He's A Superstar

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DOUGHBOYS
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He's A Superstar

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:17 pm

I don't listen to podcasts much. Mostly, I find them boring. It's not the folks that do it at fault. It is just tough to hold my interest in any format with any talkers over a stretch of time. Most revert to telling personal stories or go on forever when making a point. Obvious in that they are at the ready to back their point with many stats.
All that being said, they all have one thing in common....along with broadcasters....along with MLB Channel personnel.
And it is this....THEY NEVER WANT TO CRITICIZE A SUPERSTAR. EVER. PERIOD.
I don't hold any current player in so high of regard that he can't be criticized.
I have been both wrong and right in criticizing Joey Votto.
Done the same with Bryce Harper.
If they're criticized, who cares. The superstar doesn't care. His team doesn't care. But man, these guys will not do it.
So...Let's do it.... :D

Juan Soto has sucked.
Folks make excuses for him.
He plays on a crappy team.
He has nobody behind him.
Nobody in front of him.
Pitchers aren't giving him anything to hit.
Blah Blah and Blah.

All these things may be true. All of them. But....WHO CARES?
If you're a SUPERSTAR....you're a SUPERSTAR, right?
Nothing should stop a Superstar hitter from hitting.
But Soto isn't hitting.
His stats are close to Anthony Santander.
Soto........226/46/15/33/5
Santander 233/34/15/40/0

Santander was the 77th outfielder selected in ADP by NFBC drafters. Soto, outfielder number one.
Jayson Stark and others compared Soto to Ted Williams before the season.
Scribes and broadcasters talked about his age and said that he would only get better.....Uh huh.
The thing about Soto and Williams is a little amusing to me.
First, it is always unfair to compare any modern day player, especially one who is at the start of his career like Soto, to a player who has finished his career and put up otherworldly numbers.
That never stops writers though.
Actually, Williams and Soto are comparable right now in that they both play or played on crappy teams.
Soto put up his best numbers when his team wasn't so crappy.
Williams endured lots of years of pitchers avoiding him.
He became a master of selecting the best pitches that a pitcher would offer him.
Soto, clearly, hasn't mastered that art.

So here is the question I posed to friends today.
As of right now, who would you have ahead on your draft lists, Juan Soto or Julio Rodriguez?
I love the question.
Julio Rodriguez is doing great things. He's running. He's now hitting for power. He's hitting for average.
Soto, given his first round status especially, has sucked.
The question illustrates how tough and just how fluid our game is.
The question would have been preposterous even just two months ago.
Now?
Not so much.
(Five responders said their lean would be Rodriguez, three for Soto)

Soto has been given many excuses by, well, just about everybody.
The fact is....he has sucked.
He is hitting like a 77th outfielder.
Even if the trend continues till the end of the year, he will still be taken in the first round of most drafts next year.
Why?
Because he will be.
We know what he can do.
It's why he is not criticized. We all know what he CAN do. He's just not doing it this year.
And those that select him in the first round next year will not be thinking about this year.
They won't be thinking that in five years, he has never hit 35 homers or stolen15 bases.
They won't be thinking that he's reached 100 RBI once.
They'll be thinking the same thing that broadcasters, writers, and announcers say.
He's a Superstar.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:25 am

Speaking of Superstars.....
It's halfway through the season. You know what that means. Yep, it's time to think about next year... :D
Let's make a list of next years first round players.
This won't be a list of players that I believe will be in the first round.
This will be a list of who I believe others will put in the first round.
Maybe later, I'll put who I believe should be here.
You know the players so I won't give stats to back these picks up. Just a one or two line reasoning.

1. Trea Turner...He's done nothing to take him away from being a number one pick.

2. Fernando Tatis Jr....I would punish him more for not being a better Hells Angel. But, we forgive easily.

3. Corbin Burnes...The guy has been great.

4. Jose Ramirez...He has nobody around him but flourishes. The anti-Juan Soto.

5. Julio Rodriguez...We love our young studs. This guy is a young stud.

6. Ronald Acuna Jr....He's back. Not number one overall back. But he's back.

7. Sandy Alcantara...He's been fantastic. If pitching for a NY team, he'd be number one.

8. Shane McClanahan...Read the above...

9. Aaron Judge...Only lingering health concerns prevent him from being higher.

10. Shohei Ohtani...If being able to both pitch and hit him during the same week as the Angels use him, he'd be higher.

11. Bryce Harper...Bad break, literally, for him. He was a stud before the owwie.

12. Gerrit Cole...Still a first round Starter.

13. Josh Hader...I know, I know. A Closer in the first round? Sacrilegious! But, here we are.

14. Juan Soto...I would punish him further. But his drafters will not.

15. Luis Robert...Still enticing...And like others believe, I don't think we've seen his best year yet.

Of course there will be disagreements with this list. It's the nature of the beast.
Any of the following players can also be selected in the first round and probably will at times....

Max Scherzer
Jake deGrom
Manny Machado
Rafael Devers
Yordan Alvarez
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Bo Bichette
Freddie Freeman
Paul Goldschmidt
Pete Alonso
Liam Hendricks
Kyle Tucker
Brandon Woodruff
Mookie Betts
Tony Gonsolin
Mike Trout
Ozzie Albies

That's another 17 players. Hard to believe that two players mentioned will go in the third round.
Well, I'm ready for the Pre-Mature draft!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Edwards Kings
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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by Edwards Kings » Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:10 pm

Dan, How far up would you put Spencer "Porn Star" Strider? Twelve K's tonight....

Image
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:39 pm

Great timing, Wayne!
In the first inning of the St. Louis vs. Atlanta's game, I sent out a text to a few NFBC fellas....

"It sure will be interesting to see....

1. How the Braves handle Strider's workload over the second half

2. Where Strider goes in 2023 drafts."

I never got an answer.

If Strider's year goes like the first half, I believe he would be a possible third, fourth round pick.
But, I don't think it will.
Atlanta has to rein his innings in.
I can see him as a 'Loose Cannon' for the Braves as they near the end of the season and go into the playoffs.
He could be used in high leverage situations in any way they see fit.
A helluva weapon.
If used in this way over the last couple of months, he won't stray too far from drafters eyes.
He'll be that same 'Loose Cannon' for drafters when draft season begins.
I believe he'll be one of those pitchers that soars higher and higher as the draft season gets closer and closer.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Edwards Kings
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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by Edwards Kings » Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:44 am

You are, as you most always are, correct. The (rag, fish wrap) Atlanta Journal-Constitiution was also this AM posting the conundrum as Strider, with his 100 pitch effort last night, has reached about 2/3rds of his prior year usage. Obviously, the ASB will allow the Braves to set their starter schedule to give him at least a one turn break. After that, the back end of the schedule is pretty much dominated by inter-division play. Late, the Braves have two series with Philly (I do not feel Philadelphia will fade, but who knows) and one with the Mets. Between now and August 18th, three Mets series (includind one double header) and on Philly. After the ASB, not that many days off. So as far as long stretches with less than 0.500 teams goes, the Braves are leaving the cotton candy part of the schedule behind.

Two familiar names, Kyle Muller and Tucker Davidson have pitched well in AAA this year, so there are some options if they do rest Snyder. Bryce Elder is also pitching pretty well, but I see the Braves using him as bullpen long relief. Huascar Ynoa has shown some life, but so much the zip code of home plate is still a bit elusive. Mike Soroka, if he can regain the majic after so much off time, has not started his 30-Day minor league rehab assignment yet, so he is running out of time to have any measurable impact but he could spot start in September certainly.

Bottom line is the Braves have options if they want to give Strider a few missed starts.

On Strider, he is right now living on two pitches. His ability to place is 98+ heater up/down, in/out sets up a nice mid-80's slider. He can make in on those two pitches, but note that recently, his K's have come in bunches the first time through the line-up. On the heat, I watched him and while his follow through is a bit dramatic, the motion and release is what I would call "easy". Doesn't seem to have to muscle up much to hit 100. I am prejudiced of course, so not the best judge of where he will go next year. But lets say he gets another eight or so starts. That would probable put him in the 110 to 120 IP range for the year. For 2023 it wouldn't be a stretch to have him in the 150 to 165 IP range of a fifth starter. But so much K potential. In the most willy-nilly of all predictions, I would have him as being the fourth Brave pitcher taken (after Fried, Wright, and Jansen and assuming Charlie Morton is pitching elsewhere next year as the Braves need the salary to sign Dansby) and somewhere in the eighth round area.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Jul 13, 2022 2:27 pm

Since first writing about Soto, he has gone 10-20 with three homers, seven RBI and seven Runs.
Sure, it's not enough for his owners.
His owners believe he should be hitting 100 points higher than his .245 batting average.
But, it's a start.

Soto is too good to be hitting .220 or .245. or even .275.
He's a darned good hitter.
The fact that I called him out isn't wrong. He was sucking. Players like Soto shouldn't suck.
And the world didn't end because I called him out on his suckiness. :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Thurman15
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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by Thurman15 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:44 pm

Hi Dan. After a long hospital stay and 2 weeks on a ventilator (not Covid) I'm finally back into Baseball. Today I decided to see what up with your posts. You can't make this up as you covered 2 subjects I wanted to bring up. As the not so proud owner of Juan Soto in numerous pools, I'm tearing my hair out. He is horrible. ( last night aside ) He wants 400 to 500 million on his next contract. Really ? For what ?? His .239 batting average ?? His 58 RBI ?? his 6 steals ?? Granted his on base numbers are still fantastic but if you are a superstar you need to do more than take walks. We all know he is better than he is showing but the bottom line is he is hurting his real team not to mention 5,000 fantasy baseball teams. He should be embarrassed . Sure I will still draft him next year but sure as hell not first overall. Which brings me to my other discovery. You posted a potential 1st round for next year. Now that more of the season has passed I will give it a try. But next year will be the wildest scramble where 30 players could go in the 1st round and someone's 7th overall pick might be ranked 3rd round by others. At least 10 players could go 1st overall. Including Juan Soto. So here goes. Again....it won't likely be anywhere close to this but.....

1 Trea Turner
2 Julio Rodriguez
3 Aaron Judge
4 Mookie Betts
5 Jose Ramirez (not by me though )
6 Vladdy Guerrero
7 Kyle Tucker
8 Juan Soto
9 Rafael Devers
10 Freddie Freeman
11 Yordan Alvarez
12 Shohei Ohtani ( not me )
13 Manny Machado
14 Shane McLanahan
15 Corbin Burnes

At any rate I'm just glad to be reading and responding to posts. Go Yankees. All Rise.
Rogers Hornsby, Hall of Famer with the Cardinals was once asked " You love Baseball Rogers, but what do you do in the winter ? " His response......"I stare out the window and wait for spring "

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:43 pm

Sorry to hear about your health bout, Al.
At the same time, happy it is in your rear view. We have a tendency to take good health for granted. Then it bites us in the ass.

I like your list. I believe Vlad may be going a little lower as a penalty for not having a proper follow-up to last year. I also believe Shohei will be going higher. He is such a tough own with our rules. But even as a hitter or pitcher exclusively, he gives top of the first round numbers.
But I'm picking nits.

You're right. The top 30 players will switch around at every draft.
Who is the best fantasy pitcher next year? We can't answer that. There is something wrong with every top pitcher.
Cole has inconsistencies. Burnes has allowed more than three times as many homers this year. Shohei gets less Starts. Can we count on deGrom health?
McClanahan has tired. Can Cease do the same thing next year? Is Strider starting to feel the innings? Verlander and Max have to age sometime, right?
Pitching is going to be oh-so-tough.

I can't wait for the drafting season!

Thanks for the note, Al.
And again, glad you're back and up to snuff!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13070
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: He's A Superstar

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:31 pm

Oops...
Last edited by DOUGHBOYS on Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: He's A Superstar

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:36 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:31 pm
It was said that Albert Pujols had a batting practice pitcher throw him some pitches off the plate outside and also inside on him.
When questioned why by some players, he told them that there would be some situations where pitchers would try to avoid him and get to the next hitter in the lineup. He wanted to be ready to hit that pitch.
In effect, Pujols was practicing hitting 'the pitcher's pitch'.
Juan Soto should take notice. Most of his walks come because of an avoidance issue by the pitcher....And it works a lot.
Soto has a .361 WHIR.
His teammate, Jake Cronenworth has scored as many Runs (84) as Soto. Cronenworth has a .435 WHIR.
Analytics will, of course trumpet OBP (Soto- .402...Cronenworth- .335 )
Sometimes, OBP can be an incredibly empty statistic.


If Soto goes in the top five this year, it won't be a pick of mine that made it so.
For a first rounder, he just has too many at bats that result in...nothing.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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