I've drafted or am drafting in six different drafts. Already, even in December, there is a sameness to a lot of these drafts.
Most drafts will start with the first three players.
Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Paul Goldschmidt
Usually in that order, sometimes not.
I find it a little amusing that since becoming Stars, Trout and Harper talk of stealing more bases, Goldschmidt just does it. Goldy has less speed than both his counterparts, but is a wonderful opportunist.
The four and five spots are mostly Clayton Kershaw and Josh Donaldson. No argument here. Kershaw led the world in strike outs. If there is one category that drives NFBC enthusiasts, it is strike outs.
Donaldson has taken to Toronto like Gekko takes to thumping his chest.
The next few spots are dominated by Donaldson's position, third base.
Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Kris Bryant along with Carlos Correa, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo sprinkled in.
The order of these can go in any direction. But, these are the usual suspects for picks Six through eleven.
Twelve through fifteen is dominated by Andrew McCutchen, Jose Altuve, Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera. There are other players who have infiltrated these spots. AJ Pollock, Jake Arrieta, Dee Gordon, Edwin Encarnacion.
A popular first pick of the second round is Mookie Betts. The feeling being that no matter who Betts is paired up with, that he should cover categories acrossthe board.
Most drafts already have a same feel in them in that most first rounders go as above, then the second round is mostly hitters until getting to the Trout/Harper/Goldy territory. These drafters feel like they have their star hitter and that pitching is a better bargain for them, now that hitters have been picked over.
Sale, Bumgarner, Price, Greinke, Strasburg, Harvey, and Fernandez all become appealing at this turn.
My friend, Joey Votto has also become popular at the turn.
Why, I don't know.
Hope this helps some of those that are new to the NFBC and want to jump in with a draft.
I know that some of you are waiting for the ADP's to be released.
Just remember to use ADP as a thought, not as a guide.
Remember that ADP is built by 14 of 15 drafters who will not win their league.
ADP is also driven by news.
In one league I was in, Steve Cishek was taken in round 45.
He was taken yesterday in the 18th round of a draft.
NEVER draft because ADP told you so.
It's like voting for Trump because he's ahead in the polls. It may be cool to follow the crowd, but the crowd is hardly ever right
I feel strongly about some players.
For instance, I mentioned that Strasburg and Votto were being taken at the two/three turn.
I would not draft either of them at the 2/3 turn, or the 3/4 turn or even the 4/5 turn.
That prohibits me from drafting either of those players.
And, I am fine with that.
I do not want them on my roster and do not feel they will return the numbers, even in those rounds.
The worse thing you can do is look at your roster and say to yourself, "I had no faith in that player, now he's screwing me! Why did I pick him?"
Do your homework. Pick after you've done that homework.
If letting ADP direct you, you are chum for the sharks.
One exercise is to go through a 50 round draft after completed.
Pick out who you think is the best player of each round.
How many times was that player, the first player of that round?
If that draft's ADP was correct, the first player of each round, would be the best player of that round.
Hardly ever happens.
Have fun drafting.
