The High Cost of Good Peripherals

[DOUGHBOYS]

In the NFBC, we love strike outs from our pitchers. Strike out pitchers, year in and year out, are the first pitchers selected in drafts.
Of the top 12 pitchers taken in NFBC drafts this year, 11 struck out 190 or more batters last year. The exception being Yu Darvish who has topped that figure easily in past years.
The numbers 13 and 14 pitchers selected in drafts are Closers.
Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
Chapman and Jansen are selected highly because of strike outs as well.

As drafters, we virtually give up in predicting Saves. Instead, we draft Closers based on high strike out return and low peripherals that are ERA and WHIP.
Chapman and Jansen have never led the league in Saves.
It may even surprise you that although Chapman has been known as the cream of the crop of Closers, he has never finished in the top five in Saves in ANY year.
Jansen, only twice.

What is more surprising is that neither are no longer the elite options for k/9 by relievers.
And here's the kicker, two of the three top k/9 relievers in baseball are not Closers for their team.
Here are those three...

Delin Betances- 15.53/9
Edwin Diaz- 15.33/9
Andrew Miller- 14.89/9

Betances and Miller have Closer type stuff and have closed before. The problem for NFBC owners is that they don't have a Closing job RIGHT NOW.
Miller, even without the Closer's job, is still the 12th reliever taken.
Betances 22nd.
The belief for NFBC owners is that Miller is closer to having the job than Betances.
Miller is even being taken ahead of his teammate Cody Allen who HAS the closing gig. Allen, the 13th reliever off the board.

Are Miller and Betances worth seventh round and 11th round picks, where they are being drafted in NFBC drafts?
I don't think so.
Both do give good peripherals, but so do Kyle Barraclough and Grant Dayton.
Being close to a Closer's job is like being close to Jennifer Aniston. Even though it makes you feel good, the fantasy benefits are never realized.
Some draft Miller and Betances as 'seventh starters'. A pitcher to be used in a week of bad matchups.
Is that really worth a seventh or 11th round draft choice.
Especially when FAAB is used for the same purpose.

I believe that Miller and Betances will start a fall from their 105 and 163 adp's.
There'll be two reasons for this.
Miller and Betances are a little more valuable to 50 round rosters of the Draft Championships than they are to 30 round drafts. In 50 rounders, they can be used virtually every week to replace bad matchups and obtain their peripherals.
In 30 rounders, Wins are more obtainable by starting pitchers. Miller and Betances are replaced by 'double-start' pitchers from faab and other ways to build Wins and K's.
Second, as the off season progresses, more Closing jobs will be announced. Those that are announced as Closers will move up in drafts. We may believe Neftali Feliz is the Closer in Milwaukee, but we don't really know. Same with Kintzler, same with Street, same with Madson, same with Rodney, same with Johnson...you get the picture.

Miller and Betances may have the highest ratios of being better for their real teams as opposed to their fantasy teams.
Drafting them in the seventh and 11th rounds is the drafting of square pegs for round holes.
The most expensive Closers in Waiting possible.
I'm a proponent of talent over opportunity. But in this case, the price is too high.

[blazer68]

Very well thought out and explained theory and glad to see you are back giving us your insights