Why Mike Trout is Picked, More than Our Nose

[DOUGHBOYS]

I ripped Shandler and his Baseball Forecaster good when he wrote his article claiming victory in being right about Mike Trout.
He wrote the piece after Trout had gotten off to a slow start. It was the worst of timing for Shandler.
Trout went on to have a banner year. Shandler caught crap from everybody and he was forced to make fun of himself the next year in the Forecaster.

Now, Trout is the undisputed King of Fantasy baseball. I haven't heard of a draft of any respect where Trout is not the number one pick. As it stands now, Mike Trout is the best player in baseball.
I know most of you were too young to see Mickey Mantle play. You'll have to trust me that Trout is very Mantle-like and this is before Mantle was slowed down by injury.
Mantle and Trout exude power at the plate. But where they are one in the same is on the bases. They run as fast as anybody in their era, but don't look like it. While Dee Gordon or Luis Aparicio look like jitterbugs, Mantle and Trout look like Locomotives.

With all these superlatives said about Trout, is he really the best player in baseball?
And more importantly for us, is he the best fantasy player in baseball?
In 1956, Mickey Mantle had the best average in baseball. He scored the most runs. Had the most home runs. He had more rbi than anybody else. And, finished 14th in stolen bases.
He not only won the American League Triple Crown, he was all of baseball's triple crown winner.
Simply, he was the player we all dream about for our fantasy team.

Can Trout have a year like that?
I don't think so.
The times have changed. Trout is swinging harder. He hits more homers, but his average suffers for it.
Mantle only struck out 99 times in 1956, Trout's strike out rate is nearly doubling that.
Pitchers have changed too. In 1956, most pitchers were taught to 'go after' hitters.
Now, they nibble or pitch around a hitter like Trout.

In this era, from an offensive stand point of view, we fantasy players want power, speed, and average.
That, is our triple crown.
To my reccollection, no man in baseball has won the HR title, stolen base title, and had the best average in one year.
Mike Trout gives us the best chance. That is why he is the number one pick in drafts.
He doesn't need to dominate a year like Mantle did.
He needs to dominate by hitting the same number of homers, while improving his average, and especially, run more.

Last year, Trout only had 20 attempts at a steal.
20.
This, after having a spring training blurb about wanting to steal more bases.
Note to self- Players say stuff in spring training because it sounds good to say it.
Why is Trout only stealing 18 bases when he has the tools to steal 50?
Management and money.
Trout is now a Superstar.
In today's thinking, stolen bases are not for Superstars.
This is not a knock on Trout. He'd like to steal bases.
It is a knock on Management though. Past thoughts in baseball was that a stolen base was a tool used to help a team win.
Now, it is 'wear and tear' for a player.
Superstars do not need wear and tear.
Wear and tear is for the Billy Hamilton's and Dee Gordon's of the baseball world. Players whose major contributions are limited to the basepaths.

Of NFBC's top 10 players in ADP this year, only one player was even in the top 30 in stolen bases last year.
It wasn't Trout. It was Carlos Gomez.
Gomez is a nice player, but not considered a Superstar.
Andrew McCutchen, admittedly hurt some of last year, only attempted 21 steals.
Like us, baseball management prefers Punch over Judy.
In real baseball, a home run could be a game changer.
A stolen base, an afterthought.
In fantasy baseball, a home run effects four cetegories immediately. A stolen base, one.

Mike Trout gives us the chance for domination.
Or at the least, a building block for domination.
In one player, he is putting up close to the the same numbers for homers and steals than those that take Anthony Rendon and Buster Posey as their first and second picks.
While the Rendon/Posey drafters can take delight in their positionality strategy, their numbers are already suffering.
Plus, the Trout drafter has two picks coming, which most of the time include one or even two of the games best pitchers.
On paper, the Trout drafter is way ahead of the game.
And unlike real baseball, our game IS played on paper.

[ToddZ]

Anecdotal, but I buy into the notion that Albert Pujols is distracted when guys run when he's up.

It's well-publicized.

Assuming the Angels stick with Trout in the two-hole, we could see more of the same.

If the Pujols that was hitting .310-40-120 in his sleep wanted no one to run, I can back the manager ceding to his wishes,

But the .280-25-90 version should just STFU.