes for both the Yahoo Kid and a two time National Champ.
The difference being that the inexperienced drafter will try to remember everything said, while the NFBC player will decide what fits for him. For me, I found myself too easily influenced by his reckoning and had my worst years when not following my own logic, but his.

If Jacoby Ellsbury plays the whole year, I think he will be the number one pick in most drafts in 2015. I can't make a projection. I don't want to make a projection. It's stupid for me. Playing time is not guaranteed for any player. Certainly not Ellsbury. Trout has a skill of avoiding walls and other players. Ellsbury does not.
And yes, that is a skill.
At the same time, Trout can get hurt. He hasn't shown it in his first two years, but it could happen to ANY player.
Rendering his projection, meaningless.
In our minds, we give Trout a credit for staying away from injury.
For Ellsbury, a demerit.
This is mostly because of our own minds. We've seen Ellsbury dl'ed. We haven't seen that for Ellsbury.
If we draft Trout and he gets hurt, we go, "WHAAATTT????
If drafting Ellsbury and he gets hurt, we ask ourselves, "Why'd I take him?" "I should have known better"
Even though it is only that small difference in skill that separates them.

You will rarely see better projections for 2014 better than what is given to Mike Trout this year. He reigns king in most players minds. And whether projectionists are afraid to admit it or not, to post better numbers for another player is unthinkable.
He's a player with no demerits.
And while players like Cabrera, Goldscmidt, CarGo, Tulo, Kershaw, Ellsbury, Hanley, or even Puig or Kemp can have a better year than Trout. It'll never be projected. It will be called an 'outlier'. But that is a subject for another post.