The Undoing of My List

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12800
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

The Undoing of My List

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:56 pm

This is the time of year when we think about lists, write lists, type lists, change lists in our minds or on paper.
Usually, these list are about performance.
We believe that the player above the next player offers more.
We make these lists with the five categories of pitchers and offensive players in mind.
Best at the top till we get to the worst at the bottom.
We don't follow these lists verbatim. They are just a guide.

I started making my lists this year and stopped. One name and I stopped. In the past, I couldn't wait to see how smart I was in making lists.
We all feel smart when making lists. These lists are personal.
And if we brag a little, our lists are better than most others.
I stopped. One name.

Let me show you....

I started making my list of Catchers. I always start with Catcher. I don't know why. Probably because it seems easier than most positions.
So, like everybody else, I write down JT Realmuto. I stared at JT Realmuto. JT Realmuto?
I believe that 999 of 1,000 believe that JT Realmuto SHOULD be the number one Catcher.
Is he?
We have more to consider than Realmuto just being the best Catcher.
Since he is regarded as the best Catcher by almost all of us, he is pricey.
ADP has Realmuto going in the third round.
I like Realmuto less now. A LOT less.
Realmuto has also ended the last two seasons with injury.
Hard injuries that tend to linger in Catcher's later years. Realmuto will be 30 in 2021.
Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Jason Kendall and Yadier Molina were great athletic Catchers.
Each, never the same, offensively, after ago 30.
I don't know if these things will conspire to make Realmuto not as good as before, but it gives me pause.
In fantasy baseball, if something gives us pause, it eats away at the one thing we love in our relationship with players drafted. Trust.
I could do what I've done in the past and just scratch off Realmuto's name after another drafter selects him. Boring.

1 J.T. Realmuto
2 Salvador Perez
3 Will Smith
4 Willson Contreras
5 Yasmani Grandal
6 Travis d'Arnaud
7 Christian Vazquez
8 Austin Nola
9 Sean Murphy
10 Gary Sanchez

These are the top 10 Catchers according to ADP.
Now, besides the problems listed with Realmuto above, there is the 'knee jerk' drafting thing.
For some reason, we give Realmuto his status.
Has he earned it?
Let's see...

This past year...

Realmuto...266/33/11/32/4
Perez........333/22/11/32/1

Pretty close. What about the last five years....

Realmuto...281/327/85/302/36
Perez........258/240/108/326/3

Just looking at those numbers, some things come to mind.
It looks like Realmuto dominates batting average. The problem being that the average is buoyed by hitting .303 five years ago.
Since then, .278, .277, .275, .266
We can say that's consistent or we can say it's falling. Your pleasure.
Realmuto is more athletic and is clearly the better base runner.
We can expect Realmuto to score more runs than Perez, no matter the lineup he ends up in.
Homers and RBI are more Perez thing than Realmuto.
The 36 stolen bases are skewed a bit by Realmuto having 12 five years ago.
We can expect a handful over a full season.
A friend of mine said what about age?
Realmuto is a lot younger than Perez. Right?
Wrong.
He really isn't. He has just been around longer. Perez is just 10 months older than Realmuto.
But I'm off track, this isn't a Realmuto vs. Perez post.

I don't trust Realmuto with my third round pick. And if he dropped to the fourth round, not there either. Fifth? Maybe.
To me, he is NOT a clear number one Catcher. I believe that Perez will offer similar numbers as listed above at a better price.
But again, this isn't about Realmuto vs. Perez.
I also believe that Will Smith has the chops to come close to Realmuto...
And Contreras, and Grandal, and d'Arnaud, and Vazquez, and Nola, and Murphy.
Not in straight comparisons in categories as listed above with Realmuto and Perez, but in relationships to their ADP.
I cannot see Realmuto being 9 rounds better than Christian Vazquez. Just no way.
Let's put it this way... would you rather have Tim Anderson and Christian Vazquez or would you rather have Ian Happ and JT Realmuto?
Anderson is next to Realmuto in ADP, Happ next to Vazquez.

I want bargains when drafting. Realmuto owners are paying through the nose. We try to avoid overpaying in drafts.
Realmuto is a top of the line Volkswagen at Mercedes-Benz prices.
I can't put him at the top of my list.
What I have to do is reconfigure the way I do lists.
I'll work on that.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Thurman15
Posts: 115
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:27 pm

Re: The Undoing of My List

Post by Thurman15 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:39 pm

Well, this goes back to our previous discussion Dan. I agree with your analysis. So I don't bother putting Realmuto on my list at all. Because to me, he is a 6th round pick and obviously he will be long gone before I'd pick him. I just wait and grab a Nola or a Sean Murphy much later and get 80% of Realmuto's stats anyway.

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12800
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: The Undoing of My List

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:20 am

Thurman15 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:39 pm
Well, this goes back to our previous discussion Dan. I agree with your analysis. So I don't bother putting Realmuto on my list at all. Because to me, he is a 6th round pick and obviously he will be long gone before I'd pick him. I just wait and grab a Nola or a Sean Murphy much later and get 80% of Realmuto's stats anyway.
I'm not the type that can leave a player off of a list. He exists. Therefore, he has to be a part of the list.
Not only that, but he has to be first on the list because he is the best catching option.
I think I've come up with something that will help me.
Lets put those 10 Catchers back up.....

1 J.T. Realmuto
2 Salvador Perez
3 Will Smith
4 Willson Contreras
5 Yasmani Grandal
6 Travis d'Arnaud
7 Christian Vazquez
8 Austin Nola
9 Sean Murphy
10 Gary Sanchez

Remember, this is not my list of Catchers, it comes from ADP.

Now, instead of listing just the names, let's also include a number after their names.
This number indicates what round you would be looking for in this player.
In my case, I would not be interested in Realmuto till round five. Perez, round seven, etc.
So now, the list looks like this...

1 J.T. Realmuto 5
2 Salvador Perez 7
3 Will Smith 9
4 Willson Contreras 9
5 Yasmani Grandal 10
6 Travis d'Arnaud 12
7 Christian Vazquez 13
8 Austin Nola 13
9 Sean Murphy 13
10 Gary Sanchez (where is my infinity sign?)

I think this may help me.
And maybe after the draft, I can pat myself on the back for the rounds saved in some cases.
Hope this may help some drafters in the same boat as I.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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