Let's talk Drafting!

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm loving drafting this year. There are so many options for the kinds of teams we want.
Just look at the first five picks.
Acuna, Trout, Yelich, Bellinger, and Cole.
Any one of these guys could be a dominant number one pick the following year.

Want stability?
Look at the middle of the round.
Betts, Lindor, deGrom, Verlander, Arenado, Bregman
All of these players have been there and done that.

Shoot for the moon?
Look at the last part of the round...
Soto, Tatis, Scherzer, Buehler, Story, Turner
These players can go crazy for a fantasy team or make a fantasy team look bad if not turning out right.
All have either very short histories or injuries that make drafters want to say, hmmmmm.

Last year, Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were being taken in early rounds as the best relievers in baseball.
That recency bias always seems to rear its head worst when it comes to Closers.
This year, Josh Hader and Kirby Yates are being taken early.
Again, recency bias is ruling the day on top relievers.
Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are being punished severely.

Pitching is so hard. I just wrapped up my early study of pitchers.
Only one pitcher in baseball got just the tiniest of demerits from me.
Jacob deGrom.
His only 'Con' in a list of pro's and con's for each pitcher is his team.
DeGrom would have to be awfully lucky to ever win 20 games.
And he SHOULD be a 20 game winner.
But, luck has never been on his side.
Most of that luck having to do with the team he plays for.

Here are two players that look very different but are really very similar in fantasy baseball.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Sale.
I know, I know, one is a kid, the other a veteran.
One plays for a nowhere team, the other a powerhouse.
One a hitter, one a pitcher.
Aside from all that, they are being taken highly in drafts.
Tatis Jr, as high as the first round. Sale, the second.
If drafters were guaranteed that either would answer the bell for every game or every start, they both would be taken in the top 10.
But, Tatis Jr. has only played over 100 games in a year once in his life.
And Sale lost velocity and had health issues throughout last year.
Their talents are far superior to that of mere mortal players.
Their kryptonite is health.
Each are an 'easy pass' for some drafters and a 'must take' for others.

[Thurman15]

For me, there are players that you mentioned, like Sale and Tatis that I do not even put on my list. Seriously. This is because I know with great certainty that while I do like them, they will be taken way before I'm willing to take them. This does not mean I refuse to draft a player who had question marks. I actually would draft Edwin Diaz again. Not too high, but in the middle of the closer list. So yes, it really depends on your own evaluation and your willingness to overlook the potential red flags in that particular player. So am I the only guy that will leave good players entirely off their lists ? I probably stroke off 20 good players knowing they will be long gone before I would take them.

[Gekko]

For me, there are players that you mentioned, like Sale and Tatis that I do not even put on my list. Seriously. This is because I know with great certainty that while I do like them, they will be taken way before I'm willing to take them. This does not mean I refuse to draft a player who had question marks. I actually would draft Edwin Diaz again. Not too high, but in the middle of the closer list. So yes, it really depends on your own evaluation and your willingness to overlook the potential red flags in that particular player. So am I the only guy that will leave good players entirely off their lists ? I probably stroke off 20 good players knowing they will be long gone before I would take them.

While i list all players, like you, i designate some as landmines. they are so far down my list, that there is no way they would ever be available where i would value them.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm with you, Al and Mark. There are landmines as we progress through drafts.
Would I draft Chris Sale?
Let him drop to the 8th round and ask me that question.
He is A LOT more risk than reward.
Risk/reward players, especially those that are heavy on risk, are a tough take for me in top rounds.
Even if avoiding injury, they still have to garner top round production.

There is a Hall of Fame NFBC player, who 'slumped' a bit after winning a lot of early Main Leagues.
One of the reasons for the slump was that he could not take a pass on Troy Tulowitzki in top rounds when the shortstop inventory was minimal.
His risk was also a lean over the reward.

If Sale has ANY arm concerns from now till April, his roundage falls dramatically.
During this time of year, unless it's a surgery, all medical reports are rosy. As they should be, these players haven't competed in a few months.
This also brings us back to the 'v word' (no, not vagina....get your minds outta the gutter) in value.
If Sale does have an arm issue, is he a value in any round?

Amusing story....
Miguel Andujar missed almost all of last year with an injury.
He was going in the fifth round of most drafts.
A friend of mine in the NFBC called me and said he had Andujar on his Main Event team.
I expressed sympathy.
He said, "What are you talkin' about,Dough?" "I got Andujar in the seventh round!" " VALUE! "

[Gekko]

Sale’s price point for big leagues will largely depend on spring training velocity. If promising, I could see him going over many of the puke SP currently being taken in the 2nd round.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I can say something negative about every starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. I truly believe that whoever gets pitching right this year, will most likely win their leagues.Offense is all over the place. If missing in a few positions with offense, other positions can still get you the necessary points to do well.
But pitching? Pitching is a bitch.

Here are the top 10 pitchers going in my current draft....

1. Gerritt Cole
2. Jake deGrom
3. Justin Verlander
4. Max Scherzer
5. Walker Buehler
6. Mike Clevinger
7. Shane Bieber
8. Jack Flaherty
9. Stephen Strasburg
10. Chris Sale

Only four of these pitchers were taken this high last year. Cole, Verlander, deGrom, and Sale.
Pitchers like Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Carrasco who were in the top rounds selections last year have dropped precipitously.

(Just getting off track here. In real baseball, the Pirates, Rays, and Astros teams are lauded for changing pitchers into being better pitchers. The press is always telling us that these organizations do a great job with pitching.
For fantasy baseball, is there a better source of starting pitching than the Cleveland Indians?
The last few years, Kluber and Carrasco have been consistent Starters for fantasy squads.
Their fade has now been replaced by Clevinger and Bieber. Not to mention that they put Trevor Bauer on the fantasy landscape.)

I said before that there is something wrong with each pitcher. Some have a lot of baggage. Some have hardly any all, but it's still baggage.
Jake deGrom has the least. His only problem is the team for which he pitches.
Elsewhere, deGrom would have been a 20 Win pitcher. Not with the Mets.
But as far as finding negatives, deGrom is the 'Cleanest' of all pitchers.
We don't know where Cole will land. His recency bias puts him through the roof in drafts.
Verlander is old.
Scherzer is old and has started his breakdown.
Walker Buehler pitched almost 200 innings last year including the playoffs. Too much on a young arm?
Clevinger has health problems with a herky jerky delivery.
Bieber, believe it or not, is almost a full year younger than Buehler. Yet, he has thrown almost 600 professional innings over the last three years.
Early wear and tear?
Flaherty was horrible the first part of last season. Wonderful over the second half.
Will the real Jack Flaherty, please stand up?
Strasburg has had durability issues until the last two years leading into a new contract.
Does he fall back into those issues again, with a new and bloated contract?
Chris Sale is an enigma of a question within a question mark....

I have had six drafts. In those drafts, the focus has been on pitching and how to approach it.
I've started drafts with pitchers in three of the first four rounds.
I've started with the usual hitter/pitcher ratio.
I've started drafting all offense.
So far, I haven't found my comfort level.
I may never.
I do know that it is not about the WHERE, as much as it is about the WHO.
If finding two or three pitchers that have justify solid faith and can carry through on that faith during the year, a drafter will have a leg up on their leagues.
Like last year, I believe that more than half of these pitchers in the top 10 now, will NOT be in the top 10 of next years drafts.
Man, I love this game..

[Thurman15]

Agreed that half of that top 10 list will not be in next year's top 10. My thought is Verlander, Scherzer, Strasburg (ouch), and Sale will not be there. And by being hurt for a good amount of time, one of the others will not be either. (no idea who, just a probable occurrence) So my prediction would be 5 of 10. All drafters SHOULD be scared of pitchers. They go on the DL without warning. Even go to Tommy John without warning. It is much safer to draft hitters, but gee, we MUST have good pitching. We can't possibly be in the money if our pitching is mediocre.

Take the top 10 hitters and my guess would be 8 of the 10 repeat. Much easier to predict. Not EASY, but certainly EASIER. But if we all knew everything for both hitters and pitchers, we might all be tied for first....or maybe that would be last.

[Edwards Kings]

Yes, recency bias is a bitch. That is why we are so vulnerable. We expect the good ones to be as good or better. Some are steadier than others, but even then the fall must happen. But the "hot" rookies rarely repeat. They may rise again, but sophomore years certainly increase the risk.

I picked up something on Strasburg last year (just about the only thing I got right). It went against his recent production. But it worked. In short, especially on pitchers, I never have been much of an advocate of pitchers too early (never an absolute rule).

[DOUGHBOYS]

Over the weekend, Madison Bumgarner was signed by Arizona and Corey Kluber was traded by Cleveland.
I love this off season!
I told anybody that would listen that an American League team would have to blow Bumgarner out of the water with a bid to have them considered.
Bum loves the NL style of play. Especially, getting to hit.
With half the teams eliminated for his services and a lot of teams in the NL not making huge bids for Bum, he 'settled' with Arizona.
'Settled' because he probably could have made a lot more money other places.
Bum is his own man and he was going to do what makes him happy.
In terms of fantasy baseball, Bum takes a very small hit. No matter where he was traded, the ball park factor would not be as good as where Bum was before. In effect, he takes Zack Greinke's role in Arizona. He'll be there Ace, while in fantasy, he'll be a number two or three pitcher on most rosters.

The Indians have been trying to dump Kluber, seemingly, forever.
Now was the time before he got hurt again.
The return was small in DeShields and Clase, but the real return was wiggle room.
Now, they can listen to offers on Brad Hand and Francisco Lindor without feeling they are forced to deal one or both players.
The Rangers have a staff of oldsters. Minor, Lynn, Kluber, and Gibson.
The Rangers are opening a new park with a retractable roof. This probably means that the ball park effect will be more amenable to pitching for the older staff.
One thing guaranteed, is that they will be pitching in more comfort under a roof than blistering 105 degree days.
For fantasy, Kluber remains what he is. A risk\reward pitcher that is still taken highly in drafts.
Minor and Lynn have resurrected their careers in Texas. Those drafting Kluber will be looking for the same.

[Edwards Kings]

Kluber went from speculative (not so much health unless someone can prove to me he is more likely to break his arm again than other pitchers) as to whether or not Kluber can re-establish his fast ball and regain the spin rate on his slider to "I will not draft" (or, as Dan mentions, will not draft in the rounds where he is/will be taken).

MadBum is tougher. Leaving home where he has had so much success could be a factor, but unless he can curb his fly ball rate (going from dying in leather in SF to over the wall in the desert), he has to take a fantasy hit. This is better for Arizona than for MadBum.

Still not sure Wheeler is worth that much more than MadBum....

[DOUGHBOYS]

MadBum IS tough.
Did he pitch to fly ball contact, knowing he was in the perfect park to do that?
Or, is he just an extreme fly ball pitcher prone to give up hard contact on those fly balls?
We could go to the question....
If your life was on the line, who would you want on the mound, MadBum or Wheeler?
I'm guessing that most folks would answer MadBum.
BUT, real baseball and fantasy baseball doesn't ask that question.
In real baseball, it is who will be better over the next five years for my team.
The Phillies think that Wheeler fits better for them. Their GM has mentioned that Wheeler is a power pitcher who has a lot more left in the tank.
He also feels that their staff can mold him to be a better pitcher.
The Diamondbacks love MadBum because like Wheeler, he is familiar with the division.
He also comes with a 'warrior' mentality that is playoff proven.
The lean for the Phillies is velocity and analytics.
The lean for the Diamondbacks is character and winning mentality.

(A little bit of a laugh on analytics here...Wheeler cost the Phillies 33 million dollars more than the Diamondbacks and Bum.
Analytics drove his price through the roof.
MadBum does not have analytics on his side.
ANALYTICS IS EXPENSIVE!
It'll be interesting to see who when the fight between Wheeler's analytics or MadBum's grit over the next five years.)


For fantasy baseball, it's fun.
We dismiss what the GM from the Phillies saying that they can mold Wheeler.
Seriously, what pitcher has been 'molded' successfully from another team by the Phillies during the last five years?
It's GM speak.
In my mind, Wheeler is a "Is what he is" pitcher.
Sure, he can have a breakout year. He has that in him and it is what the Phillies are looking for.
But if thinking they can mold him to be an upper tier pitcher, yeah, good luck with that.
In fantasy, Wheeler stays around the same area of the eighth through 10th round.
Madbum? Tougher.
He leaves the best park that a Major League pitcher can throw in.
His pitching style may change.
Sometimes, that works out for the best, sometimes not.
While Wheeler is a "Is what he is" pitcher, MadBum may be the opposite.
He may have to turn himself into something that nobody has ever called the lefty......Crafty.
Bumgarner has been going a round or two ahead of Wheeler in most drafts.
Even with the harsher ball park effect, I expect that to continue.
Mostly, because Bum has something that analytics cannot quantify. The 'It' factor.
And we're back to picking MadBum for the game with our lives on the line.
For fantasy baseball, we feel like our fantasy lives are on the line each time our pitcher throws.
I think the answer would be the same when choosing between the two.

[Edwards Kings]

Interesting points. But I feel I can place a cocktail napkin over their skill set, analytically speaking. Wheeler has a big fastball that he leans on but his K-rate is only incrementally more than MadBum. Both have shown great control. I do not know...it seems to me that MadBum is viewed as "older" than Wheeler and paid the price.