Magic

[DOUGHBOYS]

We believe in magic.
We do.
I have a friend who will draft in a $150 DC Draft, then move most of the players drafted up on his own lists.
The players haven't changed. But, he figures that if he drafted them, they must be good.
Magic.

Giancarlo Stanton is being taken in the first five picks of every draft. Before last year, he was considered injury prone.
Now that he played for a full year, he's not.
Magic.

Carlos Gonzalez is considered injury prone. The last three years, he has hit one September home run. Just two in August.
When CarGo gets hurt, he doesn't play. He is the kid that skins his knee on the playground and actually sees the nurse.
So as a group, we punish him. Over the last four years, he has fallen from a top of the first round chice, to middle of the first round, to second round, and now, to third or fourth round.
We have become smart enough not to waste a first round pick on him, but dumb enough to waste a fourth round pick on him.
Still, the person who drafts him, will think this is the year.
Magic.
Until he skins his knee.

Almost every time Joe Mauer has been taken in a draft this year, there is the comment, "I can't believe he fell that far!"
Believe it.
And that comment is made by one of the drafters who passed him every round.
As a first baseman, Mauer is mortal. Yadier Molina would be the same. Buster Posey would be a fifth, sixth, or even seventh rounder.
ADP/wise, Mauer is the 21st 1B selected, meaning that over half the teams in baseball have a better fantasy 1B than Mauer. Some, like the White Sox, have two.
Joe Mauer is now James Loney. Loney even being the better bargain.
It's not magic that you are getting Mauer in the 19th round.

17 players had more than 95 rbi last year. All of them, are being taken in the first five rounds of most drafts.
The 18th player in rbi, the fella that had 95 is being taken in the 20th round.
And, he plays 1B like Joe Mauer.
Mauer has seen 95 rbi in his career once.
This hitter, seven of his last nine seasons.
The visual of Ryan Howard getting hurt is still on our minds. We still punish him for getting hurt.
Minnesote embraces the hometown hero with the good hair.
Philly wants to get rid of Howard at almost any cost.
Howard can still hit. He runs as well as a car crushed in a junkyard.
But, he can hit.
And, we have that visual of him getting hurt.

23/95/.233
26/92/.259

Fairly similar statistics.
Same positional players.
Same age (almost exactly)
Magically, the second player is being taken 10 rounds before the first player.
The first player, of course being Howard. The second, Adam LaRoche.
10 rounds of separation.
Magic.

[Navel Lint]

17 players had more than 95 rbi last year. All of them, are being taken in the first five rounds of most drafts.
The 18th player in rbi, the fella that had 95 is being taken in the 20th round.
And, he plays 1B like Joe Mauer.
Mauer has seen 95 rbi in his career once.
This hitter, seven of his last nine seasons.
The visual of Ryan Howard getting hurt is still on our minds. We still punish him for getting hurt.
Minnesote embraces the hometown hero with the good hair.
Philly wants to get rid of Howard at almost any cost.
Howard can still hit. He runs as well as a car crushed in a junkyard.
But, he can hit.
And, we have that visual of him getting hurt.

23/95/.233
26/92/.259

Fairly similar statistics.
Same positional players.
Same age (almost exactly)
Magically, the second player is being taken 10 rounds before the first player.
The first player, of course being Howard. The second, Adam LaRoche.
10 rounds of separation.
Magic.

You make a great point. There isn't 10 rounds of separation between theses two. On the other hand, we are paying for 2015, not 2014.
I'm not willing to suggest that LaRoche will put up 10 rounds better worth of stats this year, but I do think he will be better than Howard.
I also think you have to figure in health. If you use it against Cargo and Stanton, why not against Howard. Since his injury in 2011, hes played just 304 games, LaRoche has played 446. That's a big difference.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Actually Russ, Howard should go UP in adp.
Like Stanton, he proved he can play a year, not being injury prone.
Instead, dropped.

Howard's was one debilitating injury.
7 of 9 years of 95 rbi or more.
The only two years missed, was because of that injury.
Howard, 153 games played last year.
LaRoche, 140.
In fact, LaRoche has only played in 153 games once in his career.

You go back three years, because of that visual of Howard's injury and fitting the argument.
It's the only time Howard has ever missed.
For day to day injury, LaRoche is more of a culprit.
In a way, LaRoche looks prettier to us. More majestic.
Howard, slug-like.

There is not 10 rounds of separation, no matter how it is sliced...

[KJ Duke]

Actually Russ, Howard should go UP in adp.
Like Stanton, he proved he can play a year, not being injury prone.
Instead, dropped.

Howard's was one debilitating injury.
7 of 9 years of 95 rbi or more.
The only two years missed, was because of that injury.
Howard, 153 games played last year.
LaRoche, 140.
In fact, LaRoche has only played in 153 games once in his career.

You go back three years, because of that visual of Howard's injury and fitting the argument.
It's the only time Howard has ever missed.
For day to day injury, LaRoche is more of a culprit.
In a way, LaRoche looks prettier to us. More majestic.
Howard, slug-like.

There is not 10 rounds of separation, no matter how it is sliced...

If he stays in Philly he probably won't be playing every day. Low BA, slugging, platoon hitters can be had all through the late rounds.

[DOUGHBOYS]

LaRoche also should be platooned.
.204 avg vs. lefties. Lousy.
And like said, plenty of these types in the middle rounds.
LaRoche may be being over drafted.
And we have the 10 rounds of separation.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

Dan -- Ryan Howard is finished as a player.

I've got great respect for his career, he's a World Series winner and will go down in Phillies history as one of the best.
But for 2015, and beyond, he just can't play anymore. He never could hit lefties very well, now it's worse. He hits into the shift defense all the time, the one that all teams have learned to play against him. And the 95 RBI's were a mirage. I'll bet you he doesn't hit more than 55 this season.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't agree.
This is part of what makes fantasy baseball what it is.
Two baseball fans can look at the same player and come away with views diametrically opposed to one another.
I want to see you at a Main Event. If not to enter the contest, at least to visit with all of us.
So, I'll tell you what....
I will bet you one bag of party sized Doritos that Ryan Howard will have more rbi than Joey Votto this year.
Straight bet.
You'll have age, better lineup, and adp on your side.
I will have Joey Votto's 'good eye' on mine.
Winner to be paid at next years Main Event in Las Vegas. Deal?
Besides, it's a good excuse to meet you

[Roy's Outlaws]

Dan , I think you might be in some Doritos overstocked if you are going to give away a big bag that easily. I would put it 70 - 30 that Votto get more RBI than Howard this season. We will see soon , Let the games begin already

[DOUGHBOYS]

Roy, since Votto has discovered his terrific eye, he has not had more than 73 rbi in a year.
Votto is still being taken for what he was, not what he is.
I like my odds, even at 50/50.

[Roy's Outlaws]

Dan , I give you the Votto decline, but I will give him a little uptick this season(plays a full season) 85 RBI's , where as Howard could fall off a cliff this season, and end the season with around 70 RBI's. Tough pitching in his whole division(Mets,Nats,Braves,Marlins) Almost half his games in division(72) , plus line-up not going to help him much. Just my 3 cents

[DOUGHBOYS]

Same deal goes for you, Roy!
I'd love to meet you as well!
Win/win for everybody

[Roy's Outlaws]

Dan , I don't need the Doritos to get me to Vegas , It just comes down to a timing issue, late March is hard for me to get away .As I usually am gearing up to go back to work around April 1st , and how a lot of thing to make sure are done(so they don't bite me in the a** in mid summer). But I working on it for maybe next year( I Hope). All depends on the timing of the dates. Don't worry If I'm there you will KNOW IT!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sounds good, Roy

I'll still give you the same bet.
And if we both happen to be in Vegas next year, we'll pay off there.
Still a win/win.
If it doesn't happen, nothing lost.

[Roy's Outlaws]

Dan , I DON"T LIKE TO LOSE , You will get a bag of Smashed Doritos if I lose ! LOL

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dan , I DON"T LIKE TO LOSE , You will get a bag of Smashed Doritos if I lose ! LOL

That's ok, Roy. My daughter fixes a mean Doritos crusted chicken breast.
You'd be saving her work!
All good! LOL

[DOUGHBOYS]

I thought about this bet this morning.
It's a CLASSIC!
The player that Ken and Roy says CAN'T HIT vs the player that I say WON'T HIT.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It may seem as if I am maniacal in offering such a bet. More methodical, than anything else.
Over the last three years, both Votto and Howard are probably not proud of their achievments.
They have both battled injury. They have both under performed.

Still, there is something to glean from both.
Howard is a detriment on the bases. A classic base clogger. He and Jose Molina are still racing in a 100 yard dash that started yesterday. The word 'dash' is insulted. If drafting Howard, your runs scored had better be covered because it is a safe bet that this year, he will knock himself in, as much as teammates do the same.
Howard is also a detriment in batting average. Like most powerful lefties, the shift is hurting him badly. Over the last three years, his average is .233
Both Howard and Votto will not steal much, if at all this year.

During the last three years, Votto and Howard have had similar at bats. Votto, 1175. Howard, 1115.
Of course, Votto has many, many more plate appearances, but has 'wasted' them in an rbi sense.
Over the last three years, Votto has walked 276 times, Howard, 115.
Even though Votto beats the snot out of Howard in batting average and runs, the walking man's weakness is shown in the rbi category.
Votto has averaged just over 50 rbi per year the last three years, 152.
Howard has knocked in 194.
Even discounting all those walks, Votto has had 60 more at bats and done less with them in a productive way.

So, who is a good comp for Joey Votto?
How about these three-year comps....

Votto .306/192/44/152
Mauer .307/203/25/187

Both Votto and Mauer are masquerading as third hitters. Mauer and Votto, in their Managers eyes are their teams best hitter. And Managers like hitting their best hitter third in the lineup.
Neither one should be hitting third. Both should be hitting second. Votto because of being more of a run mover, not a producer. Mauer because he is of little threat for power.

Sorry , I didn't mean to go into all this analysis. Got a little carried away in trying to illustrate the reasons for my bet.
Anyway, there you are.

[DOUGHBOYS]

One more nugget to think about.....
Some hitters have gotten close to one home run per every 10 plate appearances over the years.
One homer every 10 plate appearances represents a power hitter in the best way.
Joey Votto, over the last three years has averaged close to one RBI over 10 PA the last three years.
One RBI every 9.7 plate appearance.
Chris Iannetta averages one rbi every 9.5 plate appearances as a comp.

[headhunters]

not to get too numerishy- but i think howard has the lineup advantage. revere vs hamilton obp. .325 vs .292. .292! and then what will hamilton do while votto is up "waiting for his pitch" well- he will get thrown out trying to steal! 26 times vs reveres 9! and what happens when he does steal second? well votto will just take a walk. if utely can get 450 ab's batting second and both votto and howard get close to the same abs- it won't be close. howard in a cake walk. much better 1 and 2 hitters and he is trying to drive in runs. votto is trying to get his pitch. people tend to accomplish what they are trying to do.

[Navel Lint]

One more nugget to think about.....
Some hitters have gotten close to one home run per every 10 plate appearances over the years.
One homer every 10 plate appearances represents a power hitter in the best way.
Joey Votto, over the last three years has averaged close to one RBI over 10 PA the last three years.
One RBI every 9.7 plate appearance.
Chris Iannetta averages one rbi every 9.5 plate appearances as a comp.

Stats are an interesting thing.
I love looking at players stats, but they don't always tell the entire story.
The above stat is an interesting Votto Comp.
Here is another interesting Votto Comp

Career Totals.....
PA per RBI w/RISP

Mike Schmidt...........2.909
Vida Pinson.............2.886
Reg Jackson............2.872
Frank Robinson.........2.806
Joey Votto..............2.802
Willie McCovey.........2.728
Willie Mays.............2.706

Are both stats fair comparisons, or is the answer somewhere in the middle?

[DOUGHBOYS]

One more nugget to think about.....
Some hitters have gotten close to one home run per every 10 plate appearances over the years.
One homer every 10 plate appearances represents a power hitter in the best way.
Joey Votto, over the last three years has averaged close to one RBI over 10 PA the last three years.
One RBI every 9.7 plate appearance.
Chris Iannetta averages one rbi every 9.5 plate appearances as a comp.

Stats are an interesting thing.
I love looking at players stats, but they don't always tell the entire story.
The above stat is an interesting Votto Comp.
Here is another interesting Votto Comp

Career Totals.....
PA per RBI w/RISP

Mike Schmidt...........2.909
Vida Pinson.............2.886
Reg Jackson............2.872
Frank Robinson.........2.806
Joey Votto..............2.802
Willie McCovey.........2.728
Willie Mays.............2.706

Are both stats fair comparisons, or is the answer somewhere in the middle?

THANK YOU, RUSS!

You've made my point, whether realizing it or not.
Too many drafters are lumping Votto's career work with his obvious change in approach after his big years.
THAT is the reason Votto has fallen slowly from the first round, instead of falling with a thud.
Votto is not the same hitter who accumulated those stats.
Sure, his name is still Joey Votto. And he still plays with the Cincinnati Reds, but he is not the same player.
The same slow progression is happening with Ryan Braun.
Folks have a hard time thinking of Braun as two different players. But, he is.
There is Braun without steroids and Braun with steroids.
Same name. Same team. Different player.

If we look at Braun's career stats. He looks like a first round player.
We like career stats. They tell us a lot.
But, we're not drafting careers. We're drafting now.
Votto has changed. So has Braun.
Career stats become very misleading for a fantasy drafter. It is up to us to avoid thinking we're getting the old player and accept the 'new' player for what he has become.
Thanks again, Russ.

[Navel Lint]

One more nugget to think about.....
Some hitters have gotten close to one home run per every 10 plate appearances over the years.
One homer every 10 plate appearances represents a power hitter in the best way.
Joey Votto, over the last three years has averaged close to one RBI over 10 PA the last three years.
One RBI every 9.7 plate appearance.
Chris Iannetta averages one rbi every 9.5 plate appearances as a comp.

Stats are an interesting thing.
I love looking at players stats, but they don't always tell the entire story.
The above stat is an interesting Votto Comp.
Here is another interesting Votto Comp

Career Totals.....
PA per RBI w/RISP

Mike Schmidt...........2.909
Vida Pinson.............2.886
Reg Jackson............2.872
Frank Robinson.........2.806
Joey Votto..............2.802
Willie McCovey.........2.728
Willie Mays.............2.706

Are both stats fair comparisons, or is the answer somewhere in the middle?

THANK YOU, RUSS!

You've made my point, whether realizing it or not.
Too many drafters are lumping Votto's career work with his obvious change in approach after his big years.
THAT is the reason Votto has fallen slowly from the first round, instead of falling with a thud.
Votto is not the same hitter who accumulated those stats.
Sure, his name is still Joey Votto. And he still plays with the Cincinnati Reds, but he is not the same player.
The same slow progression is happening with Ryan Braun.
Folks have a hard time thinking of Braun as two different players. But, he is.
There is Braun without steroids and Braun with steroids.
Same name. Same team. Different player.

If we look at Braun's career stats. He looks like a first round player.
We like career stats. They tell us a lot.
But, we're not drafting careers. We're drafting now.
Votto has changed. So has Braun.
Career stats become very misleading for a fantasy drafter. It is up to us to avoid thinking we're getting the old player and accept the 'new' player for what he has become.
Thanks again, Russ.

And without realizing it I think you made my point.

You have been on a multi-season crusade to point out the deficiencies of Joey Votto. That's fine, nothing wrong with that. And just like all of us, you want to use all resources at your disposal to bolster your arguement. Again, that's fine; but I think there are times when all of us sometimes can go a little too far.
I thought your Votto/Iannetta comp fell into the "little too far" category because, while accurate, it's lacks some context.
So I did the same thing.
I took one single stat and used it to equally, and ridiculously, compare Votto to some of the greatest players in the history of the game.
Because I know meanings can sometimes be lost with the written word here on the MB, I took the extra step of posing a question and answering it....... and adding a wink .
And what happened, you "Thanked" me for the numbers and actually used them to further boost your argument.

Truth be told. I think you are much more right than wrong on Votto.
I can't remember the last time I drafted Votto, and I currently have him ranked as my 114th (Iannetta 173) highest rated hitter this year. Which based on his current ADP means I won't be getting Votto again this year. Of course I've never won a ME league title, so I wouldn't put to much stock into my rankings
I actually wish you would stop talking about Votto, your greatly respected opinion probably helps to drive Votto down some on the ADP, when based on my rankings I could only be helped if you drove him up.

So I guess the only thing I can say is....

THANK YOU DAN!

[Bronx Yankees]

Just saw this and need a quick mental break.

My two cents: I'd rather have Votto than Howard on my fantasy baseball team, but if you only are looking at RBIs, I'd take Dan's side on this one.

Votto's RBI over the last three seasons:
2012 - 56
2013 - 73
2014 - 23

Yes, he missed significant time in 2012 and 2014, and he also is an injury risk this season. To me, however, the most damning number is the 73 RBI in 2013. He played all 162 games that year and hit in third in the lineup in 161 games. He hit 24 homers, meaning he only knocked-in teammates 49 times all season (he had 726 plate appearances).

If anyone doubts Votto's change in batting approach, here's one more stat. This is his walk percentage with runners in scoring position by season:

2008 - 16.2%
2009 - 15.6%
2010 - 19.8%
2011 - 22.2%
2012 - 30.3%
2013 - 26.4%
2014 - 30.6%

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Russ, you know your baseball. Whether you've won a Main Event title or not means little to me. You know your baseball.
I found out a long time ago that it is better to be honest in making points on these boards. If I were to bolster Votto, then take him in drafts for my own purposes, I wouldn't like myself, let alone expect folks to read what I have to say.

You're right in that I do go overboard on Votto. Some folks go so far as to even say I hate Votto. I don't.
He disappoints me in a fantasy sense. But, I don't hate him.
I've seen his interviews and he is likeable and quite comfortable in the hitter he has become.
And that is good for him. As a fantasy player, it's bad for me. That simple, really.

I don't think I have enough readers to move Votto's ADP.
Votto is 19th on my 1B list. Most drafters would be horrified to see him that low on anybody's list. But, I don't do things the way an average drafter would do things.
Most readers would laugh that I have Votto ranked so low, rather than move their own lists because of what I've written.

There are some things that I'll keep to myself. I know I've shocked a few friends in my thoughts on Dee Gordon and Jake deGrom. But I won't make those feelings public till all major drafts are over.
I feel I can freely talk of Votto because I have been doing that for his last three years.
AND LOOK, HE IS STILL IN THE FIFTH ROUND!

Believe me, I know that drafters do not want 'their' players brought up in March. And this is why the Boards get sort of quiet about players this time of year.
I feel Joey Votto and I have a relationship that exceeds those boundaries.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just saw this and need a quick mental break.

My two cents: I'd rather have Votto than Howard on my fantasy baseball team, but if you only are looking at RBIs, I'd take Dan's side on this one.

Votto's RBI over the last three seasons:
2012 - 56
2013 - 73
2014 - 23

Yes, he missed significant time in 2012 and 2014, and he also is an injury risk this season. To me, however, the most damning number is the 73 RBI in 2013. He played all 162 games that year and hit in third in the lineup in 161 games. He hit 24 homers, meaning he only knocked-in teammates 49 times all season (he had 726 plate appearances).

If anyone doubts Votto's change in batting approach, here's one more stat. This is his walk percentage with runners in scoring position by season:

2008 - 16.2%
2009 - 15.6%
2010 - 19.8%
2011 - 22.2%
2012 - 30.3%
2013 - 26.4%
2014 - 30.6%

Mike

BINGO!