Joey Votto Revisited

[DOUGHBOYS]

I enjoy reading Tristan Cockroft's fantasy writing on ESPN. Cockroft depends a little bit too much on Numerish, like most writers, but he is also a common sense guy which brings me back as a reader.
Cockroft keeps a top 250 list of players that he keeps updated through the year. And there is one player that he has over projected constantly. Personally, I believe it is for what this player has done in the past. Not what he is doing now or in the future.
That player is Joey Votto.

If reading some of my stuff, you know that I think Votto, last year and this year, is the single most over rated FANTASY player in our hobby. Votto HAD 30 home run power and 100 rbi capability. For some reason, most fantasy players (and writers) think that is still true.
It isn't.
An injury year of 2012 had Votto at 14 homers and 56 rbi in 111 games.
A full year of 2013 had Votto at 24 homers and 73 rbi in 162 games.
This is who Joey Votto is now.

Votto is whipped.
He has fallen in love with the base on balls like she was a stacked girl leaning over in a revealing sweater.
In 2010, Votto had his biggest year. The year most fantasy players envision when selecting him in the first or second rounds.
Votto's line was .324/106/37/113/16
That is a helluva line.
Something else happened to Votto though. We didn't know it at the time, but Votto was transitioning from being a hitter to a 'walker'..
Before that season, Votto did not walk much. Until this magical season, Votto had walked 59 and 70 times in his previous years. In 2010, his walk total was 91.
Then, we would surmise that this was just pitchers avoiding a real good hitter.
It wasn't. Not completely. Pitchers still throw carefully to Votto, but the walk has become as good as a hit for Votto.
And this is where we take the turn from Votto being a real good baseball player to a so-so fantasy player.

His walks have skyrocketed since 2010.
110 in 2011
94 in that injury year of 2012 of just 111 games.
135 last year.
31 in 37 games this year.
125 players have more at bats than Votto.
Only 56 have more plate appearances.
Joey Votto hits second in the lineup in real life but eighth in fantasy.
Andrelton Simmons has more at bats than Votto.

Votto is a victim of his own desires.
When hitting early in the count, that is, with a 0-0, 0-1, or 1-0 count, Votto's line is:
.421/5 hr/8 rbi
When waiting for his all important walk deeper into counts, Votto's line is:
.192/1 hr/4 rbi
Announcers love saying that Votto is wonderful when taking pitchers deep into counts. They never prove it. They just see it as a form of entertainment and mark of a good hitter when forcing a pitcher to throw several pitches.

Last year, I banged the drum hoping Cincy Management would make Votto a number two hitter. I reckoned that he has become more of an on base guy than rbi guy and that hitting two would be perfect for him.
I was wrong.
Hitting behind Billy Hamilton forces Votto to take more pitches and I've already illustrated the kind of hitter Votto is when going deep into counts.
Truth is, I don't know where Votto should hit. I just know he should hit.

Cockroft has Votto rated 14th of all players.
Votto is not in the top 10 of any roto category this year...I'm not talking of all players...I'm talking only of first basemen!
Votto is the fantasy version of a comfortable out.
He is taken in the first or second round because he looks like a first or second rounder.
Then, that stacked girl with the revealing sweater named base on balls strolls by and Votto owners know they're screwed.
Votto leads all first basemen in walks.
That'll draw accolades from announcers, other players, and Cockroft.
In the mean time, his fantasy owners are screaming, "HIT THE GAWDDAMNED BALL!"

[Captain Hook]

all true Dan ... BUT Votto is a monster in OBP leagues ... maybe Tristan has him on his TOUT team

[Outlaw]

Poor Votto, man does he get maligned, and not just by fantasy players, but at least he's highly paid for it. He's a conundrum for fantasy players and fans. Dough should contact him and give him his theories, because he's probably more astute than anyone in Cincys organization, better yet they should trade him to A's and Billy Beaneball

[Navel Lint]

And yet he does the single most important thing any batter can do, get on base.

Historically we know this to be true. For this season it is no different.
Of the 10 teams with the highest combined OBP, 7 of them are in the top 10 in runs scored, the other 3 are 13th, 14th, and 15th.
Of the 10 teams with the worst combined OBP against them, 8 are in the bottom 10 in ERA, the other 2 are 12th and 15th from the bottom.
More runners equals more runs, the more runs scored the better odds of winning.

How does this apply to Votto?
Well Dan is right, walking to first doesn't help the fantasy player as much as a HR does, but that's not Votto's fault. It's not Votto's fault that the aggregate NFBC owner has put him into the second round. It's not Votto's fault that Cockcroft ranks him 14th. It's also not his fault that he is not in the top 10 in runs scored, that is the fault of his teammates. Although he was top 10 last year and I'd be willing to guess that he will be at or near the top 10 again when this season is over barring injury.

Dan, I hate to say it because I don't want it to sound bad, but it makes me laugh (in a good way ), that you seem mad when Votto does exactly what you say he is.

I know based on things you have previously said that Votto isn't paid to walk and just get on base, he's paid to drive in runs. I guess that is one way to look at it, maybe the REDS don't agree; but either way, what difference is it to us the fantasy player what Votto gets paid. I couldn't care less what the REDS want to pay him.

And I know when you look at his stats his numbers are better earlier in the count (probably true for every player in the league), but I just don't think you can extrapolate that to mean if he just swung more at 1-0 he would hit .320+ with 30+ HR's.
I still believe he does so well early because he ONLY swings at pitches he knows he can hit.
I don't really want to look it up and we covered it last year, but if I remember correctly, his swing percentage goes up when he gets 1 or 2 strikes on him and he can't afford to be patient, at the same time his average does go down.

I know you consider that the point , but I just don't think it works that way.
My feeling is that he produces what he does early in the count because he only swings at good hitter pitches and leaves the rest alone.
This is when the Fantasy J Votto VS. the Real J Votto comes into play. You think it is better for fantasy Votto to swing more and hit a few more HR's, while the real Votto and his real team like him the way his is.


I know we can go round and round about this, which is something I just don't want to do (not that I'm trying to get the last word )

Again, I just think it is sort of funny your angst against Votto for not being something that you know him not to be

[DOUGHBOYS]

I have no anger or even frustration about Votto. If there is any angst at all, it is directed at the fantasy owners who keep Votto's adp so high.
Votto is NOT a 30/100 guy. He could be, but he CHOOSES not to be.
He made that choice after his 2010 season.
Votto's young Elvis days are behind him, yet fantasy players draft him thinking they're going to get the young swivel hips.
Instead, they will get Old Man Elvis. The crooner, a guy equipped with a built-in walker.

If having angst at Votto, it is that he does not adjust his game. He could expand his zone with runners on second and third, he doesn't.
With runners in scoring position this year, Votto is hitting .150. But 12 times he has drawn a walk.
You say that getting on base is the best thing a player can do. Is it really?
I would take even a Sac Fly from Votto with a runner on third and less than two outs over a walk.
More walks since 2010 has made him a lesser hitter in every roto category, save for runs which have remained the same.
In fantasy, a walk is a shrug of the shoulders.
With runners in scoring position, a walk is an irritation. Dreams of a three run homer, broken.
Instead, resigned to first base, semi hoping he scores, and semi hoping he doesn't because the rbi may help a rival.
His plate appearance becoming a passing thought instead of the thought of passing a competitor in a category.

There is no possible way in the world that I can defend Joey Votto as the 14th best player in fantasy.
I told a friend last year that I won't draft him till I can get back numbers that equal the round drafted.
For Votto, I would pass him in the fourth and probably fifth round.
Unless in an obp league or speedy, walks are a detriment.
Fantasy owners in general still treat them as a benefit.

[Edwards Kings]

Just to be sure I got the main point right, Dan, is this the kind of sweater you were talking about?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ummmmm, I forgot what I was saying!!!

[Navel Lint]

I have no anger or even frustration about Votto. If there is any angst at all, it is directed at the fantasy owners who keep Votto's adp so high.
Votto is NOT a 30/100 guy. He could be, but he CHOOSES not to be.
He made that choice after his 2010 season.
Votto's young Elvis days are behind him, yet fantasy players draft him thinking they're going to get the young swivel hips.
Instead, they will get a crooner, a guy who walks first above all else and pleases you.

It has nothing to do with pleasing me. I am not a Reds fan, nor do I have Votto on any of my teams.
Votto's HR totals in his full seasons.
24
25
37
29
24
*on pace* for 26 this year.

You are right, Votto is not a 30HR guy

If having angst at Votto, it is that he does not adjust his game. He could expand his zone with runners on second and third, he doesn't.
With runners in scoring position this year, Votto is hitting .150. But 12 times he has drawn a walk.

Yet in his 34 PA's w/RISP, he has scored 13 times on just 3 hits

You say that getting on base is the best thing a player can do. Is it really?
I would take even a Sac Fly from Votto with a runner on third and less than two outs over a walk.

Statistically, this one is actually close. It really does depend on if there is one out or no outs, but lets just say that my fantasy team would take the SAC Fly, but if my real life team were down by 2 or more runs, I would take the walk

You defend Votto to the hilt. And maybe as a real baseball fan, you should, but as a fantasy owner there is no possible way in the world that I can defend Joey Votto as the 14th best player in fantasy.
I told a friend last year that I won't draft him till I can get back numbers that equal the round drafted.
For Votto, I would pass him in the fourth and probably fifth round.
You're right, he is what he is.
And for me, what he is is a player on somebody else team. Not mine.

You think I'm a Votto defender all day long, and maybe it seems that way. But I am like you, I don't defend the Fantasy Joey Votto. I don't have him on any team of mine.

I do defend the real Joey Votto. In all honesty, I think some of the things you have posted about him are just wrong.
Now maybe they aren't, there is a very good chance that I'm the one that is wrong.
But the way I read your post, you blame the real Votto for not being what others think the fantasy Votto should be.

I also assume that you don't just write these posts so that you can see in print what you are thinking in your head. I assume you would prefer your ideas to be debated or challenged.
I've said this before, but I'll say it again. Over the last 7 years I've probably read 98% of everything you have written
I enjoy what you do and I agree with most of it, but not all. There are a couple of things that I find to be wayyyy off base, most of those things I haven't responded to, but for some reason I have with regard to Votto.
I guess we both have our own issues with Joey

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good response, Russ, and thank you.

I do like to elicit responses on these Boards.
For some, these Boards are all about 'I' or 'Me'. I like good talk and good debate. Nobody is really right or wrong. Although we all feel right in our own minds.

Scoring 12 times while getting three hits and few rbi with risp would not tempt many fantasy players.
I looked for a player who had similar stats to Votto's.
The best I can do is Dustin Ackley
Votto- .262/19/6/12/1....ADP- 18
Ackley- .267/17/4/16/1...ADP- 314

Now, I know I'll get besieged by the "IT'S STILL EARLY" folks. (When does 'not early' arrive?)
But, my point is that Votto is last years Votto. Not the Votto of four years ago. And I know that I would pick Votto over Ackley were there a draft today. It just illustrates that Votto is more capable of Ackley numbers than even Adrian Gonzalez numbers.
Votto has plenty more plate appearances than Ackley. And still more at bats since Ackley gets 'rested' against tough lefties.
But walks have evened them out on a fantasy basis. It was thought over the off season that Votto may change his approach. I believe this may have had drafters thinking more highly of him.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've been mulling over your response, Russ.
I would rather have the sacrifice fly.
Votto is supposedly Cincy's best hitter. In actuality, I really don't think so anymore.
At any rate, he is PERCEIVED as Cincy's best hitter. With Bruce out of the lineup and Phillips now hitting in front of Votto, I'll take the sure run from the Sac Fly over a walk and leaving clutch hitting up to Frazier, Ludwick, or a lesser hitter.
At any rate, it's a darn shame (to me) that Votto has turned himself from an rbi guy to a runs guy.
Rbi guys are harder to find.

[Navel Lint]

I've been mulling over your response, Russ.
I would rather have the sacrifice fly.
Votto is supposedly Cincy's best hitter. In actuality, I really don't think so anymore.
At any rate, he is PERCEIVED as Cincy's best hitter. With Bruce out of the lineup and Phillips now hitting in front of Votto, I'll take the sure run from the Sac Fly over a walk and leaving clutch hitting up to Frazier, Ludwick, or a lesser hitter.
At any rate, it's a darn shame (to me) that Votto has turned himself from an rbi guy to a runs guy.
Rbi guys are harder to find.

I can't disagree with what you say.

As a blanket question, SAC Fly or Walk, it's almost a 50/50 proposition

For me, it really does come down to the particular situation at hand.
What inning is it?
How many outs are there? Zero or one?
What is the score? Leading, down by 1, down by 2 or more?

The resulting combination of answers from those three questions would dictate my answer as to whether I would prefer a walk or a SAC Fly.

Of course I'm talking strictly real baseball.
For Fantasy purpose I would most definitely take the SAC Fly

[DOUGHBOYS]

However I feel about Votto is really of no consequence.
What is intriguing is the different ways in which three parts of the baseball community feel about Votto.

First there are the real fans of Cincy and fans in general. They wish that Votto would swing the bat more, but still love Votto and the things he brings to the table. Votto is an excellent team and clubhouse guy admired by all who surround him. He is the unspoken leader (does that make Brandon Phillips, a SPOKEN leader?) of the Reds.

Then there is the group that gives Votto unwavering support, the sabrmetric community. These folks 100% believe that a walk is as good as a hit. In fact, some believe that a walk is BETTER than a hit in that usually more pitches will have to be thrown by the pitcher. Votto has more bb's than k's. The sabrmetric community loves that stat.
I believe this is why Votto is ranked so high on some fantasy lists. Writers, in particular, have a hard time differentiating between sabrmetrics and fantasy baseball. They assume what is good for the goose, is good for the gander.

That brings us to the fantasy community. They use to have a love affair with Votto. That was until Votto fell in love with the girl in the revealing sweater named walks.
Now, they see missed opportunity. A lack of rbi. They see a player who was formerly a number three Overall pick who has changed his style of hitting completely. That change has not been well received by the some of the fantasy community and instead of a number three Overall pick, he is quickly making himself a third round or even lower pick.

There is not a player in baseball like him. Each community has different feelings about Votto.
Somebody mentioned that Votto would be better suited playing for Oakland. It could happen in a few years when Votto's contract with Cincy comes close to conclusion. I could see Votto possibly leading off for the A's.
Baseball and Votto have changed over the years. Putting Votto in the leadoff spot, utilizing his on base ability over power potential may be a new trend in baseball by then. It would be only right that Votto lead the way.

[KJ Duke]

And now he'll be walking even more, striking out less and driving in no one at all.

[DOUGHBOYS]

And now he'll be walking even more, striking out less and driving in no one at all.

Has all the earmarks of a lost fantasy year for Votto.