The Billy Ham Risk/Reward

[Likewhat17]

Just wanted to throw my two cents in on the debate here.

With the projected Hamilton line that was discussed (.260/90/0/35/75), he slots in the middle of the second round based on my valuation as well. (Would be 23rd overall).

With the projected line for Stanton that was discussed (.260/80/50/80/0), he'd be a back-end third rounder (40th overall).

I haven't pulled the trigger on Hamilton in any drafts yet this season, but I can certainly understand the reasoning behind doing so. I generally prefer to avoid risk in my foundation rounds and don't like to rely on any one player for such a large % of any categorical output.

I think that regardless of what type of average he hits for though, as long as he swipes 65+ bases, he'll return a profit from the sixth round.

[KJ Duke]

Just wanted to throw my two cents in on the debate here.

With the projected Hamilton line that was discussed (.260/90/0/35/75), he slots in the middle of the second round based on my valuation as well. (Would be 23rd overall).

With the projected line for Stanton that was discussed (.260/80/50/80/0), he'd be a back-end third rounder (40th overall).

I was trying to bait Dan into a taking a guy worth a full round less, he didn't fall for it.

[Gekko]

If Hamilton steals 100 bases, it would tend to reason all of the nfbc overall events will be won by Hamilton owners.

[ALL-IN JD]

Totally disagree. If he is a second round pick no guarantees. If he steals 100 as a 6th rounder and the team doesnt draft more than 1 more sb guy and doesnt try to cover Hamilton with other picks then you might be right.

[Yah Mule]

He also could be the second-coming of Dee Gordon, who I believe two years ago was being drafted around the 6th round only to be dropped by almost all a month into the season.

So his value is somewhere between Round 2 and undraftable.

I stuck with Dee a bit longer than that, even as I saw the bat getting knocked out of his hands.

[Gekko]

Totally disagree. If he is a second round pick no guarantees. If he steals 100 as a 6th rounder and the team doesnt draft more than 1 more sb guy and doesnt try to cover Hamilton with other picks then you might be right.

All it takes is for a couple of teams in the event to load up on middle of the lineup hr hitters complemented with Hamilton and one other sb guy. If Hamilton hits for 100sb, u won't be able to touch this teams offense. The trick is to draft the team as if Hamilton is worth 100sb.

Out of those couple teams doing this, one guy will get it totally right and win the grand prize IMO

[Yah Mule]

Awesome KJ!
I had forgotten that Pierre was taken that high!
Is the three round difference in Pierre/ Billy Ham the risk of not hitting?
I ask this because if he DOES hit, I fully expect him to surpass Pierre sb figures.

The difference is security. Pierre's lifetime BA was .305 going into that draft and he was coming off his third straight season with 162 games played. You could make a pretty strong argument that he was the safest pick on the board at that point.

[uky]

If he doesn't sustain a good OBP as a leadoff hitter, his playing time will drop and for 2014 he'll be the second coming of Herb Washington.

[Deadheadz]

No, it is not.

... those stats would make him a second rounder.

75sb will put him as late 2nd round for me. 90 gets him in first round

+1

self high-five?

Mark likes to stroke his own, er...ego.

[Deadheadz]

Totally disagree. If he is a second round pick no guarantees. If he steals 100 as a 6th rounder and the team doesnt draft more than 1 more sb guy and doesnt try to cover Hamilton with other picks then you might be right.

All it takes is for a couple of teams in the event to load up on middle of the lineup hr hitters complemented with Hamilton and one other sb guy. If Hamilton hits for 100sb, u won't be able to touch this teams offense. The trick is to draft the team as if Hamilton is worth 100sb.

Out of those couple teams doing this, one guy will get it totally right and win the grand prize IMO

Didn't STATS post earlier that they project you'll need 160SB to finish 3rd?
If Hamilton gets 100 and the other guy gets less than 50-60 it seems the SB category will be deficient.

[Gekko]

Totally disagree. If he is a second round pick no guarantees. If he steals 100 as a 6th rounder and the team doesnt draft more than 1 more sb guy and doesnt try to cover Hamilton with other picks then you might be right.

All it takes is for a couple of teams in the event to load up on middle of the lineup hr hitters complemented with Hamilton and one other sb guy. If Hamilton hits for 100sb, u won't be able to touch this teams offense. The trick is to draft the team as if Hamilton is worth 100sb.

Out of those couple teams doing this, one guy will get it totally right and win the grand prize IMO

Didn't STATS post earlier that they project you'll need 160SB to finish 3rd?
If Hamilton gets 100 and the other guy gets less than 50-60 it seems the SB category will be deficient.

The other 12 players will get you some sb, likely a total of 20

1. Draft 12 power hitters with an eye on decent to good batting avg
2. Draft Hamilton
3. Draft speed guy who gets you 30 or more sb. Raj davis will do it and u can wait till late teens to get him
4. Load up on pitchers, as usual
5. Collect check for winning grand prize

[Gekko]

If he doesn't sustain a good OBP as a leadoff hitter, his playing time will drop and for 2014 he'll be the second coming of Herb Washington.

Hamilton will have very very long leash. They didn't sign anyone for him to compete with and they have no realistic alternatives on their roster or minor leagues. 50sb is floor, with 75-85sb likely, while 120sb is upside number

[Glenneration X]

Awesome KJ!
I had forgotten that Pierre was taken that high!
Is the three round difference in Pierre/ Billy Ham the risk of not hitting?
I ask this because if he DOES hit, I fully expect him to surpass Pierre sb figures.

I think the more interesting question and the one that would provide more insight isn't how high a player like Pierre was taken but how many teams that took Pierre that early managed to compete in the overall or even their leagues.

[Hells Satans]

1.) Juan Pierre struck out in about 5-6% of his PA. Hamilton's minor league K% was around 20%. Assuming that holds, in order for Hamilton to hit .300, he would need a BABIP of around .380. While not literally impossible, someone who hits the ball as hard as my mother has very little chance of sniffing it no matter how fast he is.

2.) While valuation systems will value each stolen base by Hamilton between (let's say) 60-100 as equally valuable, that's not accurate at all. When someone is so much better than anyone else in SB, the marginal value of each SB decreases past a certain point.

In other words, it's extremely difficult to draft Hamilton and also draft an excellent team without having too many SB, therefore making Hamilton's SB worth less than they appear to be. Things would have to break perfectly for you to draft Hamilton and his 80/90ish SB, end up with 175ish SB, and not be deficient in other categories, as well as whatever other opportunity costs exist by using a 4th/5th on Hamilton.

[DOUGHBOYS]

1.) Juan Pierre struck out in about 5-6% of his PA. Hamilton's minor league K% was around 20%. Assuming that holds, in order for Hamilton to hit .300, he would need a BABIP of around .380. While not literally impossible, someone who hits the ball as hard as my mother has very little chance of sniffing it no matter how fast he is.

2.) While valuation systems will value each stolen base by Hamilton between (let's say) 60-100 as equally valuable, that's not accurate at all. When someone is so much better than anyone else in SB, the marginal value of each SB decreases past a certain point.

In other words, it's extremely difficult to draft Hamilton and also draft an excellent team without having too many SB, therefore making Hamilton's SB worth less than they appear to be. Things would have to break perfectly for you to draft Hamilton and his 80/90ish SB, end up with 175ish SB, and not be deficient in other categories, as well as whatever other opportunity costs exist by using a 4th/5th on Hamilton.

I love that analysis.
Also forgotten by Hamilton enthusiasts is that in the fifth round, or fourth, or third by the Main Event, he becomes a number one outfielder on most rosters. Aesthetically, it would be the worst number one outfielder taken in drafts. Not just this year, but any year.
Even realistically, having Hamilton as a number one outfielder inspires little hope for the rest of a roster. Drafters look at him as winning a category. The costs of winning that one category, means taking a hit in three, maybe four other categories if a fella like Matt Holliday were passed.
Sometimes, who we did not roster is every bit as important as the players we do roster.

[Gekko]

In other words, it's extremely difficult to draft Hamilton and also draft an excellent team without having too many SB, therefore making Hamilton's SB worth less than they appear to be. Things would have to break perfectly for you to draft Hamilton and his 80/90ish SB, end up with 175ish SB, and not be deficient in other categories, as well as whatever other opportunity costs exist by using a 4th/5th on Hamilton.

not following this. draft hamilton earmaking him for 75sb. the remainder of your team sb should only be another 85 between the other 13 players. total sb for your team is 160. seems petty simple to me. if hamilton hits for 75 (or more), you have a monster offense.

[Gekko]

1. ellsbury - 50sb
2. Segura - 40sb
3. hamilton - 75sb

rest of the offensive hitters for your team can be maximized for hr

[knuckleheads]

The Hamilton Path - I would be interested to hear how others who drafted Hamilton feel about their teams.

In the Primetime, I draft Hamilton in the 4th round and I am currently tied for last in SB. My supporting SB players are BJ Upton and Ian Desmond with sprinklings of speed elsewhere.

The options on my path forward seem limited to: 1) count on Hamilton and Upton (bye-bye batting average), which may or may not work out. Or, 2) forget them both and punt SBs.

Hamilton and Upton are both on a 43-SB pace. Should Upton maintain his pace and Hamilton come close to doubling his, then SBs are in play for about 350-380 points in the overall. At the current pace, my team is looking like a 120-SB team, or worth about 150 points in the overall.

I feel this has proven a risky strategy.

[knuckleheads]

On a slightly brighter note, I love the Reds batting order with Votto batting 2nd. Solves several problems.

1) Votto never swings so he won't be stepping Hamilton's toes when trying to steal.
2) Votto will see some fastballs early in counts with Hamilton on base which will likely lead to his swinging a little more freely.
3) Votto and Hamilton should average out to a .380 OBP, which makes Hamilton's OBP (.320?) more palatable.

[DOUGHBOYS]

On a slightly brighter note, I love the Reds batting order with Votto batting 2nd. Solves several problems.

1) Votto never swings so he won't be stepping Hamilton's toes when trying to steal.
2) Votto will see some fastballs early in counts with Hamilton on base which will likely lead to his swinging a little more freely.
3) Votto and Hamilton should average out to a .380 OBP, which makes Hamilton's OBP (.320?) more palatable.

I've been crowing for the Reds to make Votto a number two hitter for a long time. The times of 'your best hitter hits third in the lineup' are over.
Best hitters are different on every team. Miguel Cabrera IS a number three hitter. He's aggressive and the rbi guy.
Mauer is Minnesota's best hitter and is more suited to hitting second.
Freddy Freeman is a wasted third hitter. In that lineup, he'll come up with less runners on than all other third hitters.
Chris Johnson has changed his approach and would be a great number two hitter in front of Freeman.
Sometimes, Managers cannot see the forest for the trees.

Your point is well taken. Votto fits the 2-hole like a glove.

[Money]

Miguel Cabrera IS a number three hitter. He's aggressive and the rbi guy.

Last week in San Diego The Tigers new manager decided to Hit Cabrera fourth. Leyland tried dong this for an entire season or two. It makes absolutely no sense to me.

In the 8th inning with the Tigers down 2, they get 2 on and no one out. The new tiger skipper decides to bunt Tori Hunter two is hitting ahead of Cabrera. If Cabrera had been hitting third he'd be up. The bunt didn't work out and the Tigers went on to lose.

The new Tigers manager is looking like a big mistake.

[headhunters]

knuckle- #1 and #2 are kinda mutually exclusive. either he swings more or he doesn't. but- he is a good #2 hitter AND he might get 15 sb's on back end of double steal. if they throw through- hamilton just might score.