Of Course, It's Early

[DOUGHBOYS]

It's early. Everybody gets it.
For those that are off to good starts, they'll peek at live scoring and standings.
For those who are not, they'll yell at those who are, and say, "BIG DEAL, IT'S EARLY! WHO CARES!"
A little bit like, "Shut up and deal!", for losing poker players.

Truth is, it is fun to be near the top no matter the time of year.
Will it last?
Most likely not.
But, a fantasy player gets a sense of what it takes to be one of the Overall leaders. It's a glimpse into being lucky on the field, being lucky with injury, and being lucky (or good) with faab and lineup selections.

Being first Overall in April allows for weird thoughts.
What if terrorists shot many MLB teams planes from the air (God forbid) and the season was cancelled.
Is there an NFBC rule that covers this?
Do we simply get refunds or do we 'play it as it lays'?
Without knowing, the Overall Leader is happy to be where he is.

It is April.
And one only has to go back to last year to see a premature dejackulation about 'being right'.
I give you the infamous Mike Trout article....



What has happened to last year's rookie superstar, Los Angeles Angels' outfielder Mike Trout?

Trout hit 30 home runs last year, stole 49 stolen bases and posted a .326 batting average. Through Sunday, he had but two home runs and four stolen bases (a 13-homer, 26-steal pace) and was batting just .263.

What has changed?

On the upside, Trout's contact rate has actually improved slightly from last year, from 75% to 77%. Although that is still less than league average, any improvement in making contact with the ball is encouraging.

He is walking in 10% of his plate appearances, virtually identical to last year's 11% rate.

If his core peripheral skills remain at least unchanged from 2012, why the disappointing results?

Trout's 63-point drop in batting average should not be a total surprise. His batting average on balls in play last year was .383, a level that is unsustainable over time. This year's BABIP is a more reasonable .324.

Last year's "expected" batting average (xBA) – the level calculated from his peripherals alone – was only .280, which also presaged this year's decline. His current xBA is identical at .280.

We can conclude that a batting average around .280 is more likely his natural level.

Last year's leading indicators also pointed to the possibility that Trout's home run production would decline.

His home run-to-fly-ball rate was a high 22% — about twice the league average. This is a level reserved for baseball's perennial power hitters and is rarely maintained over time.

His current rate has regressed to only 9%. I would expect that to normalize at least somewhat over time.

In addition, his percentage of fly balls is down this year over last, from 33% to 28%. All of this points to the resulting decline in home run output.

If there was one statistic that most fantasy leaguers did not expect to regress, it would have been Trout's stolen base output. But one metric perhaps best explains this.

Last year, Trout attempted a steal nearly 30% of the time he reached first base. This year, that rate has dropped to 19%.

Blame his team, if you will. The Angels have struggled out of the gate, having scored the second fewest runs in their division – behind even the Houston Astros. Manager Mike Scioscia may be reluctant to risk losing potential runs on the basepaths and so has not given Trout as consistent a green light.

Trout's 2012 season was too much of an outlier to sustain in any case. Our preseason projections at BaseballHQ.com had him hitting .286 with 21 HR and 30 SB, for a Rotisserie value of $32. He went for far more than that in most auction drafts.

Given his slow start, we've adjusted the projection to 19/29/.281, a value of $27. Still, to reach those numbers, he is going to have to pick up his current pace.

Fortunately for Trout owners, we do expect that will happen.

Ron Shandler is the founder of BaseballHQ.com, a USA TODAY Sports Media Group property

More than owners shouting that 'IT'S EARLY', this article illustrates how early it really is.
And it was published 10 days LATER in the season than where we are now.
It is much to early to use Numerish or anecdotal evidence to prove a player bad or good.
If not believing me, pick a player, any player, and go look at his monthly splits.
The variance for most players is amazing.
It is early. Sure. We're all trying to hit inside the park homers here.
Some of us are two steps out of the batters box. Some one. Some are still completing their follow through from the swing.