The 'Other' Luck

[DOUGHBOYS]

There has been an age old argument about luck and skill in fantasy sports. Novices to fantasy sports think that luck comes into play so much that it is similar to a girl at the office picking teams because of their colors in a football pool. Veterans know the study involved and know that luck is the residue of their skills.
But there is one element that is not skill. And really, it is not luck either. But, if this element had to set up a residence, it would probably live closer to 'LuckyTown' rather than 'Skillville.'
That element is timing.

We've all felt timing's lash.
Let's tke a look at what timing can do to just one pick....

Paul Timing is the name. He has arrived at the Main Event for the first time.
His goal?
Fantasy Dominance.
Paul is in the fourth round. He is set to pick Nolan Arenado in this fourth round. Paul has convinced himself of a big year and he would fit right in with the McCutchen/Posey/Cueto start. The infielder coveted.
Then he hears, "NOLAN ARENADO". His first thought is to say, "SHUDDUP! Don't say that name out loud, I'm going to take him!"
Then, realization sets in that it was the drafter sitting beside Paul that uttered his name.
The facilitator looks him in the face like he's Al Capone and mutters, "30 seconds".
On the outside, Paul is shuffling papers and looking at his computer screen intently. Inside, only one word can describe his feelings.
Such a versatile word.
The F-Bomb reverberates throughout his soul.
Paul is beyond help.
Otherwise known as full tilt.
He knows better.
Just like he knows better not to run yellow but really red lights when in hurry.
But, we do it.
In the 30 seconds left, he would rather deliver a right jab followed by a crushing left hook to the guy to the left of him.
In his mind, the drafter to the left is laid out on the floor.
BOOM!
Screw him.
Then, Al Capone starts counting down from 10 seconds. And Paul wants to blame Al Capone and his damned watch.
He looks down at his sheet, open to third basemen, see Kyle Seager was the next choice ere thfor that position, and resigning himself to not see Arenado on the team, he tells Al Capone that he'll take f***ing Kyle Seager.

Worse is what follows. Looking at every draft board, the realization hits that Arenado would have been available in EVERY OTHER LEAGUE!
Seager is ok here. But, Arenado is dominance! At least that is the movie that is playing in the marquis of Paul's mind.
And instead of the full night of sex with a beautiful woman that the Arenado pick was, Seager leaves him blue-balled.

Of course, Paul's lack of timing or bad luck is only perceived. Arenado broke his leg on Opening Day. Seager went on to lead Paul's team to an Overall Championship.
In interviews, he'll credit his Kyle Seager pick as being well-planned. An instrumental pick in obtaining fantasy dominanace.
But, when he hits the pillow that night, he'll think of the angst suffered when he couldn't draft his boy, Arenado.
He laughs now. Al Capone, in a way, had assisted him in picking Seager. The public doesn't need to know that!
"I'm the one that had Seager next on my list!", he tells himself. But, 'Self' knows how lucky that pick was.
Now, istead of giving the fellow to his left a couple of punches, he should be thanking him and buying him a couple of drinks.
Screw him!
And screw Al Capone too!
I did it.

Paul can tell himself that he did it. Maybe even believe it. But timing was on his side. If he had been placed in any other draft, Arenado would have been Paul's pick. Not to mention the KDS that got Paul to his seat to begin with. If two seats away from the Arenado pick, not only could he have missed out on his McCutchen/Posey/Cueto start, but he would have had a full minute and more to resolve that Arenado ws indeed gone and maybe turn his page from third basemen and picked Craig Kimbrel, resulting in different picks down the line and no chance at a National Championship.

As is, Paul is the Main Event winner. It was his team and his vision. He is going to take full credit for his Championship. In his mind, he put in the hours of study needed to win a National Championship. He uttered the words 'Kyle Seager', not the guy to his left, not the facilitator, Al Capone.
He did.
Fair and square.

We know better.
We know that those hours of study resulted in a choice of Nolan Arenado.
We know that full tilt actually helped Paul.
We know that good timing embraced Paul.
He was in the right draft at the right time with the right drafters and even with the right facilitator.
They say it takes a lot of skill and a little luck to win in fantasy baseball.
Serve mine with a slice of timing.

[Bronx Yankees]

Dan - As usual, you hit the nail on the head. Luck and timing are definite factors. I have Marcus Stroman on zero of my Draft Championship teams. His unfortunate injury actually benefits me by hurting my competitors. Is that skill on my part? Heck, no. I wanted to draft Stroman time and time again, and constantly missed him. In early drafts, I thought I could grab him late, and usually was a round or two off. Then, as my draft preparation progressed, and I came to like his upside more and more, I started targeting him earlier in drafts. Unfortunately (or so I thought), as he moved up my rankings, he apparently also moved up my competitors' rankings, because I was beaten to him in every DC league in which I participated.

I purposefully stayed away from Darvish and Lee in drafts. I'll take credit for that. I was not a big Wheeler fan and also have him on zero teams. I did not see his injury coming at all, but maybe I'll take a little credit in avoiding a wasted pick because I never was a fan. However, if I'm being truly honest, had I gotten a little more "cooperation" from my competitors, I probably would have had Stroman on all or most of my teams. It is pure luck - and/or poor drafting by me - that I escaped his injury.

Mike

P.S. These types of unexpected injuries also raise the interesting topic of diversification for those of us who play in a lot of Draft Championship leagues. Let's say there are a few guys that you really like, who possibly are being drafted later than when you think is appropriate. Do you grab them for all or most of your teams, even if they require pretty high draft picks, or to what extent do you diversify solely to spread the risk?

[Bronx Yankees]

Updating my earlier post, now I am the one sweating it out as I have Alex Cobb as my SP2 on several teams. Have a feeling that soon I'll be wishing my competitors had beaten me to that punch.

There is no escape from the MLB pre-season injury bug!

Mike

[Roy's Outlaws]

Dan ,great post as always , but a minor error in your thinking-if it the 4th round the guy stealing Arrenado is sitting on his right. Must be perfect .LOL

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ha! You are so right!
I screwed the pooch on that one, Roy.
Good catch.