Drafting 14 and 15

[DOUGHBOYS]

The other day, a fellow questioned taking Matt Harvey with the 16th pick of the draft. Other players that are down in adp have also been taken by bottom of the first round drafters.

Troy Tulowitzki
Madison Bumgarner
Jose Fernandez
George Springer
Chris Sale
JD Martinez
Joey Votto
Yoenis Cespedes
Starling Marte
Chris Davis
Buster Posey
Jose Abreu
Jose Bautista
Edwin Encarnacion
Zack Greinke
Charlie Blackmon
Gerritt Cole
Billy Hamilton
Joey Votto
Kyle Schwarber

These names have all been selected in the bottom of the first round or top of the second.
The bottom of the draft is a different world than the top or middle of a draft. Folks in the front or middle of a draft have a surer confidence that their first round pick will fulfill all their dreams of fantasy dominance.
Drafters at the end of the first round think a little more out of the box.

Unlike top and middle drafters, bottom drafters are not relying on top players or guarantees.
And unlike top and middle drafters, bottom drafters are thinking in pairs.
He wants the two best players that will be a foundation for his roster.
ADP is out the window.
He has to think...
Does Miggy have his power back?
Is Scherzer better than EVERY pitcher usually going in the third or fourth round?
Are Betts and Pollock for real?
Is Dee Gordon, a judy, worth such a high pick?

If the answers to any or all of these questions are 'no', than the drafter has to select from every other player(s) in the pool.
Other drafters may question them because 'It doesn't fit the script', but it's the nature of the beast.
ADP was built on drafts starting in October.
Early drafts are based almost solely on the previous year. A reason players like Harper, Correa, Betts, and Pollock have such high adp's.
They had tremendous years and to think it wouldn't continue into the next year is hard to fathom.
But of course, it happens to some.

ADP is also built from 50 player drafts. Positionality is more of a concern when there is no FAAB.
Anthony Rendon had a high adp last year.
He was the daily double of coming off a good year and dual positionality.
Fools gold.
There is a lot of fools gold in this years draft. We just don't know it yet.
Still, we'll question a bottom of the first round drafter for bypassing Mookie Betts or AJ Pollock for a player usually taken in the third round.
Betts and Pollock are far from sure things. Both, not pallatable to Missouri/Missouri (shoe me twice) drafters.
While pedodrafters (loves kids) will snap them up.

No matter where we draft, with every pick, we are trying to pick the best player available.
Somehow, that job is more intense as the pool widens for the bottom drafters.
There are baseball stars, shooting stars, and falling stars.
The top drafters get to shoot for the moon.
The task for the bottom drafter is to select a pair of players that will rocket them to the same destination.

Drafting 14 or 15 forces us to be creative.
We are not like the top drafters who deciding on the spoils of Trout, Harper, Goldy, or Kershaw.
We don't have a clue in who will be available to us.
We have to be quick on our feet. Trust in our study. And even take a Matt Harvey or Kyle Schwarber if believing in them more than what the draft hands us.
That's just the way bottom drafters roll.

[Gekko]

you can win from any draft slot, right. LOL

[Le Grand Orange]

I was that fellow and certainly meant no offense to the drafter who took Harvey at 15. I was commenting on how I think the Met starters are being overdrafted some this year. I don't mind going SP there, but like Scherzer much better in that spot, although that is personal preference. As for picking 14 or 15, I generally avoid it because of how open-ended it is, but appreciate that it may allow for more creativity.

[knuckleheads]

The most over-drafted players tend to play for the Red Sox and Mets.

[DOUGHBOYS]

We also seem so tethered to the previous years stats.
Max Scherzer follows Kershaw in most drafts. In the earliest of drafts, it was Jake Arrieta. But now with most drafters knowing Arrieta has added an extra 100 innings or so to his arm each of the last two years, he has settled in behind Scherzer.
Last year, it was Felix Hernandez who followed Kershaw. The year before, Yu Darvish. Both, because of sterling previous years.
I am as guilty as the next fella about too much reliance on last years stats. I have to tell myself that we're not re-running a season, we are starting a new one.
Matt Harvey will not be babied this year. He could surpass Scherzer. As could Chris Sale, As could Madison Bumgarner.
Or even some pitcher can come from nowhere as Arrieta did last year.
It's a whole new year.
But mostly, adp reflects the last.

[Gekko]

Night night