Early Draft Season Thoughts

[DOUGHBOYS]

From a baseball and fantasy side, there is no doubt that Smyly has the goods.
My fear is that his arm will have to be stretched out again and that the result could lead to 'dead arm' or worse case scenario, Tommy John.
If the Tigers made a mistake with Smyly, it is not letting him be the long reliever or swing guy or spot starter last year. Not totally their fault because they are a 'Win Now' team, but it could come back to bite them in the ass.

[Money]

Greg,

With the die hards drafting already can you give us a sneak at the ADP for Fister and Porcello? They have to be 15 rounds apart at least.

Probably not. I have done two drafts so far, and the results are quite different but probably not what you'd expect. In Dan's 50-round e-mail draft, they went as follows:

Fister: 13th round
Porcello: 23rd round
Smyly: 31st round

In DC #1, which finished yesterday, they went as follows:

Fister: 16th round
Porcello: 20th round
Smyly: 12th round

(Now that I have been touting Fister in arguing that the Tigers got hosed, I feel like a hypocrite for not abandoning my drafting strategy in DC #1 and grabbing Fister in or before the 15th round! My only defense is I already had 4 SPs and some SPs seemed to go off the board later than expected because RPs were going hot and heavy!)

Remarkable variation in the Smyly picks. Perhaps the 31st round was too late, although I think the 12th round was too early. The kid looks like he has really good stuff, but can he excel as a starter for an entire season?

Mike

Nice info, Thanks. Last year Fisters ADP was 141. I think he'll settle in around 125 this year. I would be a buyer anytime after 125 if we were drafting today.

[DOUGHBOYS]

He goes from Iglesias and Kinsler up the middle to Desmond and Rendon. Fister is a defensive dependent pitcher.
He got off to a hot start last year, going 4-0 with a 2.38
He didn't match those figures again for the rest of the year.
But, he came closest in September when Iglesias was playing shortstop.
I give him a possible bump going to the NL, but it is really slight.
I would not take him in the first eight rounds. Which makes him an after 120 adp pick for me.

[ToddZ]

Are you factoring in Post season numbers Todd? Guys who produce in October do not grow on tree's.

Porcello = Fister? Come on.


I'm not much of a numerish guy, but I do like the information you put out.

Not factoring in post season - sample far to small to glean anything.

Outcomes were different, but the skills are remarkably close -- some may argue Porcello's are better. I'll call it a wash

K/9
Fister 6.9
Porcello 7.2

BB/9
Fister 1.9
Porcello 2.1

HR/9
Fister .60
Porcello .92

GB%
Fister 54
Porcello 55

FIP
Fister 3.26
Porcello 3.53

xFIP
Fister 3.42
Porcello 3.19

[Money]

Are you factoring in Post season numbers Todd? Guys who produce in October do not grow on tree's.

Porcello = Fister? Come on.


I'm not much of a numerish guy, but I do like the information you put out.

Not factoring in post season - sample far to small to glean anything.

Outcomes were different, but the skills are remarkably close -- some may argue Porcello's are better. I'll call it a wash

K/9
Fister 6.9
Porcello 7.2

BB/9
Fister 1.9
Porcello 2.1

HR/9
Fister .60
Porcello .92

GB%
Fister 54
Porcello 55

FIP
Fister 3.26
Porcello 3.53

xFIP
Fister 3.42
Porcello 3.19

Fister has pitched 48 post season innings with a 2.98 ERA. Thats a big enough sample size for me.

The current Masterball rankings on these two players are 93 pitchers apart. I am a subscriber, how do you reconcile that disparity with your argument between these two players here?

[Bronx Yankees]

Are you factoring in Post season numbers Todd? Guys who produce in October do not grow on tree's.

Porcello = Fister? Come on.


I'm not much of a numerish guy, but I do like the information you put out.

Not factoring in post season - sample far to small to glean anything.

Outcomes were different, but the skills are remarkably close -- some may argue Porcello's are better. I'll call it a wash

K/9
Fister 6.9
Porcello 7.2

BB/9
Fister 1.9
Porcello 2.1

HR/9
Fister .60
Porcello .92

GB%
Fister 54
Porcello 55

FIP
Fister 3.26
Porcello 3.53

xFIP
Fister 3.42
Porcello 3.19

I love this. Baseball debates in December!

Todd, I agree that if you only look at 2013, Porcello's performance during the regular season was at least comparable to Fister. I think, however, if you expand the comparison by a few years, the differences become more apparent. For instance:

FIP
Fister 2011 - 3.02
Fister 2012 - 3.42
Fister 2013 - 3.26

Porcello 2011 - 4.06
Porcello 2012 - 3.91
Porcello 2013 - 3.53

xFIP
Fister 2011 - 3.61
Fister 2012 - 3.39
Fister 2013 - 3.42

Porcello 2011 - 4.02
Porcello 2012 - 3.89
Porcello 2013 - 3.19

Porcello showed real improvement last year. I guess the question is whether that improvement is sustainable. For instance, above you show that Porcello had a slightly-better K/9 than Fister in 2013. However, if you go back five seasons, Porcello's K/9 ratios are as follows (he pitched at least 160 innnings each year):

2013 - 7.22
2012 - 5.46
2011 - 5.14
2010 - 4.65
2009 - 4.69

Is the 2013 Porcello sustainable or a peak season for him? Damned if I know (you would know better, I'm sure). It is an interesting debate, and also raises the question of how much you include or exclude historic performance versus the prior season.

Going back to one of Dan's comments, if you put the numbers aside and go by the "eye test," I'd say Shields > Fister > Porcello. I'd also say Smyly > Porcello. Not sure if I'm ready to say Smyly > Fister - guess I have to see it first.

Mike

[ToddZ]

The current Masterball rankings on these two players are 93 pitchers apart. I am a subscriber, how do you reconcile that disparity with your argument between these two players here?

With Porcello, it's all about the HR rate. My present HR/9 is too high. Next run the HR/FB will be better adjusted and his ERA will be about 3.85 --- still higher than Fister, but closer.

The key is the numbers I showed were 2013 -- projections will use 3-year averages.

So you have to ask yourself will Porcello give back the gains he made in 2013 or will he stay level or improve? Projection theory will always give some back.

I think the gains are real - but am still giving some back in the numbers.

[ToddZ]

Is the 2013 Porcello sustainable or a peak season for him? Damned if I know (you would know better, I'm sure). It is an interesting debate, and also raises the question of how much you include or exclude historic performance versus the prior season.


Mike

We crossed in cyberspace -- I said basically the same thing

[DOUGHBOYS]

When it comes right down to it, whether Fister or Porcello is a better pitcher is of little consequence and all in the eyes of the beholder.
For the Tigers purposes, letting go of Fister's contract provides more forks in the roads for the future instead of one way streets.

[DOUGHBOYS]

This really is just an awesome hot stove this year.
It seems the deals are not only coming daily, but hourly.
Hanigan and Heath Bell to Tampa is hardly earth shattering, but still news.

It'll also be interesting to see Choice in Texas and Gentry in Oakland. Oakland seems like a better fit for Gentry. His running is more to the A's scrambling type of offense.
Choice could be nothing or something. Either way, Texas suits him better than Oakland.
A good deal for both teams.

If reports are true, Saltylablahblah signs with the Marlins. He could be a 3/4/5 hitter for them rising his draft place a bit.
Catchers for each team have almost all firmed up.
Arencibia may have lost at musical chairs.
He could get a call from the Rangers, Dodgers, or Rockies. But not to be an everyday guy.

[Bronx Yankees]

You're right. The trades are getting hot and heavy now. Seems like the hot stove season is much hotter much earlier this season compared to last. Not sure why, but it makes for a helluva December. Every time a trade is announced, I have to mentally check my two early DC rosters to see how they impact my teams. They just announced a trade with Seth Smith going to the Padres for Luke Gregerson. I got Luke on both of my teams. Like him a lot as a reliable set-up guy who has closer-like stuff that could come in handy during the inevitable Huston Street DL trip. He's going from one pitcher's park to another, so I don't think moving to the AL will impact his value much. Frankly, other than a deficit of experience, I'd probably use Jim Johnson to set-up Gregerson instead of the other way around, but I doubt that happens unless Johnson really falters. Poor Seth Smith. Going from Oakland to San Diego probably is not going to help his stats, and he can't DH any more (although someone in SD's outfield always seems to get hurt, whether it is Maybin or Quentin). Not sure I like this deal from San Diego's perspective, but there may be financial motivations; either that, or they think Smith will get plenty of ABs and they have enough young arms to replace Gregerson.

I wonder what trade(s) tomorrow will bring.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

The Reds are ready to peddle Phillips.
Toronto and Atlanta have a big gap at 2b.
If Atlanta trades for him, it makes for a helluva right side of the infield.
Nobody in baseball talks more than Phillips and I don't think anybody hugs more than Freddy Freeman.
That dugout should be lively.....

[Bronx Yankees]

Dexter Fowler to the Astros for ... not much IMO. Interesting move. Clearing some salary for Morneau? I have Fowler and Corey Dickerson on one of my early DC teams. I guess I can take a modest hit to Fowler's value if it means Dickerson has a seni-regular starting role (still a question mark).

Seems like we are averaging a trade/free agent signing every hour today. This is like a relief pitcher run when drafting! I think teams are getting afraid of missing out and speeding things up this week. What will tomorrow bring?

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Dexter Fowler to the Astros for ... not much IMO. Interesting move. Clearing some salary for Morneau? I have Fowler and Corey Dickerson on one of my early DC teams. I guess I can take a modest hit to Fowler's value if it means Dickerson has a seni-regular starting role (still a question mark).

Seems like we are averaging a trade/free agent signing every hour today. This is like a relief pitcher run when drafting! I think teams are getting afraid of missing out and speeding things up this week. What will tomorrow bring?

Mike

If signing a 1B, as they're trying to do, the Rockies only have one outfield spot for Blackmon/Barnes/Dickerson. It'd be tough rostering any of them unless really believing in one over the other. Except in September when CarGo does his magical disappearing act.
I talked to a Rockies scout last year and asked him who he liked better between Dickerson and Blackmon.
He said he loved Blackmon's football mentality and that he really loves the grind of baseball.
He said Dickerson knew more about baseball and was more of a complete baseball player, while Blackmon was the better athlete of the two.

I said, "So, you're not going to tell me, are you?
He said, "Not on your life".

[Bronx Yankees]

And now Ellsbury to the Yankees for BIG money. What a day in the hot stove world!

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Incredible really.
Easily more action than on any trade deadline day.
Something else.....

[Money]

Unbelievable day. Going to yankee stadium has to increase his value. I guess Gardner will slide down the order.

Come on Tigers it's time to pull the trigger on Choo!! Although I hate it when any news about a Detroit signing gets out, it usually means it isn't going to happen.

[DOUGHBOYS]

With this signing, Soriano can play about where an umpire would stand in a World Series game.
Left and center becomes Ellsbury's spot. Center and right, Gardner's.

Joe, I think the Tigers are on Choo.
If for some reason another team blows Choo away with an offer, it'd be very interesting to see if they would go after Granderson. He fits all their needs. Not as nicely as Choo, but still, a nice safety net.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I was a little disappointed that an hour elapsed since the Ellsbury signing with no other deal.
But then Lincoln for Kratz....

GM: How did Lincoln look last night?

Scout: It was if he were facing nine John Wilkes Booth's.

[KJ Duke]

With this signing, Soriano can play about where an umpire would stand in a World Series game.
Left and center becomes Ellsbury's spot. Center and right, Gardner's.

Joe, I think the Tigers are on Choo.
If for some reason another team blows Choo away with an offer, it'd be very interesting to see if they would go after Granderson. He fits all their needs. Not as nicely as Choo, but still, a nice safety net.

Where's Ichiro? Shouldn't Soriano be playing defense/cheerleader inside the dugout?

[DOUGHBOYS]

With this signing, Soriano can play about where an umpire would stand in a World Series game.
Left and center becomes Ellsbury's spot. Center and right, Gardner's.

Joe, I think the Tigers are on Choo.
If for some reason another team blows Choo away with an offer, it'd be very interesting to see if they would go after Granderson. He fits all their needs. Not as nicely as Choo, but still, a nice safety net.

Where's Ichiro? Shouldn't Soriano be playing defense/cheerleader inside the dugout?

Ha! Where's Ichiro, Japanese version of 'Where's Waldo'.
Yeah, Soriano will probably wear his cheerleader suit more than Ichiro.
First rule- Don't crash into Jacoby!