Opportunity Not Wasted

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Opportunity Not Wasted

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:39 am

Do you know who struck out the most in Major League baseball last year?
Do you know who was caught stealing the most last year.
Most do not. Even seasoned NFBC owners who have studied a lot during the off season, do not know the answers to those questions.
And they shouldn't.
They're static stats.
Something for Bill James or Ron Shandler or even me to talk about.

Some treat too many strike outs or too many caught steals as significant.
It may be that we've been with the NFBC too long, we just don't. We care more about what a batter CAN do for our categories over his failures.
Sure, we wish that Chris Davis would make more contact if rostering him. At the same time, we drafted him for his home runs. We knew about the strike outs before drafting Davis.
Didn't care.
Davis did lead baseball with 219 strike outs.

Jonathon Villar led baseball in getting caught stealing.
To Villar owners, this was like receiving a letter that we were to receive a five million dollar inheritance, only to find out it was 4.75 million later.
Villar had more stolen bases (62)and more caught stealing (18) than any other player in baseball.
Villar gave his owners what every owner wants from a speed guy. Seizing opportunity.
I would rather have a player who WANTS to run more than a player who is smart and picks his opportunity.
One of the worst fantasy base stealers is Brett Gardner.
I say FANTASY base stealer because Gardner is a great REAL baseball thief.
Gardner had seasons of 47 and 49 steals in '10 and '11, yet still under performed in that category.
Sure, the end result left owners happy, but with a more reckless mindset, he could have been a better fantasy than real thief.
We're selfish, we care more about our teams than the players teams :)
Gardner hardly ever steals on the first pitch from pitchers. preferring to go deep into counts before attempting a stolen base.
While this may be 'smart', both for him and the Yankees (although the Yankees have emphasized aggressiveness to Gardner), his fantasy owners lose opportunity.

Any time I see one of my speed guys get thrown out trying to steal, I salute them for the try.
The CS, more of a positive than a negative.
An opportunists however needs a good ratio.
Paul Goldschmidt stole 32 bases, got caught just five times.
If an opportunist gets caught stealing a lot, he knows that the jig is up. He knows that pitchers have started to look at him more than he's looking for opportunity and soon all opportunities start to vanish.
Goldschmidt and Mike Trout each attempted stealing 37 times last year. Even if getting thrown out 15 times, Trout would continue on the base paths, while Goldschmidt would run fewer times.
Surprisingly, Jose Altuve only attempted three more thefts than Trout and Goldy.
Has he changed?
His Manager?
Team dynamics?
Batting order change?
All of these things come into play for a real speedster.
It signals to me that Altuve may not get the stolen bases his owners were used to in the past. Lately, his power drive has made up for that and he continues to be a high pick.
The decline of opportunities on the bases has me thinking that Altuve may be a little over drafted even with the elite batting skills.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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