Daniel Murphy and David Price

[DOUGHBOYS]

Now that we are further removed from the playoffs, do you still believe that Daniel Murphy will make more money because of his hot streak?
That David Price will make less because he was hittable during the playoffs?

Murphy will be 31 years old when next season rolls around. Considered by most to be on the downhill side of his career.
Murphy may be bostered by something he did NOT do during the playoffs.
Versatility.
He can play 1b, 2b, 3b, and probably the OF in a pinch.
I believe that every GM will be looking at his age above all other considerations with Murphy.
It's a tough hurdle.
In fact, in Murphy's case, if I were his agent, he'd already be signed by now. The further we get from the playoffs, the less meaningful that group of stats become.
As time goes by, knowing that Murphy has never hit more than 14 homers in a season becomes more important than playoff homers.
I believe that Murphy will get a three year contract, maybe four.
And I don't think the yearly amount will equal the 15.8 million turned down for next year with the Mets.

Who would sign Murphy?
The Dodgers would be my first guess. Their infield after Gonzalez and Seager is a question mark.
Murphy could go Zobrist there.
Fantasy speaking, the best place he can sign is with the Yankees. A short porch in right field and an infield that is jumbled with an oft injured first baseman would make Murphy a plus player.

For all the hub bub about the greatness of Murphy during the playoffs, nobody ever thinks the opposite.
Teams do not think less of David Price because he was relegated to a bullpen arm during the playoffs.
As with Murphy, the playoffs are shelved, and the stats Price has put up over the duration is what is digested.
For me, I do take those playoffs just a little to heart.
Price is going to get a big, big contract. A long, big, big contract.
It wouldn't be me bidding on him if I were a GM.
Too many things scare me about Price to give him a deal beyond five years. And he will get a deal beyond five years.

Who signs Price?
I believe it'll be the Red Sox or Yankees.
Price is A.L. East proven. That above a lot of other items, is going to appeal to these two teams.
The Red Sox have the inside track. They need him more and the Yankees have dialed down the long term contracts.

Where is the best place for Price in fantasy circles?
San Diego is done going after large tickets I believe.
San Francisco and the Dodgers would be optimal places for him.
The Cubs having an Arrieta/Price/Lester trio would be fun.
A darkhorse would be Seattle. Price could rack up a lot of strike outs vs. the Astros and Rangers, while enjoying the large parks of Oakland, Anaheim, and especially the home park in Seattle.

[Bronx Yankees]

For all the hub bub about the greatness of Murphy during the playoffs, nobody ever thinks the opposite.
Teams do not think less of David Price because he was relegated to a bullpen arm during the playoffs.

I agree that Price's value won't be impacted much (probably at all) by his last couple of starts in the play-offs. He may get 8 years/$200 million or something relatively close to that. I also have some concerns about how he will "age" in the second-half of a long-term deal.

Just curious: when you say that "nobody ever thinks the opposite," do you mean to include Johnny Cueto in that statement? I think he is a really interesting case, perhaps the most interesting free agent (to me at least). For years, when healthy, he has been a true ace, even pitching in a hitter's ballpark. Then, he gets traded to the Royals, where he got to pitch in a pitcher's park behind the best defense in baseball, and he struggled mightily. His "slump" predated the play-offs, so perhaps this is not a fair comparison to Price, but I think Cueto cost himself some big bucks (although he did have a few strong starts mixed in with a bunch of middling and crappy ones). Do teams still view him as an ace, like he was for years, or not, because of how he pitched the last few months? Had he finished strong, equaling or bettering his performance in Cincinnati over the last few years, would the pundits be discussing Greinke, Price and Cueto as the huge free agent aces, instead of just Greinke and Price, with Cueto thrown in with Jordan Zimmermann in the consolation prize category? Just curious of your take on him when you get a chance (as we wait for the draft room to open ).

Mike

[Navel Lint]

Final offer........
Murphy.. 3yr/$41M
Price.... 6yr/$163M

[DOUGHBOYS]

Cueto gains points by his numbers.
He loses points by his delivery.
Cueto's numbers are favorable along other aces. In some cases, he surpasses some really large names.
I just get the feeling that Cueto has had his best year (2014) and that 2015 will be hard to match.
It's good timing for his free agent year. Some team is going to gamble that 2015 can be repeatable.
I don't see it.
As Cueto's stuff disappeared as the season progressed, he turned to more trickery in his delivery.
More of a turn towards center field, a larger than normal pause, or a quick pitch.
The more Cueto does that, the less he believes in his stuff.
We saw a lot of it at the end of the year.
And yes, that may have cost him big time.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Fantasy-wise....

I wouldn't be comfortable with Cueto. He went in the top of the seventh round in both early drafts. I'm guessing he'll stay around that same area, then move slightly upwards or downwards, depending on which team signs him.
I don't believe he'll ever be the strike out pitcher that he was in 2014.
I don't even think he'll be the strike out pitcher from 2015.
Which makes him more of a non-ace.
Really, I don't like him in the first 10 rounds, which means I won't be rostering him this year.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Fantsy-wise, what happens to Yasiel Puig?

By now, we know his head is a liability. (No matter what Jim says).
Puig likes putting flare on an easy catch and likes watching his hits while still in the batters box.
He hustles on balls that do not require hustle and won't hustle on balls that do require it.
And underneath that head is a baseball body.
An arm that can make me remember Clemente.
Speed engine train fast.
Locomotive power.
He is like a retarded panther in the wild.
I've never seen a retarded panther in the wild.
But, I would both fear and admire it.
Same as Puig.

So, what do we do with such a fantasy animal?
He went in the fourth round of one early draft. The sixth round in the other.
This says a lot about Puig.
We see the talent.
And fear the head.
I won't consider him in the first six rounds.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Here is a very intriguing column on Puig....
Love the Greinke story....


Jeff Passan By Jeff Passan
June 30, 2015 5:22 PM
Yahoo Sports

Inside the Los Angeles Dodgers' clubhouse, the contempt some teammates hold for outfielder Yasiel Puig is no longer a secret limited to whispers. They discuss it openly, resigned to the fact that the Dodgers don't plan to trade their mega-talented right fielder no matter how deep the animus runs.
"We've talked about this," one Dodgers player told Yahoo Sports. "At this point, it would be addition by subtraction."
Stories of Puig's ability to infuriate teammates have percolated through baseball since he shot to fame as a rookie in 2013 and cemented himself last season as one of baseball's greatest talents. Now, in "The Best Team Money Can Buy," a fascinating new book that explores the inner workings of the Dodgers' clubhouse, author Molly Knight delivers anecdote after Puig anecdote that illuminates what makes him so off-putting to so many.

The idea of trading Puig – a notion the Dodgers have never seriously entertained, according to sources – comes down to a simple question: Would Los Angeles really be better without him? And even if some players believe that might be the case, none of the past incidents have convinced the Dodgers that Puig's harm today goes beyond occasional annoyance.

While some issues, like his habitual tardiness for games, have abated this year, according to sources, Puig's work ethic in batting practice and the weight room continue to bother some teammates. Much of the hostility stems from a general sense of entitlement shown by the 24-year-old. During spring training this year, as Knight writes and multiple sources confirmed to Yahoo Sports, Puig argued with teammates over who should be allowed on a plane ride that typically includes wives and girlfriends. The subject of someone from Puig's entourage joining the traveling crew came up, and sources told Yahoo Sports that Puig argued with pitcher Zack Greinke and nearly came to blows with infielder Justin Turner over the matter.


Greinke, the National League ERA leader and one of the game's best pitchers, was at the center of another memorable Puig moment related in Knight's book. In 2014, during the Dodgers' annual trip to Chicago, the team bus stopped downtown to allow rookies undergoing hazing to walk into a pizza place and emerge with food for the veterans. Some Dodgers players, not wanting to wait, skipped off the bus. When the bus was ready to leave, Puig was outside, looking for his luggage inside of the bay underneath the bus. After Puig ignored multiple requests to close the luggage bay, Greinke hopped off the bus, grabbed the suitcase in front of Puig and chucked it onto Michigan Avenue. Puig stepped toward Greinke and was restrained by reliever J.P. Howell.
Word of the incident spread quickly, those there giddily recounting it to those who got off the bus, and highlighted the chasm between Puig and his teammates.

Puig's reputation preceded his time with the Dodgers. During spring training 2013, Mitch Poole, the Dodgers' longtime clubhouse manager, assigned Puig's jersey number on a lark. "I thought it'd be funny to give him number 66 to reference 666, like he was Diablo," Poole told Knight. During the spring, Puig cottoned to the number and asked to keep it because he thought it was good luck.

Upon his debut, Puig already made teammates wary by engaging in a relationship with a minor league coach's daughter. His inability to show up on time was another constant problem. Puig was chided by veteran Skip Schumaker during his rookie season for coming to the stadium 20 minutes after he was expected to arrive. Manager Don Mattingly benched Puig opening day when he was nearly an hour late.

How Puig's on-field impact (he's hitting .289/.382/.465 this season) meshes with the off-the-field issues will remain a constant question for the Dodgers until the latter vanishes or the former wanes. The Dodgers have gone out of their way to help Puig, according to Knight's book, assigning a private security firm to watch over him because of threats from the drug cartel that smuggled him to Mexico from Cuba. The organization is constantly trying to balance assuaging Puig while not showing him preferential treatment, aware his value to the team goes beyond his statistics. As Knight wrote: "Whatever Puig's issues were, he was one of the best players in the game, he sold tickets, and he was relatively cheap."

The players recognize as much. When the player who posed the addition-by-subtraction question reconsidered his thought, he told Yahoo Sports: "That's the biggest Catch-22. He's a top three or four talent in baseball."

And that hasn't changed. As much as Puig might slack in preparation, he continues to play the game at an unmatched level, his dynamism unfettered. Sometimes it's great, and sometimes it's laughable, and always it's exciting, and in a baseball culture that appreciates the steadiness necessary to survive its long season, Puig's ebbs and flows can be off-putting.

This is Puig's third season. His first two ended with the Dodgers playing in the postseason, and another October looks nigh. Among their monstrous payroll, frontline farm system, deep scouting group and unmatched analytical power, they are the sort of team that could reel off multiple championships in the next five years. Puig is signed through 2018, and as he enters his prime, teammates wonder whether he'll change.
"You guys tell me how you want me to play," Puig said during a meeting last year, according to Knight's book, and a few teammates spoke up, including then-Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who said: "I just don't want your career to go the way my career went. All my teammates hated me because of the way I played."

The distaste for Puig is palpable, some of it fresh, some still festering from the past. It's real, though, and the Dodgers know at the very least they need to monitor it so it doesn't devolve into the scenario where they might actually be better without someone so good.

[Bronx Yankees]

I'd be more willing to take a chance drafting Cueto than Puig. Puig scares me. I don't trust him to get 500+ plate appearances, and his performance can be shaky. While seeing him make an unbelievable throw is exciting, it doesn't impact his fantasy value. For my OF1 or OF2, I want a lot of counting stats, and that makes him a risky proposition in my book.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'd be more willing to take a chance drafting Cueto than Puig. Puig scares me. I don't trust him to get 500+ plate appearances, and his performance can be shaky. While seeing him make an unbelievable throw is exciting, it doesn't impact his fantasy value. For my OF1 or OF2, I want a lot of counting stats, and that makes him a risky proposition in my book.

Mike

Agreed.
When one of my players drafted does something stupid, it makes me feel stupid.
If drafting him, I have the fear of feeling stupid every day.

[Bronx Yankees]

It's an interest question in terms of strategy. As I think about it, I confess that I generally considered Bryce Harper to be a more-talented but equally-risky player as Puig going into last season. Harper was hurt often, very streaky, and going into 2015 had yet to live up to his draft slot.

Compare the two players in 2014:
Harper 13 HR, 41 R, 32 RBI, 2 SB, .273
Puig 16 HR, 92 R, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .296

Edge to Puig. Both of them were young, immensely talented, acted like they were entitled, did stupid things, and had various medical issues (although Harper more so than Puig in 2014). Both were going for very high picks, with their advocates counting on major growth. Since March 1st, Puig's ADP was 21.54, and Harper's ADP was 28.79. Thus, it is fair to say that they were viewed comparably.

Compare the two players in 2015:
Harper 42 HR, 118 R, 99 RBI, 6 SB, .330
Puig 11 HR, 30 R, 38 RBI, 3 SB, .255

One huge success and one huge failure. I think to some extent it is a question of risk tolerance. Some folks picked Harper or Puig betting on a banner year of continued development. Harper's owners were ecstatic with what they got, while I'm guessing a high majority of Puig's owners failed to win their leagues.

Some folks like the high risk/high reward players. After all, to beat out 11 or 14 competitors, you often need to take chances. For myself, I'll take a chance on a few high risk/high reward players, but rarely in the first few rounds. I tend to risk averse in early rounds. Not saying that my approach is right or wrong; I just think personality (or disposition, or risk tolerance) impacts drafting strategies.

Who's to say Puig can't put things together in 2016? Harper did it - and then some - in 2015. I only can say that based on where Puig is likely to be drafted, I don't see him on my teams this season.

Mike

[ChipChopChip]

I think Puig's playing time will increase with Mattingly out of the picture. The big question is can he stay healthy

[BK METS]

As for Murphy, He will get 4 years and 50-55 million. Not as much as the QO on a yearly basis, but more security and more guaranteed money.

I believe, if he didnt have the playoff run, he would have accepted 3 years or even the QO. His playoff run was epic. A record breaking playoff run is much more newsworthy than a bad playoff run. Someone will bring out the checkbook, that wouldnt have previously, specifically the Dodgers, whom he unleashed upon.

[DOUGHBOYS]

So, Murphy signed (what I call) an agents contract.
Agents care more about the length of a contract more than the dollars.
Agents like knowing they will be paid over the next three years. They don't like short contracts, fearing injury.
If Murphy were to decide whether he would like a one year, $15.5 million dollar contract with a team just in the World Series or three years at $12.5 million with a rival team, I am confident HE would have chosen the one year approach.

His agent was also less than brilliant by not inking Murphy while the playoffs were fresh in teams minds.
If he were my client, he would have been the first player signed and he sure as hell would have gotten more than 12.5 per.
In a season where free agents have kicked ass, Murphy comes up a cropper.
If in three years, the Nationals are in the World Series, being carried by a home run hitting Murphy, the first thing Murphy should do, is fire his agent.

[mbendar16]

I agree with you Dan. I'm not sure why Murphy didn't accept the qualifying offer, but it's now to the Mets advantage in getting a solid replacement in Walker with a upgrade in defense and a draft pick.

Murphy essentially signed a 2 yr/$21.7 million deal after subtracting that qualifying offer. With the free agent frenzy that rarely works against the player, how bad would Murphy have to be to get less than this after 2016?

There is no question that Murphy's historical poor defense offset his magical postseason hitting display. Still, I am surprised more of the qualifying offers weren't accepted from guys like Murphy, Desmond and Kendrick, who have not and most likely will not exceed the average that qualifying offer salary. As you noted, long-term security vs. a 1 year deal.