The Billy Hamilton Conumdrum

[DOUGHBOYS]

When Billy Hamilton was assured of playing in the Major Leagues, some fantasy players went crazy.
He was going to steal 100 bases and score 120 runs.
Taken in the second round. Sometimes, the first.
The Numerish projected him to be a third round choice at worst.
Can't blame 'em.
Hamilton was something never seen before. A guy who could turn a game around with his speed. Some times though, we become so enamored with a skill that we disregard lack of skills.
Some thought that Hamilton would 'learn' to take a walk.
Afterall, he had 86 walks one year in the minors.
'Once you have a skill', right?
He stole 155 bases that year. That number alone, plus a few piddling others from fantasy teammates, would give us 15 points in stolen bases in a league.

BUT, we disregarded his ability to reach first base. On base percentage in the minors does not always indicate what'll happen in the majors.
Pitchers throw more strikes.
Pitchers are harder to hit.
Pitchers do not walk judys.

Even stealing 56 and 57 bases his first two Big League seasons, Hamilton failed expectations.
He scored only 72 and 56 runs.
That was on a team with Phillips, Votto, Frazier, and Bruce.
This year, that may be cut down to only Votto.
Hamilton could become a one-category player. A minus in batting average, Home runs, and rbi. Not a minus or a plus in runs scored, and a plus in stolen bases.
Do the stolen bases off set the minus's in three categories?
That'll be up to each drafter.

Hamilton's hitting was consistent last year.
He never had a month hitting below .217, never had one higher than .238
The Reds, tiring of his on base percentage, or lack therof, demoted him from the leadoff spot.
He didn't hit any better.
And predictably, it affected his run scoring to where he could become even a detriment in that category.

They say that Hamilton cannot be compared with another player.
There simply is no other player who steals the bases like Hamilton does, while hitting so poorly.
Very, very loosely, I can compare him with Chris Carter.
Carter has one skill. Hitting home runs.
Like Hamilton, he is hitting lower and lower in the lineup. No matter the one skill.
And with a .199/50/24/64/1 line, Carter is also a detriment in three categories.
The difference being that Carter has other players in baseball who are similar in power skill sets.
Hamilton has no rival.
That is the reason that Hamilton still gets taken in single digit rounds, while Carter is an afterthought.

Drafters of Hamilton have different designs now.
Before, he was thought of as a game changer for a fantasy team.
Now, like Ben Revere or even Jarrod Dyson much later, he is a hedge.
A player taken when feeling the need for speed.
We know that Hamilton will hurt us in three categories.
We know it. And some of us quickly dismiss it.
In hopes are that our other players will make up for his shortcomings.

Hamilton plays on a little field. Less room for hits of his kind.
As said, there'll be fewer teammates capable of knocking him in.
He plays a reckless center field.
Those things, like two years and one year ago fade from our mental banks when calling his name at a draft.
Sometimes, we only want to remember how he can steal a base.
And that, that is something he does very well.

[Bronx Yankees]

It's an interesting topic, Dan. In a way, a continuation of our Revere v. Ellsbury discussion last night on the main forum.

I agree with everything you said about Billy Hamilton. The question, however, is what does it mean, and how do you value strong performance in a single category? Also, are all categories created equal?

Let's take a look at Billy Hamilton's stats last year:

BA .226
HR 4
R 56
RBI 28
SB 57

I'm sure everyone found his season to be highly disappointing, including those who drafted him (of which I was not one). Going into the season, many folks expected 75-100 SBs. Putting aside 57 SBs - which are nothing to sneeze at - the BA and Runs were especially disappointing (I'm not sure what folks expected in terms of HR and RBI - probably more than 28 RBI).

And yet, yet, Billy Hamilton somehow finished 2015 as the 32nd ranked player on the NFBC player rater and the 13th best OF. I find that incredible. True, one can question the accuracy or validity of player raters, but, clearly, Hamilton was judged to be one of the more valuable fantasy assets last year. (In a "perfect" draft, the 32nd ranked player would be taken early in the 3rd round.) I strongly suspect that the player rater over-values SBs. That being noted, a player that can put up a higher number of SBs has more value now than ever before.

I did ten minutes of research on Fangraphs. I find this stuff interesting. In 2015, there were seven players that stole 30 or more bases: Gordon 58, B. Hamilton 57, Blackmon 43, Pollock 39, Altuve 38, Revere 31, and Marte 30. Go back just a few years, to 2012, and there were 23 players - more than triple - that had at least 30 SBs: Trout 49, R. Davis 46, E. Cabrera 44, Bourn 42, Reyes 40, Victorino 39,Crisp 39, C. Gomez 37, Pierre 37, A. Escobar 35, Altuve 33, Gordon 32, Kipnis 31, Jennings 31, M. Upton 31, Braun 30, Rollins 30, Aoki 30, Dyson 30, Stubbs 30, Campana 30, and Bonifacio 30.

Thus, one could argue - convincingly, I think - that an elite SB guy today is more valuable than an elite SB guy from just four years ago. Stolen bases are down across baseball. A guy like Hamilton could be worth many roto points in the SB category. Of course, depending on where you draft him, you also should factor in the opportunity cost of taking Hamilton and foregoing the higher BA and more HR, R and RBI that you would get from taking a different batter at that same spot.

I guess what I'm saying is that not only is Billy Hamilton a conundrum, so is the entire SB category. I think most roto players probably would prefer to take a bunch of guys like Altuve, Marte, Pollock, Betts, etc., that can steal 25+ bases and provide real help in other categories. Unfortunately, there are not all that many five-category guys around, especially as you get beyond the early rounds. Thus, players have a choice of grabbing a lot of guys - primarily OF and MI - that "can" steal 10 of so bases and hope they collectively get you what you want, or you can target guys like Gordon, Altuve, Hamilton, Revere, Billy Burns?, and try to get an advantage in SBs (either to try to win the category or allow you to ignore the category with many of your other picks). As SBs decline, whether and how you target that category in drafts becomes more challenging.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Right, Mike?
And like said, there is no other Billy Hamilton.
With his poor hitting and style of play in center field, even his stolen bases are in jeopardy.
He could be sent down mid-season to improve his batting skills.
He could be hurt a lot like he was last year.

I have found him to be both a tough take and a tough pass in certin rounds this year.
However, I have not considered him before the seventh round this year.
As a sixth rounder where he has been drafted a lot this year, I find too many players that'll actually HELP me in three/four categories.
I take part of that back, in that I did select him at 6/14 in one draft.

This is a subject for another day, but not only are stolen bases shrinking, batting average is too.
Pitching dominating hitting, specialists, and shifts have all conspired to drive batting averages down.
In that way, Hamilton is only following the trend of hitting in the Majors.
Like Hamilton, Joc Pederson led off a lot of the year. He hit .210
His walk-taking drove sabrs to say he 'belonged' in the leadoff spot, when clearly, he did not.
A .228 batting average from Hamilton is more tolerated than in previous years.
We'll play Ian Desmond for his 19 homers and 13 stolen bases...and live with his .233 batting average.

Maybe Ian Desmond is the comp for Hamilton in a way.
Both, struggled last year.
Both, taken in the third round last year.
Both, dropping the same rounds because of poor performance.
So, if Hamilton does steal 100 bases and brings his other categories up a bit, it could be suggested that it would equal a player at a premier position who hits 25 homers and steals 20 bases as Desmond would do in a good year.
Which would a drafter rather have?
It would depend, solely, on the players already drafted.
Or, the significance of focusing on just four categories for the remainder of the draft.

[Navel Lint]

Thus, one could argue - convincingly, I think - that an elite SB guy today is more valuable than an elite SB guy from just four years ago. Stolen bases are down across baseball. A guy like Hamilton could be worth many roto points in the SB category. Of course, depending on where you draft him, you also should factor in the opportunity cost of taking Hamilton and foregoing the higher BA and more HR, R and RBI that you would get from taking a different batter at that same spot.

Mike

This IS the conundrum.

Just for comparison of Counting Stats only (not BA).

The MLB totals for 2015
R/HR/RBI/SB
20,647/4909/19,651/2505

Here are 3 players with their raw totals, and the percentage amount of each counting category that they accumulated of the league total.

Chris Davis (HR leader)
100/47/117/2
.0048/.0096/.0060/.0008=.0212

Billy Hamilton
56/4/28/57
.0027/.0008/.0014/.0228=.0277

Chris Carter (the sort-of B Hamilton-type)
50/24/64/1
.0024/.0049/.0033/.0004=.0110

Now, this doesn't factor in BA.
But it's not hard to see why NFBC owners would take Hamilton "early".
The biggest issue in taking Hamilton is what to do with your 29 other picks

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good point, Russ.
I've drafted Billy Hamilton once this year. It's a non-NFBC draft in which pitching was taken slowly.
Still, with an NFBC format of 15 teams.
I had the second pick and chose Bryce Harper.
On the next turn, no pitchers aside from Kershaw had been selected. I took Scherzer, then Bumgarner.

I was sure that pitching would fly off the draft board after my selections.
They did not.
On the four/five turn, I selected Keuchel and Upton.
I felt naked.
Three starting pitchers in the first five rounds, left me wanting hitting.
Hitting that was being swallowed up by other drafters.
I took Hamilton at 6/14.

Hamilton became a quick fix for one category.
My edge in pitching, seemingly secure, I needed to start relevancy in hitting categories.
No matter how good Harper's numbers can be, no one player has won a league.
Hitting will still be an uphill battle.
I have no positions taken after the seventh round but pitchers and outfielders.
And I still ask myself, did I take Hamilton for peace of mind in a category?
Or did I take him thinking that every point in a hitting category need be obtained.
Hamilton will certainly need the right players around him.

[ChipChopChip]

I probably won't own Hamilton in any leagues this year. With that being said I will be looking at my Draft Champion leagues in August and think "If I could only have 10-15 extra stolen bases in this league I could probably win the league".

I like drafting speed about as much as I like drafting closers.

[ToddZ]

My biggest concern with Hamilton is Jose Peraza - they profile similarly and assuming the Reds deal Phillips, both will (likely) be playing. I can't see them hitting 1-2 so that means one goes to the bottom of the order. I don't want that guy. I can figure out how to make the other work. Especially Peraza if he comes at a discount.

[Bronx Yankees]

Thus, one could argue - convincingly, I think - that an elite SB guy today is more valuable than an elite SB guy from just four years ago. Stolen bases are down across baseball. A guy like Hamilton could be worth many roto points in the SB category. Of course, depending on where you draft him, you also should factor in the opportunity cost of taking Hamilton and foregoing the higher BA and more HR, R and RBI that you would get from taking a different batter at that same spot.

Mike

This IS the conundrum.

Just for comparison of Counting Stats only (not BA).

The MLB totals for 2015
R/HR/RBI/SB
20,647/4909/19,651/2505

Here are 3 players with their raw totals, and the percentage amount of each counting category that they accumulated of the league total.

Chris Davis (HR leader)
100/47/117/2
.0048/.0096/.0060/.0008=.0212

Billy Hamilton
56/4/28/57
.0027/.0008/.0014/.0228=.0277

Chris Carter (the sort-of B Hamilton-type)
50/24/64/1
.0024/.0049/.0033/.0004=.0110

Now, this doesn't factor in BA.
But it's not hard to see why NFBC owners would take Hamilton "early".
The biggest issue in taking Hamilton is what to do with your 29 other picks

That's an interesting way of analyzing things. Just focusing on HR and SB, it looks like 49 HR is roughly equal to 25 SB (putting aside that each HR also produces a R and at least one RBI). It's tough to think of Billy Hamilton's very disappointing 2015 season as somehow being "better" than Chris Davis' pretty positive 2015 season, but I guess it just shows how valuable SBs have become now that they are becoming increasingly scarce.

Interestingly, I've never been particularly tempted by Hamilton, although I've snatched Revere up in two of my first three drafts. Of course, that could just mean I'm an idiot. I think I tend to shy away from one-category wonders, but somehow am more easily satisfied with Revere's lower SB capability because he is a plus BA guy and at least is average in terms of scoring Runs.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

True Todd.
I had this conversation with a friend last week.
He expects Peraza to bat ninth and Hamilton to lead off.
Both would have a lot of freedom to run in playing for a non-contender and a fellow hitting third who takes a lot of pitches.

But, what if Peraza out hits Hamilton in April and the first part of May?
Odds are, they would switch positions in the lineup.
Peraza has more ability to hit for average than Hamilton.
For Peraza owners, hitting first in the lineup would be a boon.
For Hamilton owners, hitting ninth would not be a tremendous loss.
He scored once every six at bats leading off. Once every eight at bats, batting ninth.
Not scoring a lot of runs from either place and his stolen base numbers, virtually unchanged.
The larger threat is being sent back down to the minors.

[ToddZ]

That's an interesting way of analyzing things. Just focusing on HR and SB, it looks like 49 HR is roughly equal to 25 SB (putting aside that each HR also produces a R and at least one RBI). It's tough to think of Billy Hamilton's very disappointing 2015 season as somehow being "better" than Chris Davis' pretty positive 2015 season, but I guess it just shows how valuable SBs have become now that they are becoming increasingly scarce.

Interestingly, I've never been particularly tempted by Hamilton, although I've snatched Revere up in two of my first three drafts. Of course, that could just mean I'm an idiot. I think I tend to shy away from one-category wonders, but somehow am more easily satisfied with Revere's lower SB capability because he is a plus BA guy and at least is average in terms of scoring Runs.

Mike

You really need to account for replacement of each stat at each position to get the truer percentages but this is a moving target and hard to pinpoint and is in fact different per league. Big-picture wise, it brings the SB closer to HR in a stat for stat comparison.

There's a lot of talk about the cutline ADP resembling the roto ADP -- an argument I feel is fallacious with Hamilton being a great example. Steals come in bunches - usually when a team is facing a catcher horrible at throwing runners out. These weeks Hamilton is likely to make your team's cut while missing it the weeks he doesn't run. Without giving too much away, this changes his draft rank for me (when compared to his rank based solely on expected points. Other players that are of this ilk are LHB that are significantly better against RHP and players in either really good or really bad hitting parks. Their week to week variance supersedes their expected points with respect to draft rank. Sorry for the digression.

[DOUGHBOYS]

As to the Hamilton/Revere comp....

Even though their specialty is speed, it is apples and oranges.
Revere will never steal 100 bases or even 75 for Toronto.
Hamilton is drafted because he can for Cincinnati.

Hamilton drafters are willing to take it up the wazoo in three and a half other categories for those many, many stolen bases.
Revere is more refined as a batter. Also playing on a field with more room for small ball hits.
Revere will be batting in a loaded line up.
While that may help his runs category, it may shorten stolen bases.
With Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion at bat, the need for a stolen base pales.
Hamilton has no such problem in Cincinnati.

With Revere, drafters are getting a solid three category player.
With Hamilton, drafters are obtaining many points in one category.

[DOUGHBOYS]

An E-Mail, regarding this thread....

'Drafting Billy Hamilton is to fantasy as screwing a voluptuous woman while married to another, is in real life.
Both feel so good on one level.
But afterwards, we are left to solve the problems that act initiated.'

[ToddZ]

A fun read starring two of our favorite Reds

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-bill ... ive-bases/