Jose Reyes and Lie Detectors

[DOUGHBOYS]

There are many things that go into ADP. Chief among them is how, we as a group, feel how much a player will help our teams the most.
Individually, we can scoff at some players that the group likes.
In turn, this is the Main reason in why a player may go in the fourth round in one draft, but the sixth round in another.
It tickles me silly to hear a guy scream 'value' when he got a pick that beat ADP. It really means so little.
In fact, now that the season has begun, do you see my point that the WHO is drafted is many times more important than the WHERE he was drafted.
But, I digress.

Some reckon that it takes many drafts to make up an adp. In truth it does not.
Let's take Jose Reyes vs Ian Desmond.
For a long time, until Reyes hamstrings became public, these two were like kissing cousins in ADP.
I surmise, however, that Desmond's ADP was 'real'. Reyes was 'fake'.
Here is what I mean.
Of 15 drafters in any draft, I would guess that 12-13 would take Desmond in the third round.
An average drafter would heartily consider Desmond with his third round pick.
Of 15 drafters in any draft, I would guess that only five would take Reyes in the third round.
Reyes drafters are a core of believers. These believers only made up a third of total drafters, but it was enough to keep his ADP with Desmonds until his injury news appeared.

This is how ADP lies.
Those that take Reyes seemed to be more resolute in picking their guy.
They looked for Reyes and in a way set his bar.
Desmond was the shortstop at the second turn that most drafters preferred over Reyes. But, it seemed like he was a pick of convenience more than a target pick.

Reyes over the last five years has not hit more than 12 homers in any season. Only hit over .300 or scored 100 runs once.
He has stolen 40, 39, and 30 bases. More importantly, he is averaging 110 games played over the last five years.
Is that the stuff of a third round choice?
I don't think so.
But, those five drafters in every draft kept taking him there.
In short, ADP lies.
And we are the lie detectors.
The best lie detectors win Championships.