Talking Baseball Players

[Bronx Yankees]

Mike, you say that the 58 stolen bases are incredibly important.
I agree, but at what cost?
His drafters are spending a top of the second round pick for those stolen bases.
In effect, it's a little like drafting Aroldis Chapman in the second or third round in previous years.
Chapman had the strike out qualities of a seventh starter and his WHIP and ERA delicious.
At the same time, was it worth the cost of bypassing one of those six outfielders mentioned before for those numbers?

If taking Gordon, home runs and runs batted in are completely bypassed in an offensive player in the second round.
The six or seven points gained in the stolen base category, lost in the home runs, rbi category.
Gordon's price is just too high for what is offered.

Maybe, but I guess it depends on how you construct your team. Another way of looking at it is that if you take Gordon early, it frees you up later to take certain power hitters that contribute little or nothing in SBs. It is just another way of trying to get to the same end-result, which is strength in all five hitting categories.

I confess that while I tend to gravitate toward certain players, I also like to try new things in DC leagues as a way of preparing me for the bigger money leagues. I am not a huge fan of Dee Gordon, but have wondered how I would build a team around him if he "fell" to me in a draft, and would I like that team when all was said and done. As it so happens, I drafted Gordon, for the very first time, in the DC league that I currently am playing. I got the #8 slot, and Kershaw was available in Round 1. I grabbed him. Then, when 2.8 came around, Scherzer and Arrieta were gone, so it was an easy decision not to double down on pitching. Of the OFs I mentioned above, McCutchen, Pollock, Betts and Springer all were gone. This was before the Rockies traded Dickerson and so there still was some risk Blackmon would leave Coors. The Gordon v. Marte choice was a tough one for me. In most cases, I probably would go Marte. I think if I took a hitter in Round 1 and planned to go pitching in Round 3, I would have drafted Marte. However, having gone Kershaw in Round 1, I had an idea of where I wanted to go in the next few rounds to try to make up power and knew there would not be a lot of SBs there. Thus, I decided to give it a go with Gordon. My first five picks of that draft were:

1.8 Kershaw SP
2.8 Gordon 2B
3.8 Cespedes OF
4.8 Cruz OF
5.8 Hosmer 1B

Then, I turned back to pitching. I do not feel like I'm punting any category in this draft. Will Gordon be worth the 2nd round pick, or have a better year than Marte? Who knows? You may be right and I very well may regret that pick. Still, as I look at my first four batters, I think all will be at or above average in BA, Cespedes and Cruz give me a nice base of power (which I tried to build on later), Cespedes and Hosmer should be strong in R and RBI (and Gordon will be strong in R and Cruz should be strong in RBI and OK in R), and, collectively, I probably was at or near the top of the league in SB, at least through the first five rounds. Going Gordon in Round 2 forced me to commit to a hitter in Round 3 instead of reinforcing Kershaw with another elite SP, although I may have felt that need if Marte was my only hitter in the first two rounds. I thought about grabbing an SP in Round 4, but none of the true elites were left, and I feel like the second tier of SPs lasts several rounds. I do not think Gordon should be viewed solely as a one-trick pony (like Billy Hamilton). Granted, Gordon hurts you in HR and RBI, but I think he will contribute positively in R and BA even if the BA regresses some. Also, in terms of SB, he is a true elite at a time when SBs are becoming more scarce. (Someone better at math probably can do the numbers, but 50 SB are worth a lot more than 50 HR, and probably more than 60 or 70 HR.) Is Gordon like Chris Davis in reverse? Chris Davis will hurt a team in BA and SB, be OK to good in R and RBI, and be elite in HR. In this particular draft, he went 1.12 (which is before I would consider drafting him).

Finally, I like how reasonable minds can differ on this. It would be boring otherwise. Who knows? Come late-March, I may not even give Gordon a thought in Round 2. For my current draft, however, I feel OK about my team so far. Time will tell whether I wasted my money.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

You constructed that team very well, Mike. Very, very opportune to have Cruz still available in the fourth round. That became the lynch pin of your construction.
As I alluded to earlier, I took Billy Hamilton with a fifth round pick in order to recover speed. We all do what we can to construct the best roster possible.
I think you did a marvelous job of building around Gordon.

[Bronx Yankees]

You constructed that team very well, Mike. Very, very opportune to have Cruz still available in the fourth round. That became the lynch pin of your construction.
As I alluded to earlier, I took Billy Hamilton with a fifth round pick in order to recover speed. We all do what we can to construct the best roster possible.
I think you did a marvelous job of building around Gordon.

Yeah, point well taken. I felt lucky that Cruz was available in Round 4. That was not something I was counting on when I drafted Gordon. I was confident that Cespedes and/or J.D. Martinez would be available in Round 3, and also thought there was a good chance that J. Upton and/or A. Jones would be available in Round 4. Cespedes/Cruz made me feel like I caught up on the missing power relatively quickly. Interestingly, I am not a huge Cruz fan and this also was the first draft I ever picked him. I'm not sure how, at his age, he is having the best years of his career, and to do what he did last year in Seattle of all places, but for purposes of this team I'm hoping he has one more good year in him.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

You may even call your team and anti-value team.
Many, especially those on fantasy radio, dislike the thought of starting a team with a pitcher. Gordon in the second round will be questioned by many.
Cespedes haters are everywhere and they do not think he belongs in third round.
Your first three picks look good together. At the same time, an anti-value team

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let me throw one out for you fellas....

Drew Smyly or Jake Odorizzi?

[Bronx Yankees]

Let me throw one out for you fellas....

Drew Smyly or Jake Odorizzi?

Close call, primarily due to Smyly's injury history. If you told me both would pitch an equal amount of innings, I'd go Smyly every time. I simply think he has better stuff and a higher ceiling. But, he is more of a health risk (although Odorizzi has never broken 170 IP himself). At the point of the draft where these guys are being taken, I'd be inclined to go upside over safety. To win leagues, you almost always need guys in Rounds 11-20 to play well above their draft position, and I think Smyly has the better chance of doing that.

Interesting comparison given that they are around the same age, play the same position, have pretty good stuff, play for the same team, etc. Slight edge to Smyly.

Mike

[NorCalAtlFan]

ok, another one.

The "big 4". Of course I'm referring to young guns Berrios, Giolito, Glasnow, and Snell. All have the makings to be something special, and all should see time major league time this season.
Do you pass and take the safer options? Do you throw caution to the wind and grab one? Inquiring minds want to know.

FTR, I have shares of all 4 in various spots, but probably lean Berrios as I think he has the clearest path to a spot.

[Bronx Yankees]

ok, another one.

The "big 4". Of course I'm referring to young guns Berrios, Giolito, Glasnow, and Snell. All have the makings to be something special, and all should see time major league time this season.
Do you pass and take the safer options? Do you throw caution to the wind and grab one? Inquiring minds want to know.

FTR, I have shares of all 4 in various spots, but probably lean Berrios as I think he has the clearest path to a spot.

Interesting question. So far, I have two shares of Giolito and none of the other three. The write-ups on all four sound great. I agree Berrios may have the first opportunity. I was kind of watching Snell in drafts with the thought that if the Rays traded pitching for hitting, say with the Rockies, it might open a path for Snell. But, as we know, the Rays somehow managed to pry Corey Dickerson away from the Rockies without having to give up any of their starters.

I think the reason I've largely stayed away from these pitchers is that I have not seen anything more than brief clips of any of them and, consequently, am reluctant to draft them as high as I would need to do to get them. I took a quick look at their current ADPs before writing this response: Berrios 259, Glasnow 285, Snell 328 and Giolito 338. Thus, these guys generally are being drafted while folks are still drafting their starting lineups. In all cases, they possibly could break camp with the team, but they also possibly could stay down in the minors until late-June or July. Who knows how they will do in their first exposure to major league batters? Will they be allowed to pitch down the stretch or will their seasons also end early due to innings limits? I guess I slightly favor Glasnow and Giolito because they play for the stronger teams and in the NL. All four seem to have favorable parks. With Pittsburgh's park and defense (and pitching coach), Glasnow might have the best situation once elevated. If you read what the "experts" say, Giolito might have the best stuff of the four, but who knows? I guess I'm currently prepared, depending on my team, to draft one of these guys starting around Round 20 or so. Not sure I want to risk a much higher pick on any of them before knowing that they will break with the team. I do plan to try to catch them in pre-season games to see them for myself, so my current opinion may change once they are subjected to the eyeball test.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

ok, another one.

The "big 4". Of course I'm referring to young guns Berrios, Giolito, Glasnow, and Snell. All have the makings to be something special, and all should see time major league time this season.
Do you pass and take the safer options? Do you throw caution to the wind and grab one? Inquiring minds want to know.

FTR, I have shares of all 4 in various spots, but probably lean Berrios as I think he has the clearest path to a spot.

I think this question bears why the adp is unimportant. Especially at this time of year.
These four will have a Spring Training to show everyone if they belong or not.
Even if great, they'll still have the matter of teams wanting to control them for an extra year.
Putting them in the minors till May.
Some drafters, as with Kris Bryant last year, will pay that price. Some will be reluctant and only get them at a good price to them.
Others will avoid them altogether.

They're 'fun' picks for the DC's.
But when having a 30 man roster, they're not so much fun when residing in the minors.
Spring training and team decisions will be the large tell for these four pitchers.

[Bronx Yankees]

ok, another one.

The "big 4". Of course I'm referring to young guns Berrios, Giolito, Glasnow, and Snell. All have the makings to be something special, and all should see time major league time this season.
Do you pass and take the safer options? Do you throw caution to the wind and grab one? Inquiring minds want to know.

FTR, I have shares of all 4 in various spots, but probably lean Berrios as I think he has the clearest path to a spot.

They're 'fun' picks for the DC's.
But when having a 30 man roster, they're not so much fun when residing in the minors.
Spring training and team decisions will be the large tell for these four pitchers.

Really good point. I have vowed that I never again will dedicate more than one roster spot in a big money FAAB league to a player in the minors or a player recovering from injury, and, even then, I better have a damned good reason for doing so. Last year, I wasted a bench spot for two months or maybe longer on Jose Peraza because I really needed help in SBs ... help that never came. I do not want to think of possible opportunities lost because of that stash. Never again. (Famous last words ....)

Mike

[Fast Eddie]

Jon Lucroy vs Sal Perez?? Interchanging ADPs around 107 overall...
Memory of 2014 4th place MVP or 2015 World Series MVP???
Prefer a player who publicly demands a trade...err...except to THOSE eight cities, of course (insert Doughy rant here) or who publicly demands an unprecedented restructuring of his contract since he...err...didn't really mean to sign the first one, of course (or here Doughy!)

Love this question!!!

Mostly because I don't think it's even close and I know that many, many of you folks will disagree with me.
BUT, that is what message boards are for, right?

Sal Perez had 160 more at bats than Lucroy last year. He scored one more run than Lucroy.
Perez has more power, but it is a little bit negated by playing in Kansas City and not hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Perez can hit five to seven more homers than Lucroy and still trail him in rbi.
And, Lucroy is a given to have a better batting average.
I like Lucroy, at least, a full round ahead of Perez and maybe even more.
I have drafted Lucroy a couple of times.
Not surprisingly, I haven't taken Sal yet.

On the fence about Lucroy 'demanding' a trade. I can understand not wanting to play for losers.
But I don't think that's the full story. I don't believe he ever really backed Ryan Braun being re-accepted by his team and organization and believe he wants to get away from the situation.
It should be interesting to see where he goes if traded.
Milwaukee's a great place to hit.

Agreed Doughy.
I would love to see Lucroy in Arlington. Seems to be a nice fit for him and the club. Maybe he sits in the 2-hole as well, especially if Choo decides to use his first half 2015 approach... Houston would be another nice fit; although probably further down the batting order. If not traded in the next week or two it appears he will remain in Milwaukee, which as you stated, a great hitters park.

[OaktownSteve]

ok. good thread.

thoughts on the 2 rd spread between Pollock and Blackmon? Hell, Betts, Marte, and Blackmon? food for thought

i feel anyone else pulls a 17-43 season on the back of a 19-28 season would be thought of more highly.

It's a good point about Blackmon. The market place is all about subtle differences in perception. I think there might have been a feeling that the OF in Colorado might have been crowded with Dickerson there so maybe ABs plus the Colorado altitude injury thing. His min pick is 24 in the early ADP so maybe we'll see him creep up closer to Marte as the season gets nearer.

[OaktownSteve]

Eliot said April is the cruelest month, but for baseball fans it's February.

Here are guys I've been kicking around in my head.

Last year I said he was a wasted pick in the first round and everybody said, "he's so safe." Man there's no such thing as safe. But this year he's a little more interesting. How much was the injury last year? How much age. Always fascinating to watch the effect of aging on our perception. People who like "safe" picks will still like him.

Puig? Even his manager doesn't know where he is.

In February Jose Fernandez is on all my imaginary teams just so I can imagine him throwing 0-2 sliders sometime in July.

I'm rooting for Rich HIll. I went back and watched his run with the Sox end of last year and it was watching a guy throw a wiffleball in the backyard.

I like narratives in February. This is one in my head. The Nationals are all going to steal bases. Harper could go 40/30 with his walks. Dusty Baker takes off the training wheels; Davey Lopes is the brains at 1st. Revere goes over 50.

My gut also says the big surprise is Strasburg is in the conversation for top SP. His second half was dirty good.

I realized this year that I've been playing fantasy sports long enough to now have rostered two different Mookies. In the original fantasy bible, Rotisserie Baseball, there is a joke in there about Mookie Wilson. Can't remember the context but the punchline is that Mookie Wilson is an anagram for "Look out women, is I."

Dan, you might appreciate this. I played my first league using the original Rotisserie rules in 1985. One thing about the way the Founding Father's laid it out, it was so much more about the pretending to own a team. They had logos for their teams and backstories. They had a history and an alternative universe. It's why LABR is the league of alternative baseball reality. The idea was a baseball life beyond root for the home team.

I probably couldn't go back from playing against you big boys for $, but I do kind of get nostalgic for the good old days of just assing around with it.

[Navel Lint]

I played my first league using the original Rotisserie rules in 1985. One thing about the way the Founding Father's laid it out, it was so much more about the pretending to own a team. They had logos for their teams and backstories. They had a history and an alternative universe. It's why LABR is the league of alternative baseball reality. The idea was a baseball life beyond root for the home team.

I probably couldn't go back from playing against you big boys for $, but I do kind of get nostalgic for the good old days of just assing around with it.

My first Live NFBC event was in 2008, it was the Main Event in Chicago.
Chicago had four leagues at the time. If I remember correctly, the event was held at the Stevens Convention Center. It was a huge room and I was in awe.
But as I said, this was my first Live NFBC event. The only thing I knew prior to this was varies local leagues that I had played. So I did what I had always done in the past.....

I was one of the first people to show up. I signed in, found my table and seat. There was a place card there with my name on it, but I moved that to the side and brought out my own handmade nameplate.
My nameplate had my name, my team name (Navel Lint), and my "Logo". My logo was a photo of a beautifully tanned young women's torso with a fig leaf(lint) belly button ring.
I was proud of my logo, until the room started filling up. I didn't see any other logo's coming out, that's when I knew that I wasn't playing in my home league anymore. At some point before the draft started, I casually put my nameplate back into my case.

Here is the original logo...

Navel Lint.jpg (10.39 KiB) Viewed 11478 times

[Gb2715]

Here is another I have been trying to figure out. Prince Fielder Rd 5? Is Prince really worth an early 5th Rd price tag only having UT eligibility? I'm trying to figure out when he will get his 10 games for 1b eligibility. The rangers have 10 interleague games and they play 5 before the all star break and 3 in the last week of the season. So really he may get to 10 what around July 1 if that? So my question isn't a 5th Rd pick a bit high on a UT player that won't be eligible for any other spot until at least the all star break? Someone help me wrap my mind around this. Lol

[Atlas]

I played my first league using the original Rotisserie rules in 1985. One thing about the way the Founding Father's laid it out, it was so much more about the pretending to own a team. They had logos for their teams and backstories. They had a history and an alternative universe. It's why LABR is the league of alternative baseball reality. The idea was a baseball life beyond root for the home team.

I probably couldn't go back from playing against you big boys for $, but I do kind of get nostalgic for the good old days of just assing around with it.

My first Live NFBC event was in 2008, it was the Main Event in Chicago.
Chicago had four leagues at the time. If I remember correctly, the event was held at the Stevens Convention Center. It was a huge room and I was in awe.
But as I said, this was my first Live NFBC event. The only thing I knew prior to this was varies local leagues that I had played. So I did what I had always done in the past.....

I was one of the first people to show up. I signed in, found my table and seat. There was a place card there with my name on it, but I moved that to the side and brought out my own handmade nameplate.
My nameplate had my name, my team name (Navel Lint), and my "Logo". My logo was a photo of a beautifully tanned young women's torso with a fig leaf(lint) belly button ring.
I was proud of my logo, until the room started filling up. I didn't see any other logo's coming out, that's when I knew that I wasn't playing in my home league anymore. At some point before the draft started, I casually put my nameplate back into my case.

Here is the original logo...

Navel Lint.jpg

HA!

A little off topic but...

I cut my teeth in CBS leagues years ago. My son (Dan) and I played together as sort a bonding thing. So we named our team the Double D's (for Dan and Dad). But my logo was....well...a gif of double d's. Similar to what you have seen countless times bouncing around these message boards. (Pun intended)

You know....someone complained about half way thru the season and CBS made us take it down. I switched it over to two musical note D's.

Ya think they would have at least had the decency to express their displeasure with our logo to us first...lol.

[Bronx Yankees]

Here is another I have been trying to figure out. Prince Fielder Rd 5? Is Prince really worth an early 5th Rd price tag only having UT eligibility? I'm trying to figure out when he will get his 10 games for 1b eligibility. The rangers have 10 interleague games and they play 5 before the all star break and 3 in the last week of the season. So really he may get to 10 what around July 1 if that? So my question isn't a 5th Rd pick a bit high on a UT player that won't be eligible for any other spot until at least the all star break? Someone help me wrap my mind around this. Lol

I think that's too early for Fielder. He could be only UT eligible for a good part of the season (depending on Moreland's health). He had a good BA last year but the power waned. If gambling an early pick on a UT-only player, I'd much rather have Sano in the 4th round (and he'll probably be OF eligible in April). I also think Ortiz in the 7th or 8th is more attractive than Fielder in the 5th round, as is Kendry Morales in the teens. (The gap between Fielder and a healthy Morales is not big IMO.)

Mike

[Bronx Yankees]

Dan - I'll throw out one for you (and others if they want to chime in). How do you evaluate foreign born players that have no time in the MLB or the minors? Bryan asked a question earlier in this thread on the four top minor league pitchers most likely to see appreciable time in the majors this season. In a way, foreign born players are the same for me, in that I can't subject them to the eyeball test yet (and only will have a limited opportunity to do so in Spring Training against inferior competition). Also, their comps are different than minor leaguers. Do you rely on reputations alone? How many of the commentators and prognosticators really are knowledgeable about the specific players in question (probably very few)? Do you try to extrapolate based on players from the same countries? For instance, do you evaluate Kenta Maeda based on how Tanaka's figures translated? Do you evaluate Byung-ho Park based on how well Jung-ho Kang did? This seems very risky to me - all players are different (including how well they handle the huge changes of playing in a foreign country), and two MLB players going over to Japan might produce very different results. I find that I never seem to own these guys in their first year in the MLB, probably because someone in my leagues always will take the chance on the unknown before I will. Maybe that's for the best - not sure. Just curious how you handle in general - no need to get specific on any individual player.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Simple answer is that most of us don't know what to expect from foreign players.
Mostly, we rely on any reports we can get from writers. The problem being that even most of those accounts are not first hand. And even if so, not even the people who saw a foreign player can foresee how they'll do in the Majors.
Kang and Park were the top two players in Korea. Last year, Park and Marcus Thames were the two best players.
Thames showed flashes of being a good ball player. Eventually washing out and playing in Korea.
Is Park good?
We really have no idea.
Kang can be called a success. But, he took a couple of months before adjusting to the Bigs.
Park could follow the sme track or wash out.
You're right, each player is different.

Same with Maeda. We read that he's a good pitcher, but not dominant. Iwakuma with less strike outs is how he is described.
And, he also has physical issues in signing a incentive-ladened contract.
They sure don't make it easy on us, do they?
I own one share each of Park and Maeda.
Like you, others find them more appealing and are more willing to accept the risk/reward at a higher price than I can accept.

Of course, this all changes when Spring Training starts. If any foreign player has an exceptional Spring Training, their price increases. Drafters have the false sense of security in now 'knowing these players' now
It is up to us to decide whether those spring stats have legs or are just a result of facing lesser competition or competing all out against players who are merely experimenting.
Tough.

[DOUGHBOYS]

At the beginning of the off season, Corey Dickerson was being taken in the fifth round of most drafts.
Now, he is selected in the ninth or tenth round.
Dickerson's skills or ability haven't changed at all. This illustrates how much a players surroundings mean to us as fantasy players.
In a sense, Dickerson is half the player (10th round) in Tampa, than in Colorado (5th round).
Location, location, location isn't confined to real estate.

At the same time, Gerardo Parra started out in the 16th round, going after the 20th round in some drafts.
Now, Parra is settling in between the tenth and twelfth rounds, drafted even as high as the eighth round.
Before this trade, Parra has generally been thought of as a piece of our roster puzzle.
A player that can mix in 10 homers or 10 stolen bases. Never in his career has he had more than 15 of either.
His drafters hoping for Preston Wilson or Jay Payton seasons.
Here is a throwaway stat.
To me, a throwaway stat is one that could have zero meaning or be meaningful. Up to each of us to decide.
Gerardo Parra has had 173 career at bats at Coors Field.
Even against poor Rockies pitching, he has yet to hit a homer there.

[Bronx Yankees]

I'm not sure if Coors is that great a park for home runs, but Parra is not a big home run hitter anyway. Coors has a huge outfield, which should play to Parra's strengths. He should get lots of singles and doubles in Coors, and probably will score a lot of runs and perhaps steal a few more bags. I'd say the move, coupled with the trade of Dickerson freeing up a full-time job, warrants a move up of several rounds. I think where Parra now is being drafted is reasonable.

I went from never owning Dickerson because he went too high (for me) to just recently taking him for the first time because I thought he dropped too far. Yes, the move from Colorado to Tampa is not favorable, but I do not think it is hugely unfavorable either. He is now in the AL East, with a DH role to help with playing time/minor health issues. Also, although Tampa arguably is a pitchers' ballpark, he'll be playing a ton of road games in New York, Boston, Baltimore and Toronto - four big-time hitters' parks (and none of those teams have great starting pitching). I'm not going to reach for Dickerson, but if he falls into Rounds 8-10 or so, I may pounce. Location is important, but in this case the downgrade being seen now may be overblown. At least, that's my two cents.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

I agree, Mike. I think that adp has solidly missed on Dickerson.
I did not believe they punished Dickerson enough for his injury woes last year. The fifth round, I never even thought about him.
But for being traded, he is punished five rounds?
That punishment is like swatting a fly with a sledge hammer.
It isn't as big of a knock on Dickerson as it is on Dickerson's ceiling.
In the fifth round, I believe that folks were dreaming of an Arenado type breakout.
That fizzles with the trade.
Now, folks hoping for a Cole Calhoun type season.

[NorCalAtlFan]

I agree, Mike. I think that adp has solidly missed on Dickerson.
I did not believe they punished Dickerson enough for his injury woes last year. The fifth round, I never even thought about him.
But for being traded, he is punished five rounds?
That punishment is like swatting a fly with a sledge hammer.
It isn't as big of a knock on Dickerson as it is on Dickerson's ceiling.
In the fifth round, I believe that folks were dreaming of an Arenado type breakout.
That fizzles with the trade.
Now, folks hoping for a Cole Calhoun type season.

i don't think anyone was dreaming of an arenado type breakout. i think people thought 25 hr and the corresponding numbers was reasonable. and shocking, that's where those type of bats go.
i think you got a good buy mike. he just went in the 9th rd in a dc im in now.

Hmmm, how about Maikel Franco vs Evan Longoria? both going roughly in the same round. the youth vs the fallen star? both have pretty bad lineups around them, but longo just inherited super stud Dickerson . my lean for 2016 is longo. barely

[DOUGHBOYS]

Longoria WAS Franco at one time. Ceiling seemed to be unlimited.
But Longoria has been steadily falling in drafts each year. Apparent, that he'll never be the superstar that a lot of baseball people thought he would be.
Still, I believe that adp is punishing him just a little too much. This may not be because of Longoria himself though.
Third basemen are top heavy this year. Four selected in the first round (Donaldson, Machado, Arenado, Bryant).
Four selected in the next four rounds(Frazier, Carpenter, Beltre, Seager).
Over half the starting third base inventory for drafters is gone before the sixth round. I believe that at this point in the draft, overdrafting a third baseman is the last thing on a drafters mind.
Longoria is in the Franco/Longoria/Duffy/Moustakas mix.
Usually in that order.

Personally, I believe that Longoria has a superstar year in him. Picking the year is the hard part.
Passing Beltre who is possibly nearing the end of his career is do-able. Surprisingly his stats last year, were very much in line with that of Seager's.
Longoria- .270/74/21/73/3
Seager-- .266/85/26/74/6
Surpassing Seager is quite possible.
If missing on a third baseman in the first round, Longoria is a good and affordable consolation prize.

As for Franco, he has a meaty bat. Shown that way through the minors, especially his 2013 campaign when hitting 31 homers.
As Bryan suggested there will not be much help for Franco in the Phils lineup.
If having a successful April, I can see more and more pitchers throwing the kitchen sink at him (see Joc Pederson) or not throwing to him at all.
Either, not good for his owners.
Half-season stars sometimes fail during their first full year.
The trust that we have in Longoria's floor is the opposite for Franco.
Still, Franco's ceiling keeps him ahead of Longo in adp.
I would rather take the safer bet in Longoria in most drafts.

[Edwards Kings]

Since pitchers and catchers will report between the 18th and 22nd and since this is about the only thread actually talking baseball on this board, I will beg Dan's forgiveness for going a little off topic. I like this quote above all others and while it has been posted on the boards before, it is worth posting again.

"The one constant through all the years has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game, is a part of our past.

It reminds us of all that once was good, and what could be again."

James Earl Jones in Field of Dreams (1989)

Baseball is an American game, no matter how many academics argue over the lineage. Like America, it offers the opportunity for anyone, no matter who, no matter where, to play. All it takes is individual effort. It can be offered, but it cannot be given. It may be very hard to be very good, but it is very easy to enjoy no matter your skill level and, as we all know, very easy to be addicted. Success is only measured in effort and enjoyment. Unique to me is that to anyone who has ever touched this sport, it automatically becomes "our" game.

Again, sorry Dan for the brief hijacking and the sappiness and thanks Dan for all you bring to the boards.