What We Don't Know

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

What We Don't Know

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:36 am

So here I am in a one hour Draft Championship and in the 16th round trying to determine what would be the next pick.
I check all the category boxes.
Check.
I check Pitchers.
Check.
I check positionality among offensive players check.
And then it occurs to me.
It occurs to me that I don't know shit.
Check.

It wasn't me being critical of myself or team. It's the process.
Let me explain...
I strongly dislike (hate) projections.
Projections are strictly entertainment.
One day I see that Gavin Lux is a 20-20 projection. The next, 0-0.
It's not the projector's fault. He just doesn't know shit. None of us do.

Each of us draft our team as if it will be pristine.
7 Starters
2 Closers
2 Catchers
3 corners
3 middles
5 outfielders
1 Utility
Bingo! We're set to go.

We carefully analyze our needs for power and speed, for K's and ratio's.
We do it every year.
We have a plan.
And like Mike Tyson said, 'We all have a plan until we get punched in the face'.
Drafting season is a plan. Players playing is the punch in the face.

A guy on radio was touting what great years Tatis, Buxton, and Luis Robert were going to have this year.
That is strictly entertainment. Drafters know the consequences of injury.
Radio guys or podcasters can care less about health.
They like to hear themselves talk about talents of players on the field.
Even though some players best talent is NOT being on the field at all. But that wouldn't be entertaining to talk about, would it.
The truth is these fellas don't know shit.

What we do is take the punch in the face into account while drafting.
If we were drafting solely on the basis of talent and 162 games guaranteed, Tatis, Buxton and Robert may all be first rounders.
But we know better than that. It is as much on our mind as their talents.
Still, we'll get injuries like Lux that come out of the blue.
Reminding us that we don't know shit.
We persevere. We have to. We know we don't know shit, but carry on.

So, I am in the 16th round of this draft and want to do something bold (before the McCullers injury) and take Hunter Brown.
Nobody says anything bad about Hunter Brown.
Every year there is a club of players that nobody says anything bad about.
Hunter Brown
Grayson Rodriguez
Corbin Carroll
Julio Rodriguez

The list goes on.
Nobody says anything bad about these players because they have yet to fail.
They will. All players fail at one time or another. But we haven't seen these players fail.
So we give them helium. And they rise in drafts.
Some of those players will punch us in the face.
Which ones? We don't know Why?
Because we don't know shit....
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Quahogs
Posts: 2399
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

Re: What We Don't Know

Post by Quahogs » Fri Mar 03, 2023 6:35 am

always loved that Tyson quote Doughie, very apropos for many things in life!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: What We Don't Know

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:54 am

Quahogs wrote:
Fri Mar 03, 2023 6:35 am
always loved that Tyson quote Doughie, very apropos for many things in life!
It sure is, Steve!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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