Junk...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Look what the Orioles have become!
Once a factory for pitching, they now decide whether Chris Tillman or Ubaldo Jimenez starts on Opening day.
That's like deciding whether you want to trim your nails with a hacksaw or chainsaw.
The Orioles up and coming arms like Gausman and Bundy and whoever else they have, always seem to have physical problems.
Ironic in that the Orioles medical staff seems to turn most trades aside because players don't fit their physical standards.

The Orioles fit well in their division though.
Of the top 50 pitchers in adp, only four starters come from this division.
David Price
Chris Archer
Marcus Stroman
Masahiro Tanaka
Not exactly, show stopping pitchers themselves, but at least every team in the division has an 'ace'.
Except Baltimore.
'Ace' is used really loosely since Price is the only Starter who has really had that label.
Baltimore starts Tillman.
Tillman is not even a face card, let alone an 'Ace'.

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I've got the number one pick in an upcoming Main Event.
Traditional thinking says that I should take one of the Big Three. And I probably will.
Still, I my left brain urges myself that I can have ANY player I want. The only pick that allows that.
It wants me to be sure that those three are better this year than the year that Mookie Betts or Giancarlo Stanton will have.
My right brain side is saying, "Big deal, every pick is a matter of taking the best player on the board. Don't overthink it."
Having a number one pick in a big event is cool.
Not only do you decide who you would like, but also know who you'll be rooting for all year.
No matter how many Cutline Leagues or Draft Championship teams we have, we follow the big money teams FIRST.

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We all like to say we're professional in our approach to these drafts, but no matter who you are, we are swayed by things that make us...umm...less professional.
Whether it is being a fan of a team.
Or plain liking a player.
Or knowing a player.
Or liking a player that was rostered on previous fantasy teams.
Or, an easy to root-for player.
Or even something as simple as being up late and giving a nod to West Coast players, so we can watch them.
As I'm getting (even) older, I find myself getting less professional.

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I don't know Patrick Davitt. I am sure he is a nice guy and that he knows his Numerish.
What he does NOT KNOW is the NFBC.
He writes for the Baseball Headquarters crew and somebody sent me this blurb that he wrote...

....'The splits I’m about to talk about are based on splits of owners’ actual spending, not hitting as a percentage of the theoretical league maximum of $260.
In the AL-only league, which I’m playing in, the overall split was 70%-30%, off maybe a point or two from what we might expect. But the split was skewed upward by one owner’s extreme budget strategy. Steve Moyer of Inside Edge tried a near-Labadini Plan, spending $248 of his $260 on hitting and just $12 on pitching. That’s a 95% hitter split! Without Moyer’s extreme split, the league would have had a 68-32 split, quite low for modern auctions. The low split in this league was 58% by Lawr Michaels of Mastersball, who often takes this sort of path, but six of the 12 AL Touts had splits of 67% or lower.
In the NL-only league, the split was 69-31. The high split was BaseballHQ.com’s Phil Hertz at 76%, the low belonged to defending champ Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus at 62%.
The Mixed Auction league split 76-24 overall, but with an interesting divide among individual teams. Four of the 15 touts in Mixed were over 80%, led by Al Melchior and Scott Pianowski at 85%. At the same time, four more touts were under 70%, led by Nando DiFino at 66%.

Of course it might be that none of this will affect your leagues directly, but experts’ drafts do influence home and NFBC drafts, and this sideways drift towards higher pitching spends should be something you’re at least thinking about as you head toward your draft table. '

Patrick, I really hate to tell you this, but experts drafts are both a misnomer and have zero effect on NFBC drafts.
Most, even give us a chuckle.
If anything, we are the trend setters.
How long did it take you fellas to actually draft pitching in high rounds?
'Expert' drafts are quickly dismissed by the NFBC community.
In the mean time, 'experts' are using NFBC ADP in discussing 'VALUE' .
The tail is certainly wagging the dog in this case.

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I miss the one Main Event.
I miss us clamoring for that draft spot.
Having a hundred or more drafters on the Message Boards. Waiting to see their draft spot.
Good times.

I know we can never get those times back. Money dictates our real world and our fantasy world.
To me, KDS means little since the advent of multiple Mains.
For live events, I think it would add a little more color to show up to our drafts a half hour or an hour early to search out our name tags.
THAT. That moment would be the first inkling of where we would draft. And with who.
It wouldn't take Greg/Tom any longer since they can run draft orders privately and have everything set up on our arrival.
If anything, I think this would add to our Christmas Day excitement that the Live Main Event entails.

[Captain Hook]

I miss the one Main Event.
I miss us clamoring for that draft spot.
Having a hundred or more drafters on the Message Boards. Waiting to see their draft spot.
Good times.

Amen Brother

And Best of Luck with your #1 pick league

[Bjs2025]

I agree on the "experts are trendsetters" point, Judging by what some of them do in these drafts it seems clear its more of a "fun experiment" than it is an honest attempt to win. Seriously, spending $12 on pitching? I get that there is trading but what a joke. I for one looked at NFBC salary breakdowns not the industry standard.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'd like to add one more thing to this Junk......

This will come across as negative. No matter how I try to word it. But, oh well...

Was anybody else disappointed that the draft orders for the Main Event appeared on our home pages before it was on the Message Boards?
Even though the Main Event has evolved into an event in which one drafter can enter on umpteen nights, it was still cool to look through the leagues, anticipating our own names.
I would read the leagues from the bottom up, in hopes of getting a high pick some years.
Or even read the first few names and say, "Gosh, hope I'm not in that league!"
This year, that bit of entertainment was taken from us.
I missed it.

[KJ Duke]

I'd like to add one more thing to this Junk......

This will come across as negative. No matter how I try to word it. But, oh well...

Was anybody else disappointed that the draft orders for the Main Event appeared on our home pages before it was on the Message Boards?
Even though the Main Event has evolved into an event in which one drafter can enter on umpteen nights, it was still cool to look through the leagues, anticipating our own names.
I would read the leagues from the bottom up, in hopes of getting a high pick some years.
Or even read the first few names and say, "Gosh, hope I'm not in that league!"
This year, that bit of entertainment was taken from us.
I missed it.

No doubt. Almost every main event player would pile onto the MB at the same time waiting for slots to come out. Better yet, someone could show Greg how to use periscope (Shawn) and live stream video of picking draft slots!

[Big League Wood]

PD only plays in 2 leagues....

[rkulaski]

Great points regarding the main.

I used to love going on the messageboards and scrolling slowly to see my draft spot. Definitely miss that.

I know it will never happen and kudos to Greg and company for expanding the main to online and multiple entries, but I loved the Main when everyone had one chance and ONLY one chance. If you have 3 or 4 main event teams, and one of them wins the overall, it's still a great accomplishment, but I'll be the first to say it... it comes with an asterick. OOOH!

The online main is still the main. I feel lucky in this world to make a comfortable income, support a family, and still have leftover funds to support a hobby that I love. I am very very lucky. But, if I may, complain about my first world problems... An online main event draft isn't anywhere near the experience of a live main event draft. And just for the record, the online experience was no easier than the live. I wasn't familiar with most of the names in my league as I don't have time to keep up with the competition. But it was a difficult draft. Probably the toughest I did in the nfbc this year. But not nearly as enjoyable as a live main event. Like I said, I feel very lucky to even be able to participate in these high-stakes drafts and the online is so much better than no main event at all.

Am I the only one who would buy an nfbc t shirt or cap and wear it regularly year round? I know Greg and Tom used to have some merchandise. I know others would likely buy something as there are a lot of die-hards here.

Great comments from doughboys regarding the "experts" and their drafts. Some of the fantasy baseball broadcast I would listen to commuting to work would often refer to NFBC adp. Seems like this year more than ever. When adp data become available months before the season starts, it is amazing what the nfbc drafters have already created. I would say they are the real "experts" if we have to use the word "experts."

[Bronx Yankees]

Am I the only one who would buy an nfbc t shirt or cap and wear it regularly year round? I know Greg and Tom used to have some merchandise. I know others would likely buy something as there are a lot of die-hards here.

I would immediately buy an NFBC t-shirt, jersey, cap and almost anything else reasonably offered. I regret not snatching the swag up when sold a bunch of years ago. I was kind of new to the NFBC back then, did not frequent the boards all that much, and did not realize it was a very limited time offer. Here's hoping some new swag is designed and sold one of these days.

Mike

[rkulaski]

Hey Bronx,

I'll email Greg and Tom and see if they can come up with something. NFBC has grown so much since then, so maybe they would go for it.

[Bronx Yankees]

Richard, that would be great. Thanks. If Greg and Tom need any convincing, we could move this discussion to the general forum. Have to think there are others that would buy stuff.

Mike

[Red Sox Nation-]

Richard, that would be great. Thanks. If Greg and Tom need any convincing, we could move this discussion to the general forum. Have to think there are others that would buy stuff.

Mike

+1

[marknym]

experts drafts are both a misnomer and have zero effect on NFBC drafts.
Most, even give us a chuckle.
If anything, we are the trend setters.
How long did it take you fellas to actually draft pitching in high rounds?
'Expert' drafts are quickly dismissed by the NFBC community.
In the mean time, 'experts' are using NFBC ADP in discussing 'VALUE' .
The tail is certainly wagging the dog in this case.

Bravo.

[Captain Hook]

won't totally solve the problem BUT, Please don't call them "expert draft" they are "Industry Drafts"
(and not much more although there are some excellent players mixed in there but those drafts are valuable ONLY if you happen to play in exactly the same format OR to see what players like Todd, or Fred Zinkie, or whichever ones you respect think about certain players in that context)

[DOUGHBOYS]

Perry, I was making reference to Patrick Davitt's column only.
He, himself called it an 'Expert's Draft'.
We can't call them 'industry drafts' until those in the industry, themselves, all get together along with their sites, to call them 'industry drafts'.
I don't believe this will ever happen.
The truth is that most sites like to tout their writers as 'experts'.
And you're right, some writers are very good fantasy players.
While some.....are good writers.
And of course, on the back cover of every Baseball Forecaster, it states that it is written by 'real experts'.
Whatever that means.