The Hogwash is Over

[DOUGHBOYS]

For the pure fantasy player, the hogwash is over. The hogwash being the playoffs and World Series.
Now, teams are on the clock to make decisions about players and soon we will start seeing players going to different teams.
It is hard for us to fathom players changing teams.
When Jon Lester was traded from Boston to Oakland, the overriding sentiment was that Oakland would 'rent' Lester, then he would re-sign with the Red Sox.
I don't think so.
Lester has less ties with the Red Sox than he once had. Theo is in Chicago. Tito is in Cleveland.
And besides Clay Buchholz, he barely knows the other Red Sox starters.
In short, Lester is fair game.

My guess, is that Lester signs with the Cubs.
He has that connection with Theo. The Cubs have a future. The Cubs have big bucks.
The Cubs have built a team through youngsters that make for a bright future. Now, they have to spend money on the pieces that will build their franchise from good young players to a playoff contending team.
Lester has been there and done that.

Now, what team is the opposite of the Chicago Cubs?
The Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers have had their best window to win a Championship. They got their offense right. Their starters were good.
But their bullpen was all wrong. And in post-season, a bullpen is paramount.
Now, they stand a chance of losing Victor Martinez and Max Scherzer.
And possibly worse, Joe Nathan is staying.

Victor Martinez has to go to an American League team.
He can't catch anymore.
He's a horrible first baseman. Think Billy Butler, only older.
If the Yankees want him....and the Yankees love old players...I can see VMart signing there.
The Yankees, besides loving old players, are in love with old players who switch hit.
The wishy washiness comes with who the Tigers keep.
Max Scherzer comes into play here.
Who do the Tigers value more? Who can they most likely sign?
In my mind, Scherzer is gone and the Tigers make a valiant effort at VMart.
And come up short. On both of them.

Scherzer is a gun for hire. He is going to go to the team that offers him the most money.
The team that I think should go for Scherzer is the New York Mets.
They have young pitching blossoming now. They have Matt Harvey coming back from TJ. Wheeler had a good first year. Syndergaard is on the way and Montero may be an up and comer.
Scherzer would give this staff stability and an anchor.
Dillon Gee and other survivors of the old Mets rotation could be traded for offensive pieces.
BUT, that won't happen.
Scherzer will follow the big money. The Red Sox, the Dodgers, and possibly a sneaky Angels bid would be the favorites.

In a way, it's good to have the hogwash over.
Talking about who is going where and how it affects teams and the fantasy side of things is an endless discussion.
At least, till decisions are made.

[whale4evr]

Scherzer is a gun for hire. He is going to go to the team that offers him the most money.
The team that I think should go for Scherzer is the New York Mets.

No chance. Mets won't spend the money it would take to get Scherzer. And they shouldn't. The one thing they do have now is affordable starting pitching. They have a greater need for a couple of bats (Melky?) and a desperate need for a SS. There will likely be a bidding war for Scherzer anyways (Sawx/Yanks?).

[DOUGHBOYS]

Scherzer is a gun for hire. He is going to go to the team that offers him the most money.
The team that I think should go for Scherzer is the New York Mets.

No chance. Mets won't spend the money it would take to get Scherzer. And they shouldn't. The one thing they do have now is affordable starting pitching. They have a greater need for a couple of bats (Melky?) and a desperate need for a SS. There will likely be a bidding war for Scherzer anyways (Sawx/Yanks?).

Trust me. I know it'll never happen.
The Mets are not a bold team.
But I do believe of all the free agents, Scherzer would help him the most.
Melky can't play a full year without getting hurt. He's not worth the money.
As far as Shortstop, Flores is as able as Asdrubal or Lowrie, and a lot cheaper.

Their bullpen is in need of some arms.
If not Scherzer, David Robertson would be there next best bet.

Again though, the Mets think small.
Last year, they signed Young and Granderson.
This year, a Melky signing or somebody else who will not help them in the long run will probably be their choice.
It's too bad, with good moves, they are close to contending.

[BK METS]

Scherzer is a gun for hire. He is going to go to the team that offers him the most money.
The team that I think should go for Scherzer is the New York Mets.

No chance. Mets won't spend the money it would take to get Scherzer. And they shouldn't. The one thing they do have now is affordable starting pitching. They have a greater need for a couple of bats (Melky?) and a desperate need for a SS. There will likely be a bidding war for Scherzer anyways (Sawx/Yanks?).

Trust me. I know it'll never happen.
The Mets are not a bold team.
But I do believe of all the free agents, Scherzer would help him the most.
Melky can't play a full year without getting hurt. He's not worth the money.
As far as Shortstop, Flores is as able as Asdrubal or Lowrie, and a lot cheaper.

Their bullpen is in need of some arms.
If not Scherzer, David Robertson would be there next best bet.

Again though, the Mets think small.
Last year, they signed Young and Granderson.
This year, a Melky signing or somebody else who will not help them in the long run will probably be their choice.
It's too bad, with good moves, they are close to contending.

The Mets would never sign Scherzer nor should they. The young pitching (Harvey/deGrom/Wheeler/Syndergaard) along with the few vet arms they have (Niese, Colon) is more than adequate and I am completely happy with their bullpen with Mejia/Familia/Parnell along with others. They need bats and will probably trade for one and sign one in free agency. Preferably a corner outfielder and a shortstop. As far as the Yankees signing VMart, that will not happen. They already have enough DH eligible players and with Arod coming back and probably playing minimal 3B, it would be a waste of big money for the Yankees. VMart will get a lot of money from a team that needs him but the Yankees won't be the team.

[DOUGHBOYS]

A big waste of money on a switch-hitting veteran?
You're right, the Yankees would NEVER do that!

[DOUGHBOYS]

How many of those young Mets pitchers have displayed that they can be a good pitcher over a long period of time?
None.
The Mets do need a guy like Scherzer.
Right now, they have the hopes of young arms. None have been through the rigors of a full season.
They are more likely to have Tommy John than pitch 200 innings.
Mejia, Familia, and Parnell have also not gone through full years without injury.
It is easy to say the Mets 'are set' with pitching.
They're not.
The Mets cannot afford to be short sighted. The Dodgers demonstrated that a team can never have enough arms.
If a team is screaming for a reliable 200 inning pitcher at the top of a rotation to pull Harvey, DeGromm, Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Montero along for the next few years, it is the Mets.
The Mets should be looking past the coming year. Buying a corner or shortstop now, is merely a rental to appease fans.
Two to three years away is prime for them.
Scherzer would be a building block. Lowrie, Cabrera, or Cabrera (Asdrubal or Melky) are duct tape.
Short sightedness would have them buying a plug-in shortstop or outfielder.
And I know, that is the way they will most likely go.

[BK METS]

How many of those young Mets pitchers have displayed that they can be a good pitcher over a long period of time?
None.
The Mets do need a guy like Scherzer.
Right now, they have the hopes of young arms. None have been through the rigors of a full season.
They are more likely to have Tommy John than pitch 200 innings.
Mejia, Familia, and Parnell have also not gone through full years without injury.
It is easy to say the Mets 'are set' with pitching.
They're not.
The Mets cannot afford to be short sighted. The Dodgers demonstrated that a team can never have enough arms.
If a team is screaming for a reliable 200 inning pitcher at the top of a rotation to pull Harvey, DeGromm, Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Montero along for the next few years, it is the Mets.
The Mets should be looking past the coming year. Buying a corner or shortstop now, is merely a rental to appease fans.
Two to three years away is prime for them.
Scherzer would be a building block. Lowrie, Cabrera, or Cabrera (Asdrubal or Melky) are duct tape.
Short sightedness would have them buying a plug-in shortstop or outfielder.
And I know, that is the way they will most likely go.

Dan, they will NOT give $20 million+ to a pitcher, with the young pitching that they have and I don't see a reason for it. Scherzer is as likely to get injured as anyone and the Mets already have 8 potential starters for 2015. (Harvey/deGrom/Wheeler/Syndergaard/Niese/Gee/Montero/Colon. They will trade two of them for a bat and one is likely to get hurt or go to the bullpen. The Mets can compete in 2015 with a few big bats. Harvey is a top of the rotation starter and deGrom was the rookie of the year and one of the best young pitchers in the game. Scherzer will not be a Met. I can guarantee you that and its the right move.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Of course they won't sign Scherzer.
I know they won't sign Scherzer.
I said they would not sign Scherzer.
Signing a Melky-type outfielder and Lowrie-type shortstop is probably what they will do.
Just what they need...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Last year, the Mets signed Chris Young and Granderson.
$22 million dollars.
Do I think they win more games last year with Scherzer or Granderson/Young?
I think Scherzer.
This year, do they win more games with Granderson/ New Outfielder or Scherzer?
I think Scherzer.
This is where you'll argue that these young Mets pitchers will rule the day and that Scherzer is not needed.
But, He is.
Odds are that one or two youngsters will under perform or get hurt. Maybe more.
At least one of Colon/Gee/Niese will be traded.
While true, Scherzer can get hurt as well, the odds of him under performing are slim.
Especially going to a National League team with a park that even the hometown hitters fear.
With that ball park, pitching has to be emphasized. Even over-emphasized.
Gee's hometown ERA was a half run better at home.
Niese home ERA, 2.76 at home, close to four on the road.
Scherzer could be a quality guy on the road and especially at home.

My point is, and I KNOW they won't sign Scherzer, is that filling holes can turn into a perpetual re-building process.
Mets management and their fans have fallen into the re-building trap. One year, they may even make the playoffs with this method.
But, they'll never be a team to be feared. Certainly not a good team year in and year out.
Just a team plugging holes.
Next year, when fears of David Wright may become realized, it'll be a third baseman that will save Mets fans day.
When not affording Murphy, it'll be a 2B.
Instead of going after quality free agents, they fill holes with an available player, not having to be a quality player.
They plug holes with the likes of Granderson or Chris Young. Then re-plug a hole that the Chris Young void left.
This year, it'll be the likes of Melky and Lowrie or even a player or players of lesser ability.
I would rather have Scherzer in tow and the ability to trade another starter to fill holes, than be forced to pick from a poor crop of free agents.
Deal from strength, not weakness.
They won't get much for Colon and his $11 million dollar contract. He'll be another year older, another year larger.
They will get something for a Niese/Gee package though, and that would be do-able with a Scherzer buy.
They could even trade Syndergaard if receiving a quality package too good to pass.

And, in case I haven't said it before, I KNOW the Mets will not sign Scherzer.
Their fans want an outfielder and shortstop.

[ALL-IN JD]

Dan,

As Alan can attest I am a die-hard Yankee fan and a die-hard Met hater. That being said, when it comes to being a realist I am jealous at the staff the Mets have assembled. That also being said (the Mets being the Mets) they will find some say to screw it up. It's in their DNA! Whether it be Niese, Wheeler or Gee they should be able to get a serious bat if they go that route. They also need to realize that they need a TON of help on offense. Wright almost looks done already (from a power stand point), Duda produced (but will he produce on a regular basis) and D'Arnaud has nice upside (but far from a sure thing). They need two corner bats, a SS, and a 2b (if Murphy leaves). Not sure if the Met ownership will come close to opening up the wallet far enough to accomplish that, in my humble opinion.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan,

As Alan can attest I am a die-hard Yankee fan and a die-hard Met hater. That being said, when it comes to being a realist I am jealous at the staff the Mets have assembled. That also being said (the Mets being the Mets) they will find some say to screw it up. It's in their DNA! Whether it be Niese, Wheeler or Gee they should be able to get a serious bat if they go that route. They also need to realize that they need a TON of help on offense. Wright almost looks done already (from a power stand point), Duda produced (but will he produce on a regular basis) and D'Arnaud has nice upside (but far from a sure thing). They need two corner bats, a SS, and a 2b (if Murphy leaves). Not sure if the Met ownership will come close to opening up the wallet far enough to accomplish that, in my humble opinion.

It may not be in their DNA, but in their planning. They continually plug holes with ball players that are not high quality.
Last year, they needed outfield help. They sign Young and Granderson.
These aren't quality players, but they filled a hole. Now, they want to fill a hole at shortstop and the outfield.
WITHOUT THINKING OF QUALITY!
They play year to year, not for the future.
They have pitching for the future. Right now, it'd be tough for them to screw that up.
The trick is to add more QUALITY.
Whether that is more mound quality as I suggested with Scherzer or using pitching pieces to obtain offensive prowess...or both
The Mets need to quit plugging holes and start building....with real players.

[DOUGHBOYS]

We could even put this Mets thing on a fantasy scale.
We're in the fourth round of a draft and have Kershaw, FHernandez, and Posey rostered.
Logic and roster construction screams for us to add more offense.
The problem being that Scherzer is available in the fourth round. And all the offensive players available are players that we had pegged for the fifth round or beyond.
I lean towards taking the quality in Scherzer and build the staff even farther.
I know that others would put positionality over quality.
It is what makes building teams, whether real or fantasy, a continual conversation piece.

[Bronx Yankees]

Of course they won't sign Scherzer.
I know they won't sign Scherzer.
I said they would not sign Scherzer.
Signing a Melky-type outfielder and Lowrie-type shortstop is probably what they will do.
Just what they need...

Melky-type outfielder? Michael Cuddyer. Check (I guess). Halfway there!

Mike