NFBC Message Boards

If owners are hoping for their favorite sleeper to fall to them during the draft, you'd better be prepared for disappointment. Sleepers go quick in a league like this. In fact, you should probably take him a round early, because other owners will be trying the same thing.



Just thought I'd give the "rookies" a head start.



[ January 25, 2004, 04:11 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

This is a valid point Gordon brings up, and it's a topic I have thought about since I signed up. Fact is, the idea of a "sleeper" in this league is totally different that one in a typical neighborhood league. In the leagues I usually play in, I can get away with targeting the "obvious" sleepers in certain rounds. Obvious sleepers consist of the guys coming off injury, or due to get more PT, or young guys ready to bust out. In other words, the guys you see plastered all over the place in the "Sleepers Section" of all the magazines and web sites. In a league like this, those guys aren't sleepers. In contrast to Gordon's point of view, I don't think the solution is to get them a round or 2 early than I would typically. A 10th round value is a 10th round value. Personally, I think you just need to change your target. Instead of targeting the Mark Prior's and Vernon Wells of the world (a couple obvious sleepers from last year) you need to try to find the Bill Mueller's and Esteban Loaiza's. A more difficult proposition to be certain, but one that a league like this demands, I believe.

Originally posted by Rey:

This is a valid point Gordon brings up, and it's a topic I have thought about since I signed up. Fact is, the idea of a "sleeper" in this league is totally different that one in a typical neighborhood league. In the leagues I usually play in, I can get away with targeting the "obvious" sleepers in certain rounds. Obvious sleepers consist of the guys coming off injury, or due to get more PT, or young guys ready to bust out. In other words, the guys you see plastered all over the place in the "Sleepers Section" of all the magazines and web sites. In a league like this, those guys aren't sleepers. In contrast to Gordon's point of view, I don't think the solution is to get them a round or 2 early than I would typically. A 10th round value is a 10th round value. Personally, I think you just need to change your target. Instead of targeting the Mark Prior's and Vernon Wells of the world (a couple obvious sleepers from last year) you need to try to find the Bill Mueller's and Esteban Loaiza's. A more difficult proposition to be certain, but one that a league like this demands, I believe. Let me put the pieces together for you Rey. If Wells was your sleeper last year and he was projected to be a 14th round pick, and you went with the strategy I've suggested and picked him a round early (in the 13th or even 12th or 11th, etc...), you would be a very happy owner. Same goes for Prior.



No matter how hard you try, you will NEVER be able to determine with any degree of success the Mueller's and Loaiza's of the fantasy baseball world. They are called players that had a career year. It happens to a couple of players every year. Pure random events.

Let me try to put the pieces together for you, Mr. Gekko. For every Vernon Wells, there are 3 Jose Cruz Jr.'s. If I estimate that a particular player is a 10th round value, I won't select him in the 9th round, regardless of what type of league I'm in. My point was, these guys simply aren't "sleepers" in a league where everyone knows their true value.



As for your "random events" lesson, I'll simply suggest that with the right amount of preperation, you can sniff out a diamond in the rough. Bill Mueller had an incredible OBP of roughly .365 for his career before last season. His doubles rate was also very healthy. Put a line drive hitter, with an understanding of the strike zone, in a band box like Fenway, and surround him with some talent, and you have the "random event" called Bill Mueller.



[ January 26, 2004, 10:00 AM: Message edited by: Rey ]

Originally posted by Rey:

As for your "random events" lesson, I'll simply suggest that with the right amount of preperation, you can sniff out a diamond in the rough. Bill Mueller had an incredible OBP of roughly .365 for his career before last season. His doubles rate was also very healthy. Put a line drive hitter, with an understanding of the strike zone, in a band box like Fenway, and surround him with some talent, and you have the "random event" called Bill Mueller. Good one! .365 is not an incredible OBP. Durazo had a .379 OBP in 2003. Does that mean he's the 2004 gem? I guess you had Mueller and J.Lopez on all your fantasy teams last year?



If your suggestion is true "I'll simply suggest that with the right amount of preperation, you can sniff out a diamond in the rough," then you should have no problem at all winning the $100,000.

While your sarcasm is greatly appreciated, Mr. Gekko, it does tend to stray from the subject at hand. At no point did I say, or even suggest, that I had Mueller, or Lopez, or any other "random event" on my team last year. I just tried to make a point that finding these guys isn't as random as you might suggest. While I'm sure many league members are quite appreciative of your attempts to "educate the rookies" by suggesting they should take their sleepers "a round early", I just thought it would be just as appreciated for me to mention that I think that approach is somewhat simplistic.



It seems to me, Mr. Gekko, that we simply have a difference of opinion. A different way of playing the game, I guess. Judging by the confidence you seem to be so eager to express to all of us, one would figure that a difference of opinion by a "rookie" such as myself would not elicit such a sarcastic and combative response from an educator such as yourself.



"Confidence, like art, never comes from having all the answers; it comes from being open to all the questions"

--Earl Gray Stevens

All I can tell you guys is that since neither of you will run the other's team it's kinda funny that you care so much to 'debate' it... especially since you're both arguing the same point. The skill in drafting is to project the players where you expect/hope they can produce - and then get them somewhere AFTER that value. i.e. if you feel that Reed Johnson is gonna just explode in Toronto and put up huge numbers... you figure end of year he's the #60 player. If you pick him at the end of the 4th/start of the 5th then you have zero chance to benefit. He'll either perform to your predictions and you get him for fair value or he'll underperform and you're proven to be an idiot. The tought part is that you project Reed Johnson to be a top 60 player, you think you can get him with pick #110, but you lean on him at pick #95 and hope to benefit from picking him a round early, and yet still 3 rounds later than he 'should' have gone if your predictions are accurate.



So, figure out what all the players are going to do ahead of time - calculate the value of that production, try to get them later than you should, pray for healthy players and some dumb luck and we'll know more in August ;0



Good luck,



Dave

Originally posted by Dyv:

The tought part is that you project Reed Johnson to be a top 60 player, you think you can get him with pick #110, but you lean on him at pick #95 and hope to benefit from picking him a round early, and yet still 3 rounds later than he 'should' have gone if your predictions are accurate. Not sure what league you are referring to? In a 15 team league, the owner with the 110th pick also picks at 101, not 95 like you suggested. Perhaps a calculator malfunction...



Other than that, you basically restated my argument. Having a "yes-man" could come in handy. Thanks.

I was working primarily on the concept and didn't worry about the calculator. Sorry to have offended your sensibilities with such horrid inaccuracies, lol.



If it's important for you to always be right... or at least feel like you're always right... then I'll be happy to be your yes man.



At least until I think you're wrong



Dyv

Originally posted by Rey:

"Confidence, like art, never comes from having all the answers; it comes from being open to all the questions"

--Earl Gray Stevens "Some players have no idea what they're about to walk into. Here to have a good time, they figure, Why not give fantasy baseball a try? After all, how different can it be from the home games they've played their whole lives?" - Rounders/Gordon Gekko

Geez Dyv, with that type of mistake, we'll have to kick you out of the Leaderboard Sports.

I guess we're gonna have to see how the rookie fares, huh? Just make sure to draft those sleepers a round or 2 early, Gekko.

Phil, if you kick me out of my own group I'm gonna have to kick you off your own website



Next time I even THINK about spending 3 minutes on this message board I'm going to make sure I leave 10 minutes to edit my posts!

There has not been a sleeper in any real league since the invention of the internet.



Thank you that is all.

ssshhhhhh.......I heard Alex Rodriguez might be one of the better shortstops this year....keep it under your hat

Seems to me Gordon and Rey should be in the same 15 team league. They can carry their opinions forward where they have meaning.

Originally posted by The Regular Guy:

Seems to me Gordon and Rey should be in the same 15 team league. They can carry their opinions forward where they have meaning. I'm sure all your opinions are accurate and correct. Please post an intelligent fantasy baseball opinion. Come on...the MB is waiting.

Yup, it appears your arrogance does indeed carry across all message boards...you cackle away Geck while the rest of us will just prepare...hehehe.

Originally posted by BONGIZMO:

Yup, it appears your arrogance does indeed carry across all message boards...you cackle away Geck while the rest of us will just prepare...hehehe. Good one! My staff is top notch, and I'll match them up against anyone. If you knew our line of work, you'd agree.

Your choice of names, your attitude and the locale that you reside make me pretty confident that I know your line of work...



Interestingly enough, methinks that may be the only thing we have in common... :rolleyes:

Originally posted by BONGIZMO:

Your choice of names, your attitude and the locale that you reside make me pretty confident that I know your line of work...



Interestingly enough, methinks that may be the only thing we have in common... :rolleyes: Anybody who tells you money is the root of all evil doesn't ******* have any.

Money doesn't buy happiness, HOWEVER it does provide options...

Originally posted by BONGIZMO:

Yup, it appears your arrogance does indeed carry across all message boards...you cackle away Geck while the rest of us will just prepare...hehehe. Are you the same Bongizmo that finished 43 out of 45 in the WCOFB last year? Just curious.

Would you be the same individual that talks a big game yet didn't even participate in the WCOFB last year? Just curious...



[ February 25, 2004, 12:22 AM: Message edited by: BONGIZMO ]