The End of Playing, the Beginning of Drafting

[DOUGHBOYS]

I am getting ready to draft in the Pre-Mature E-Draftulation League.
We get different feelings about players for this league that we don't get with any other draft.
It is because the players that we are studying are still playing. When drafting for other drafts, these players become just a big gob of numbers.
The point being that we see things from a much different perspective.

Looking at my current roster for the Main Event, something struck me. The vast amount of offensive players that I had rostered during the year.
48 offensive players!
Some were used for specific categories like Rajai Davis.
Some to catch a hot streak like Kendrys Morales.
Some weren't used at all like Byron Buxton.
It made me chuckle when thinking about folks who draft a team, then put numbers or expectations on those drafted as if they're going to be healthy or good all year long.
This thought made me look at how many offensive players of my 48 have I played without benching.
TWO!
Alex Bregman and Whit Merrifield.

The season long game is one of skill and luck. It is also a game of attrition.
The attrition can be tied to both luck and skill.
When drafting Troy Tulowitzki over the last 10 years, we know that the chances of injury are high. We hope for luck in health when drafting him.
There really is no skill in drafting him. His name looks larger than life next to lesser known players, so some take a shot that he'll somehow remain on the field.
The attrition in baseball, in my eyes, is half luck based, half skill based.
An example...
In my eyes, Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to be selected damned high in drafts for this coming year.
Major League Baseball looks like child's play to Acuna.
But, it won't be me drafting him. In watching Acuna, he still has the youthful exuberance in diving for balls, awkwardly, and crashing into fences.
I do not believe that he has a chance in Hell of being in my lineup every day. None.
He will get hurt. The question is for how long.
If minor, his injury will not hamper being a first round pick.
If major, I have lost my base pick for my team and it will make it very difficult in winning that league.
And that is the skill/luck in drafting a player like Acuna.

I have almost quit playing fantasy football (2 teams) because of attrition.
Injuries are almost all luck-based in that sport.
There is no way, from year to year, to guess who will be hurt and who will not.
The replacement factor in football, opposed to baseball is laughable as well.
Seldom does a backup quarterback match a starters stats in fantasy football. But, we are forced to table scraps when a starting quarterback goes down.

One of my favorite players on my Main Event team has been Franmil Reyes.
Have you ever been right on a player with most lineups when determining whether to start or bench him?
Reyes has been gold for me. Hitting over .300 when starting him.
He hits when I put him in the lineup. He sucks when I don't like his matchup.
Why can't every player be like that?
I also like Reyes so that I can thumb my nose at 'experts'.
Here is a Rotoblurb from early August....

'Padres recalled OF Franmil Reyes from Triple-A El Paso.

Reyes was just optioned back to Triple-A on Sunday, but he'll return with Wil Myers heading to the disabled list. He's hitting just .221/.270/.423 with six homers, eight RBI and a 42/7 K/BB ratio in his first 111 plate appearances at the big league level and can be ignored for fantasy purposes.'

How smart does this expert look now?

Getting back to the upcoming draft, I have made some drastic changes to who I think will go in the first round.
Partly because of Acuna.
I believe he will be drafted in the first round of most drafts.
And like Trea Turner (I still don't understand the #4 ADP) last year, it won't be me taking him so high.
Anyway, here is who I think will go in the first round in no certain order.

Mike Trout
Jose Altuve
Max Scherzer
Mookie Betts
JD Martinez
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Jake deGrom
Paul Goldschmidt
Nolan Arenado
Jose Ramirez
Francisco Lindor
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Chris Sale
Javy Baez

Machado and Harper will pick up steam as more and more is said about where they will sign for the coming year.
If, indeed, this is the top 15 in ADP for the coming year, it kicks out six players who were top 15 last year.
Trea Turner, Giancarlo Stanton, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Kluber, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant.
What are your thoughts?
How far off am I?
Let me know....

[Quahogs]

Hey Dough!

I think Bregman sneaks in top15. SS/3B 5 category-ish. I'd take him over Harper especially toward bottom end of draft.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Hi Steve!

Yeah, like all years, the first round will be fluid.
Harper will be taken higher when the hype is at its height. So will Machado.
You're right though, I believe that players like Bregman, Yelich, and Freeman see the first round too....

[DOUGHBOYS]

After conversations with 8-10 NFBC drafters.
Here are a few predictions in where some players will be drafted....

Juan Soto- second round
Ozzie Albies- third round
Freddy Freeman- second round
Anthony Rizzo- third round
Cody Bellinger- fourth round
Joey Votto- Sixth round (Mitch Moreland, with 100 less at bats, has more homers and as many rbi),,,just sayin....
By the way, experts claim that Votto's year "Hasn't been that bad". They point at his everloving OBP.
Keep walking, Joey! Analytics will always love you!
First Catcher- Fifth round
First Closer- Fourth round

The Pre-Mature League starts in one week.
I'll keep you posted on the early rounds....

[Scavenger]

I'd bet Yelich will be in the top 15 mix also.

[jvetter]

I'd be surprised if Trea Turner isn't drafted regularly in the 1st round again.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I believe he will too.
Although he belongs in the second or third round.
What makes Turner so appetizing?
What does he have that Merrifield or Marte doesn't have?
I really don't get it.

Others have made the slow descention from top of the first round to lower rounds.
Turner looks like he'll be a very slow mover down the scale.
What are people expecting from him to make him such a high pick?
To me, Trea Turner was hardly hurt this year.
Take the win.
Turner was Turner.
I just couldn't expect much more from him in future years.
Just puzzled why others do...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just started assembling my lists at shortstop.
I have five, possibly six SHORTSTOP ELIGIBLE players ahead of Turner.
Seriously, the kid can run, but other categories do not measure up.
Simply, he is not a first round player....Although again, like last year, he will be

[NorCalAtlFan]

6!!!? man, can't wait to get the premature rolling.

i see trea has replaced joey as your muse. well played sir

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ha!
Blame that on Votto, he sucked so bad, it's like piling on now!
I can only 'kill' his backers who point to his high on base percentage...UGH.

It is just not the player, Trea Turner.
By himself, Turner is a good ball player. Not a first rounder for my purposes, but a good ball player.
I saw what Managers did with their speed this year.
Billy Hamilton started hitting ninth.
Dee Gordon started hitting ninth.
Trea Turner was used at several places in the batting order.
Speed is being phased out of the top of the lineup.
Managers care less and less about stolen bases. It is a missed opportunity, if thrown out, for the seemingly five to six 25-30 home run hitters on each team to drive them in.
Small ball is gone.
Trea Turner's best attribute cannot be used as it was just two or three years ago.
It's not ALL about Turner. It is about the methodology of today's game.
And it effects our game. 30 homers is more important than 40 stolen bases in most cases.
Home runs immediately effect four categories.
A stolen base effects one and puts a runner in a better circumstance to effect another. meh
I went through the winners of leagues and saw very few Trea Turner drafters.
There is a reason for that.

[NorCalAtlFan]

hmm, you're swaying me. i'm moving him down from 7 to 12. i keep reading your stuff and he might move further!

[DOUGHBOYS]

I should really keep my mouth shut and celebrate when Turner is taken too soon

BUT....

One more reason for dropping Turner a little lower on draft lists....
HAVE YOU SEEN THE SHORTSTOP ELIGIBLE PLAYERS?!?!?
Wow.
It looks like all 15 teams will have a shortstop that will help their team.
Player per player, it may be, by far, the deepest position of all.
When players like Adalberto Mondesi, Didi Gregorius, Elvis Andrus, Corey Seager, and Jose Peraza can be taken AFTER 10 or 12 shortstops have already been selected, you know that this is one deep-assed position.