Can We Pick 'Em?

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Can We Pick 'Em?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:04 am

We're two thirds of the way through the season.
Let's give some some pre-mature thoughts to players that have been the best at their positions.
And at the same time, make a little fun of ourselves for being stupid enough to not know them before the season.
We're just not very smart.
And ADP?
If we're not smart, that makes ADP so very, very dumb.

Catchers-
Catchers are rancid this year. Even more so than in past years. Catchers are to baseball as tight ends are to football. We hold our nose and try to pick the best we can.
Only five catchers can say that they have a mediocre 10 homers with a .270 batting average.
Only ten catchers can even say they have 10 homers, period.
Some like to pick Buster Posey early in hopes of getting an edge on others taking catchers lately. Unfortunately for them, Posey has not outplayed all catchers. Instead, he is in a group with Jonathon Lucroy and Salvy Perez behind the catcher to have this year.
Wilson Ramos.
Ramos line is .337/42/14/53/0
Ranking Ramos first in batting average, first in rbi, and tied for the lead in home runs among catchers.
By ADP, Ramos was the 17th catcher selected. Just behind Blake Swihart and Nick Hundley.
Chalk one up for the non-ADP followers.

First Baseman-
This is a bad year for first basemen as well. Not as bad as catchers. Heck, Ryan Howard has as many homers (14) as the leading home run hitting catchers.
BUT, there is not one first baseman hitting .300....not one.
Sweet swinging first sackers Miguel Cabrera, Goldy, Votto, Hosmer and not a .300 average among them.
Before the season, the best first baseman was easy. It was going to be Paul Goldschmidt.
It's always easy before the season, right.
Goldschmidt hasn't dumped on his owners.
He just hasn't given top of the first round numbers. His line, .289/58/17/63/13 is purely acceptable.
Anthony Rizzo has given good first base as well. His line, .287/59/24/75/2 could be argued as the best among first sackers.
But, we have to consider price. Rizzo's price was a first round pick.
Wil Myers price was a 13th round pick.
Myers is just three stolen bases shy of being a 20/20 player by the end of July!
Myers line, .275/65/20/63/17
We swung and missed on Myers.

Second baseman-
We got this one right!
Sorta.
Jose Altuve is the best fantasy player in the world this year. Better than Trout. Better than (cough, cough) Harper.
We can take credit that we had Altuve as the best second baseman.
At the same time, we drafted 10 players in front of Altuve. We didn't even foresee Altuve as being the best fantasy player on his own team. Carlos Correa had that honor with an ADP of six, while Altuve's ADP was 11.
.360/75/17/60/25
Incredible.
If somebody had told me that Jose Altuve would have four more rbi than a healthy Manny Machado near the end of July, I would have told them to pound sand.
He does.
And has a chance for a season ending line of .350/120/30/100/40
THAT, that would be something.
I can't leave 2b without mentioning Daniel Murphy.
We thought his playoff run was a matter of him getting hot t the right time.
Surprise!
Murphy has stayed hot all year.
We thought of him as a Neil Walker type when drafting last year.
Like the Mets and Nats know, it is better having Murphy.

Third Baseman-
I'm going to give us a Win for this one.
We had four third basemen in the first round.
Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Kris Bryant.
Except for Machado, each have fulfilled expectations.
Machado drafters thought they would get a little speed with their power numbers. Machado had 20 stolen bases last year.
This year, he has as many as Todd Zola.

Shortstop-
Where to begin.
This shortstop position is DEEP.
Before the season, we were dippy enough to believe that only Carlos Correa should be the only shortstop drafted in the first three rounds.
Then Tulo.
Ugh.
While we had Correa as the overall sixth pick before the season, he ranks now as the seventh SHORTSTOP on the NFBC player rater.
Of course, the NFBC player rater sucks in that it leans way too much in the sb department to be considered a truly viable source.
So, who is the best shortstop?
Take your pick.
Do you want average and good numbers with an accent on batting average?
May I suggest Zander Bogaerts or Francisco Lindor, or Aldyms Diaz or Corey Seager. All hitting above .300 and doing well in most categories.
Want speed?
Jonathon Villar and Eduardo Nunez are there for those and other categories too.
Want power?
Trevor Story, Correa, Marcus Semien, Danny Espinoza, Tulo, Zack Cozart, and Brad Miller all have at least 15 homers.
More homers than ANY (Even Gattis has 16 homers, yes, but did not have C status for most of the season) catcher.
Who's the best?
I don't know.
A fantasy player can be happy with all shortstops mentioned.
One thing is for sure.
We were wrong in thinking that Correa would be better than all other shortstops.

Outfielders-
Trout, Harper and the rest, right?
Well, that's the way it was before the season.
The season has a way of kicking our ass, doesn't it?
Trout has been great as a number one pick.
.314/75/19/62/17 is a damned good line.
And like Myers and Altuve, Trout could go 30/30.
We'll give ourselves an easy 'attaboy' for Trout.
Not with Harper.
Harper hasn't been the same since the Cubs walked him for a series.
.274/19/10/26/5
Those were Harper's numbers after just a month and week into the season before his ill fated series with the Cubs.
In almost three months since...
.231/34/10/29/10
The speed numbers, a pleasant surprise.
But those that were touting a 50 home run year in a climate of long ball thunder were sorely wrong.
97 players in baseball have as many extra base hits as Bryce Harper.
Including (gulp) four catchers!...And Didi Gregorius.

Let's make quick work of picking the three best outfielders.
Trout, Mookie Betts, and Ian Desmond.
Desmond, another of those great shortstop seasons, but converted to outfielder.
(For you positionality-first folk, Manny Machado will be 3B/SS eligible next year)
These three outfielders are the only outfielders that can claim that they are batting over .300 with at least a 50/15/50/15 line to go with the average.

Utility-
Two words.
David Ortiz.

So, there you have it.
The best and our ineptness in picking the best.
If your team includes all of....

C- Wilson Ramos
1B- Wil Myers
2B- Jose Altuve
3B- Any first round adp pick
SS-Any of the above
OF- Mike Trout/Mookie Betts/Ian Desmond
U- David Ortiz

You are GOLD!
Unless, of course, you missed on pitching. :o :D
That comes here tomorrow
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Can We Pick 'Em?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:25 am

There will be three players that will go number one Overall in this coming year's draft.
Mike Trout because...well...because he is Mike Trout.
Jose Altuve coming off a wonderful year.
And Clayton Kershaw who flat out dominated from a position that never has been a consideration for the number one Overall pick. A pitcher.

Kershaw's status will be determined on news reports concerning his injury. If the injury is deemed to have lasting effects, it's a safe bet that Kershaw would lose ground in drafts.
Kershaw's injury keeps him from being the best fantasy pitcher this year. Fantasy owners are a "What have you done for me lately?" crowd. Always looking for the next great performance, knowing that past performances are already filed and part of a plethora of already used numbers.
For this year, Kershaw goes down as a fantasy revelation while also being a fantasy disappointment. A pitcher that had owners riding his amazing numbers only to find them irreplaceable when injured.
Kershaw has cemented his name as the best pitcher in baseball. At the same time, having Kershaw's name on our roster is like having a Corvette with no ignition in our garage. We can admire but the benefits are nil.

1 Kershaw, Clayton
2 Scherzer, Max
3 Arrieta, Jake
4 Sale, Chris
5 Bumgarner, Madison
6 Harvey, Matt
7 Fernandez, Jose
8 Price, David
9 Greinke, Zack
10 deGrom, Jacob
11 Cole, Gerrit
12 Kluber, Corey
13 Strasburg, Stephen
14 Keuchel, Dallas
15 Syndergaard, Noah
16 Carrasco, Carlos
17 Archer, Chris
18 Hernandez, Felix
19 Lester, Jon
20 Gray, Sonny

Here are the top 20 pitchers according to ADP.
Or as I call them, 'the usual suspects. These pitchers all show good strikeout stuff and have had good years in the past.
And if nothing else, we're suckers for strikeouts and the past!

Let's eliminate the pitchers who got hurt.
1 Kershaw
6 Harvey
9 Greinke
11 Cole
16 Carlos Carrasco
18 Hernandez

That's almost a third of our pitchers up in smoke.

Now, let's eliminate the pitchers who have under performed.

8 David Price
14 Dallas Keuchel
17 Chris Archer
20 Sonny Gray

Half of those pitchers, fallen.

Now, let's throw in one other factor. A factor that sabrmetric followers abhor.
Luck.

10 Jake deGrom

deGrom has as many wins as Mat Latos and Tony Barnette. A pair with not not enough t's in a first name and too many t's in the last.
deGrom was afflicted with Shelby disease this year. Pitching well and not getting much credit.

That leaves us with nine Starters who have lived up to their drafters expectations.
But, have they bettered expectations?
These fellas have not.

2 Scherzer
3 Arrieta
12 Kluber

Scherzer and Arrieta have had fine seasons. Owners though, want SPECTACULAR seasons if taking a pitcher in the first or second round.
Kluber has been Kluber.

That leaves us with six pitchers who have done really well for themselves and their owners.
The best of the best

4 Chris Sale
5 Madison Bumgarner
7 Jose Fernandez
13 Steven Strasburg
14 Noah Syndergaard
19 Jon Lester

Now, here's the problem. These six still came at a high price. Sure, they are doing everything to keep their owners happy.
But, their owners PAID for that happiness.
Look at this list

Steven Wright
Aaron Sanchez
Carlos Martinez
Chris Tillman
JA Happ
Josh Tomlin

I know. I know.
Sexy was just tossed through the window.
We want our dominance!
These guys may not have the blow away stuff (except CarMa....ok I made up that nickname) but they are flat getting the job done.
Tillman has as many Wins as Sale and doesn't go Edward Scissorhands on his uni's.
Wright has a better E.R.A. than Strasburg
Tomlin the same WHIP as Lester
Sanchez, who was supposed to have his innings limited, has thrown 12 more innings than Fernandez, who was supposed to have his innings limited.

Next year in drafts, Tomlin, Happ and others will fall in roundage.
Drafters love dominance. Dominance is obtained in swings and misses.

These are the top 10 strike out leaders for this year.

1 Max Scherzer
2 Jose Fernandez
3 Madison Bumgarner
4 Stephen Strasburg
5 Chris Archer
6 David Price
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Justin Verlander
9 Corey Kluber
10 Noah Syndergaard

Look familiar?
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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