Two Months....

[DOUGHBOYS]

We're two months into the season. That is a large time stamp for NFBC players.
We, no longer are subject to 'small sample size'.
Now, players are what they are. Some are under performing and will perform appreciably better as the season progresses.
Others, the opposite.
And still others will roll along with how they're playing now.

Our standings now mean something. If in the bottom five of a 15 team league, we're in trouble.
In the middle, there is still time.
And if near the top, buckle up and make more good decisions.
Although we are always accumulating statistics, now we start peaking as to where we can maximize potential for points.
Some categories could have a rather easy five point jolt with the right personnel.
Some categories may be such a lost cause that we punt or for the lucky or good, may be a category of little concern because of a big lead.

In FAAB, we might start looking for a particula skill rather than just accumulation.
A stolen base guy, preferable to an 'all or nothing' hitter or vice versa.
Peripherals in pitching may now take a backseat to Wins, K's, and/or Saves.
One thing remains true for this time of year.
We can't win the Championship yet, but we can lose it.
We may feel more pressure.
Somebody hasn't produces as hoped and is dropped early.
Most of the time, this backfires.
Patience is as much of a part of our game as any emotion.
We get so tired of an under producing hitter that we don't want to even see him on our roster.
BASTARD!
But, a strange metamorphis takes place when this happens.
He starts producing.
For another team.
Now, he has helped that team be deflating your stats, then inflating your competition's.
DOUBLE BASTARD!

For my losing teams, it's a good time to see where I went wrong.
Most of the time, I come away thinking (excuse my french)...
What the fuck was I thinking?
What did I see in Dallas Keuchel? Charlie Blackmon? Joey Votto?
(Not really on Votto, just wanted to see if you were still paying attention)
One thing I have found are that NFBC strategies are secondary.
Choose three hitters in the first three rounds.
Choose three pitchers in the first three rounds.
It doesn't matter.
What matters is WHO those three hitters and WHO those three pitchers are.
Start off with McCutchen, Gordon, and J Upton?
It isn't the strategy, it's the players.
Start off with Altuve, Betts, and Cano?
Some ridiculed taking two 2B so early and you're having the last laugh.
Take Kershaw, Arrieta, and Sale?
Now, those three pitchers at the front don't look so bad.
And if taking Story, Duvall, and Trumbo later...power is caught up

During draft season we get so caught up in the what (strategy) where (the player was picked), we forget the most important thing for during our season,.... WHO.
If the strategy was middle infielders in the first few rounds, it looks good if Altuve and Cano were taken.
Not so much if the first two were Gordon and Dozier.


At this stage of the season, we know the hits and misses.
We know the right's and wrong's we've done in managing them.
It's harder in the NFBC than in any other league to right previous wrongs.
There are no miracle trades for us. That is left to other leagues who play with that wild card.
Our team's are built on the draft and faab pick-ups and moxie.
Those three ingredients as important as the other over the next four months.

[skmetz51]

Great post, Dan, as usual,
Isn't this also the start of the big con? That is, maybe sometimes we might just be conning ourselves, but refuse to acknowledge it? We've spent all that time preparing, researching and then . . . We know that only a third of the season is gone, but damn, that guy's ahead of me in HRs by 30 and surely his Trumbo and Story can't keep this up. Maybe I get 15 more HRs than him in the 2nd third and the same in the last third, AND WE'RE TIED! But we don't always realize that, even if I catch him, maybe someone else might too. That guy who's also ahead of me. His Belt and Betts have to slow down, and my JUpton and Cruz are about to break out. Aren't they?

I have all the time in the world, don't I? But maybe I don't. Then there comes that point of the season that we rationalize -- just before we throw in the towel for good. And then we say, at least I might win the post-season tournament. I got a chance, right? And if that doesn't work, there are the November DCs and knowing what I know now, I can't lose.

The big con never ends.
Good luck, man. And keep writing. -- Steve M/Lets Go Metz

[DOUGHBOYS]

So true, Steve.
Patience is key. We KNOW that there is more in Upton and Cruz than we've seen.
At the same time, it's hard for our brains to tolerate what our eyes have seen over the last two months.
Story and Trumbo are two of the sexiest players in our game.
Two months from now, that sentence may get a chuckle.

And, I may be even conning myself in saying that patience is key.
What if we hold Upton and he has a BJ year?
Patience will have screwed me.
It's neverending.
But, NFBC fantasy baseball is a neverending story.
Thanks for the compliments. Really appreciated.

Dan

[headhunters]

good "right" up dan. i FINALLY benched lind last week- ya that is working out.

[DOUGHBOYS]

good "right" up dan. i FINALLY benched lind last week- ya that is working out.

I hear you, Mike.
I benched Cron this period.
We all do it.
It just goes to show that some of the dumbest people do smart things and some of the smartest people do dumb things.
Still up in the air which group applies to me.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Along these same lines...I would love to see a new stat for the NFBC.
I have little faith in Cousin IT, so I would never ask for this stat, but it sure would be fun just the same.....
The Start/Bench stat...
This stat would be side by side with your player stats.
Not only could we look at what our players have done from their starting positions (our real stats), but we could see how our stats would have looked had we played our optimum player every given period.

I would guess that the best teams would also have the worst of this stat. Good teams have solid benches and more options. More options maximize bad decisions.
A bad team with four or five hurt players have limited options and less prone to leave good statistics on their bench.
It would be an interesting look anyway.

[KJ Duke]

Another stat I'd like to see in general ... splits showing how a pitcher fares in 2-start weeks vs 1-start.

It often seems that those 2-start weeks that we crave turn out to be disappointing, but maybe that's just biased recall.

[Edwards Kings]

Another stat I'd like to see in general ... splits showing how a pitcher fares in 2-start weeks vs 1-start.

It often seems that those 2-start weeks that we crave turn out to be disappointing, but maybe that's just biased recall.

Hmmm....interesting.

Just working from my current team over the first eight weeks (small scale to say the least), my starting pitchers have generated:

Pitchers IP H ERA W L WHIP K BB SV GS ER W%

Two Start 140.0 118 3.021 12 3 1.171 119 46 - 22 47 54.5%

One Start 226.3 184 2.624 18 5 1.096 209 64 - 36 66 50.0%

Total 366.3 302 2.776 30 8 1.125 328 110 - 58 113 51.7%


For my guys, the two start weeks generated higher ERA, WHIP, H%, lower K%, K/BB ratio.

I guess to be really valuable we would need at least a years worth of data, but filtered against the spot starters (and maybe most fifth starters) in order to be truly representative of the pitching pool for 15-team leagues.