Tiers and Other Stupid Stuff

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12800
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Tiers and Other Stupid Stuff

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:17 am

James Anderson is a writer for another site. I believe he has entered some NFBC contests, but as with a lot of scribes, I hardly ever see his name is the winners circle.
But that's neither here nor there.
I bring up his name because of an article he wrote.
Actually, it wasn't the article as a whole that lead me to write this, just a small part of the article.
In it, he lists the top 400 players for the upcoming season.
All good.
But before unveiling his top 400, he says this.....

The top-12 is a clear top tier. I think you can be happy with your roster construction selecting any of those players in the first round, but I'm much less enthusiastic about starting my team with anyone outside that group of 12.

Seriously?

Look, I know when we make lists that there seems to be a cliff, especially positionally.
I get that.
But here, we are looking at EVERY baseball player and this fella is more acceptable of only his top 12.
Oh boy.

Here is his top 12

1 Ronald Acuna OF
2 Fernando Tatis SS
3 Trea Turner SS
4 Juan Soto........OF
5 Mookie Betts OF
6 Mike Trout OF
7 Jose Ramirez 3B
8 Trevor Story SS
9 Christian Yelich OF
10 Shane Bieber SP
11 Jacob deGrom SP
12 Gerrit Cole SP

Fine. We get it. The usual players.
He wants power/speed or a power arm.
All good.
But really, is the drop off for a player like Christian Yelich to a player 13th on his list, Freddy Freeman, a free-for-all?
Hell, ask any drafter this year who they'd want to start their team and Freeman would be unanimous.
Bluntly, this is pre-season bullshit.

Tiers are in our minds, just like listing players.
Each player we list, in our minds, is better than the next name written after it.
THAT is our mind. It NEVER turns out that way! NEVER!!
BUT, in our mind, before the season, we convince ourselves that it will.
We believe that we're right and we believe there are tiers.
Even though we KNOW deep down inside that it is just a drafting 'thing'.

Freddy Freeman was better than Yelich last year. He may be again next year. We don't know that.
James Anderson doesn't know either.
This writer has written himself into a proverbial corner by wanting power/speed combo in the first round.
It's something that a fellow just starting out in fantasy baseball might do.
What does he do if he gets pick 13-15? Raise the white flag?

Many players, after those first 12 are capable of power/speed numbers. Many.
Albies, Bichette, Bellinger, Bregman, Bogaerts and others seem like less capable players than those in the top 12, but each can be one of those players in a given year.
Most NFBC players know the traps.
They would not fall into this one.
If the experts are the teachers and NFBC players are the students, the students have become the masters.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12800
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Tiers and Other Stupid Stuff

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:30 am

I was asked why tiers are stupid.
Well, they kind of are and they kind of aren't.
Tiers are in our own minds.
For instance, this writer that I talked about thinks there is a tier of 12 players, then a chasm.
He built this in his own mind.
Why?
Because he is set on either having power arms or power/speed combos from hitters.
This is stupid.
He is so dead set on these things that he forgets that a great season from a four category trumps a bad or average season from a five category player.
Not all of those 12 top players are going to have wonderful years.
In his mind, they will.
Yelich could flop again.
In five years, Fernando Tatis Jr. has played more than 100 games.
Freddie Freeman is a solid player not in the top 12.
If wanting five category goodness, why does Yelich get a pass for his bad year while Cody Bellinger is no longer in the top 12.
It's stupid. Rookie stupid.

When we do our lists of players at each position, we all believe there is a chasm within that position.
Jose Ramirez will be the first 3B selected in all drafts.
It's fair to say that he is in a tier to himself.
It was the same for Mike Trout and OF for a few years.
This is fair.
In our minds, it is tough to comprehend other players having a better year than somebody who dominates a position.
Not stupid.
I hope I answered the question.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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