I found 'Value' at Barnes and Noble

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm in a pissy (oh spell checker, you know what that means, admit it) mood, so I decided to take it out on you guys!
A bad fantasy week, but of course any week without real baseball is a bad fantasy week. At least we're drafting.
We finished KJ's Contract League Draft including a free agent auction in four days.
Four days!
This includes stopping the draft in the second round to get rid of a drafter who was too slow. Insert Marcel jokes here.
That Contract League is a slice of fantasy heaven. If you're slow or thinned-skinned, you need not apply. Sort of like going to the bar with friends and seeing who can hurl the best insults.
But that ended and so did my good time feeling. I turned on XM Radio to get a 'Post Fight' wrapup on the draft there. I swear to God, I heard the word 'VALUE' 1,301 times. It may have been more. Here is an excerpt of them talking about Ubaldo Jimenez-
How'd you like my Jimenez pick?
He's ok there, you got some value.
I liked him last year but overvalued him a bit.
Yeah, last year he was overvalued, the year before he was undervalued, this year he's valued correctly.

I turned it off. I couldn't stand it. If I could throw a car radio it would have gone through the windshield.
OF COURSE HE'S VALUED CORRECTLY THIS YEAR, YOU MORON, YOU HAVEN'T SEEN THE RESULTS YET!!!
Last year he was overvalued because you saw the results, the year before the same thing. Nobody gets it. I'm on a plank and the value pirates are asking how much value I'd have with sharks. I need to find a Tru Value store. They have the right idea, they're selling stuff that is valued correctly and we know what we're getting. Anybody that thinks they KNOW what they are getting during a draft are only fooling themselves! Just two days ago, anybody who drafted Victor Martinez in the fourth round of drafts was getting 'value', now, bupkus, nada, zilch, nothing, because we KNOW.

Ok, calm down. Let's get off the value kick. I'll immerse myself in drafts! Yeah, that's the ticket! I'll go back to my slow draft where Marcel is still holding us hostage. He's old news, but hasn't changed, I get little peace with this draft. So, I tune into another draft. One that is an e-mail draft run by Perry Van Hook and has various NFBC members included such as Todd Zola and Ryan Carey. Every time I look in on this draft I see the top of my mental queue being drafted. By the time it comes my time to draft, I am like the proverbial kid with the finger up his nose-
Time out! That reminds me; I love bad pick up lines, here's one- 'If you were a booger, I'd pick you'. Try saying that sincerely
Ok, back to the rant, er, post.

Alright, so my wife begs me to go shopping with her the other night (as if things can't get worse). I've been drafting a lot, she's put up with it, so I know I owe her one and I say sure. At the same time, I know that Marcel's time is about up and I don't want to keep others waiting. I don't like auto and prefer not to use it. I don't own a cell phone because I don't usually enjoy phone talk a lot. So, I am hoping I can cut corners with time.
We go into a few clothes shops- one hour down.
Target, to get a couple of items- another half hour.
Next, Barnes and Noble, we like different books so we part. I noticed in the coffee shop that a few people are looking at their laptops.
Yep, I do it.
I slide into a chair across the table from a woman my age, and when I say 'my age', I mean old.
I say, "Hi, isn't it great they have wifi here?"
"Uh, yeah, I love it here."
I say, "Do you come here for the books, the coffee, or the wifi the most?"
"All of them"
I say, "Yeah, me too, I can't believe I forgot my laptop, I am really bummed, and I am on a deadline for something online."
(This is when I give her the 'puppy dog in search of a bone look')
"Oh, would you like me to open a window for you?"
I was in, it wasn't my turn and I knew I could wait till I get home to make my pick.
"I said, "Thank you very much, I hope I wasn't too much trouble"
"You were a perfect gentleman" and then she gave me a face as if to say, 'don't leave, I kinda like you'.
I got up from my chair, only to see my wife looking at us from a few feet away.
She's giving me the 'WTF' look. I still haven't heard the end of it.
I don't know whether she's more pissed at me for sitting at a table for two with a lady, or the lengths I go to to check in on a draft.

My wife won't let it go. And she won't for awhile. I know I deserve it.
But, it can't be helped. Blame it on me or the hobby or what have you.
I'm in the doghouse. And I've looked, and trust me, there is no value here.

[Glenneration X]

Don't know why I love this story so much, but I do.

It reminds me how much I appreciate how patient my wife is with me and my addiction to this hobby of ours. Still, as patient as she is, there are limits. Like Dan and I'm sure most of us, I push them.

Gotta love that I'm not alone in the doghouse once in awhile. Don't worry Dan, it's rarely a life sentence, but certainly a deserved punishment. No doubt though that at the time, the crime was worth the penalty.

[Schwks]

More importantly, did you score the digits?

[Money]

Dan,

You continue to come up with entertaining, original material that everyone loves and can relate to. I think you've taken your game to another level with the creation of your own permanent home on the boards. I was sitting having a beer (believe it or not) while reading this, I was cracking up. Great stuff here, along with the Ann Margaret thread, the value thread and stuff and and and.....

I refuse to use the word "Value" now, I simply say "I like him there". Thanks Dan.

[swampass]

really fantastic stuff and oh so true for me and I'm sure others! its tough to convince the wife every sunday that I have to have time to work on my moves for my fantasy team.

Your writing is some of the most entertaining, and in all honesty, some of the most informative reading on the internet. I was shocked on the lifespan of a baseball. blew my mind.

please keep up the great work.

ps your rants on value kill me! maybe we can talk about upside? ive been seeing some pitchers with "upside" going from rounds 20-30.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

Excellent story! And I do agree with you about "value". The object of this thing isn't to get "value". It's to draft players who have good seasons. And you won't know that until the season ends, or at minimum, is well on its way to ending.

[bjoak]

How'd you like my Jimenez pick?
He's ok there, you got some value.
I liked him last year but overvalued him a bit.
Yeah, last year he was overvalued, the year before he was undervalued, this year he's valued correctly.

I've been away, but let's think about this. Would you prefer the following?

How'd you like my Jimenez pick?
He's ok there, you will have gotten some value if he performs the way I think he will perform this year.
I liked him last year but overvalued him a bit at the draft as it turns out because he did not perform up to expectations.
Yeah, last year it turned out that he was overvalued because he did not perform up to expectations and the year before he was undervalued because he ended up being a lot better than people thought he would be, but I really think this will be the year that he's valued correctly because in my opinion he will perform somewhere between the previous two years, but of course we will have to wait until the end of the season to find out if we are really valuing him correctly.

I hear your frustration and frankly these guys should find some new words, particularly since the second guy contradicts himself ("you got some value" vs. "he's valued correctly"), but you should understand that it's just shorthand so that every sentence doesn't end with "if this season goes the way I expect it to." Everyone knows they mean "I think."

Also, though, it is common in persuasive writing and speaking to write opinions as facts ("I think gun control is okay," vs. "Guns are an evil in our society and they kill people every day"*). It will not mean as much to someone if you say, "I think you kinda sorta will have gotten some value there if the season turns out the way I think it will, but I wouldn't count on that because I know just as little as everyone else," as it will if you just say, "You got great value!"

*Does not necessarily reflect the author's view of guns.

[DOUGHBOYS]

How'd you like my Jimenez pick?
He's ok there, you got some value.
I liked him last year but overvalued him a bit.
Yeah, last year he was overvalued, the year before he was undervalued, this year he's valued correctly.

I've been away, but let's think about this. Would you prefer the following?

How'd you like my Jimenez pick?
He's ok there, you will have gotten some value if he performs the way I think he will perform this year.
I liked him last year but overvalued him a bit at the draft as it turns out because he did not perform up to expectations.
Yeah, last year it turned out that he was overvalued because he did not perform up to expectations and the year before he was undervalued because he ended up being a lot better than people thought he would be, but I really think this will be the year that he's valued correctly because in my opinion he will perform somewhere between the previous two years, but of course we will have to wait until the end of the season to find out if we are really valuing him correctly.

I hear your frustration and frankly these guys should find some new words, particularly since the second guy contradicts himself ("you got some value" vs. "he's valued correctly"), but you should understand that it's just shorthand so that every sentence doesn't end with "if this season goes the way I expect it to." Everyone knows they mean "I think."

Also, though, it is common in persuasive writing and speaking to write opinions as facts ("I think gun control is okay," vs. "Guns are an evil in our society and they kill people every day"*). It will not mean as much to someone if you say, "I think you kinda sorta will have gotten some value there if the season turns out the way I think it will, but I wouldn't count on that because I know just as little as everyone else," as it will if you just say, "You got great value!"

*Does not necessarily reflect the author's view of guns.

Unless speaking in the past tense, the word 'value' means zero, nada, zilch.
Lets say Jimenez has an adp, a real adp of the ninth round. I may over pick him or over draft him in the eighth because he is a target or he best fit my team. If I take him in the 10th, 11th, or 12th he isn't of any more 'value'. He is still the same pitcher. There may be several reasons for the drop in picking Jimenez; Drafters of like minds about his abilities, not a good fit for most teams, or a smarter or dumber draft than others. He can be over picked or under picked, the value remains the same.

I know it's semantics to most and I get that. If there is a large failing in our hobby, it is how we cling to words to describe so many things. The word 'sleeper' has evolved from a player that was known to a drafter while unknown by others, to a player that a drafter covets and expects more from than other drafters.
I get a chuckle when magazine covers say they have a list of sleepers. 'Dude! Those are YOUR sleepers, not mine!

Fantasy shows are replacing the value word slowly with 'upside'.
Young players have upside. Old players don't.
While picking your first baseman, you may have a choice between Hosmer and Konerko. Konerko has been a consistent guy with known numbers.
No upside there.
Hosmer is young and does not have the history of Konerko. Hence, 'upside' is used to fill the void.
BUT, there is upside with Konerko, I know it's not the 'upside' others are talking about, it is the upside of knowing what you'll most likely get at 1b, compared to an unknown quantity at 1b.
James Loney had 15 home runs in 96 games when he arrived in the Major Leagues. 'Upside' was through the roof!
Since then, in more games, Loney has never matched that figure. His upside has turned into a kick to the Billybobs .

It's my fault that I get on their case so much. I let these words get to me. But, I figure if they're getting to me, they may be getting to others. These Boards are a great retreat from them, for the most part.
Of course, now that I say that I expect 'My All-Value' posts to pop up

[bjoak]

I may over pick him or over draft him in the eighth because he is a target or he best fit my team. If I take him in the 10th, 11th, or 12th he isn't of any more 'value'. He is still the same pitcher.

You are giving the perfect example of how the player *does* give value even before a single pitch has been thrown. Not sure how you don't see it. If you take him in the 9th and get someone else in the 12th the *value* will not be as good as if you take him in the 12th and get someone else in the 9th. A 9th round player is usually better than a 12th and you still get the pitcher you want with him. Even you have to agree that a 9th round pick is more *valu*able than a 12th round pick. Otherwise what are we doing here? You could have a random name generator pick your team for you if the player pool doesn't ever diminish.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There's no more 'value'. He was simply under picked or over picked. His 'value' remains the same.
Sure, we would like to see a progression in our picks. Each pick should be a quality of player less than the last one. It never is.
The truth is that half our roster will be replaced by faab players, including players in the first 10 rounds.
We thought last week that Victor Martinez had 3/4 round 'value'. Now, he is of no value at all. BUT, he was still under picked and over picked. The value is in the perception. It could be why you project players to do certain things and I do not. I, simply do not trust players enough to project them.
Where you see the 'value' of projecting a player at .302/94/25/102/10, I try to find players that serve purposes.
Both ways are viable and obviously work for us.
But either way, whether projecting or not, we don't see any 'value' till we see the numbers in action when the season begins.
Till then, you've got numbers in a computer and I have hopes. Both, 'valueless'.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm not trying to change the subject as I like the debate...
But Brian, I know how much you like your defense.
Your stomach must be turning at the thought of a Fielder, Raburn, Peralta, and Cabrera Tigers infield.

[bjoak]

There's no more 'value'. He was simply under picked or over picked. His 'value' remains the same.
Sure, we would like to see a progression in our picks. Each pick should be a quality of player less than the last one. It never is.
The truth is that half our roster will be replaced by faab players, including players in the first 10 rounds.
We thought last week that Victor Martinez had 3/4 round 'value'. Now, he is of no value at all. BUT, he was still under picked and over picked. The value is in the perception. It could be why you project players to do certain things and I do not. I, simply do not trust players enough to project them.
Where you see the 'value' of projecting a player at .302/94/25/102/10, I try to find players that serve purposes.
Both ways are viable and obviously work for us.
But either way, whether projecting or not, we don't see any 'value' till we see the numbers in action when the season begins.
Till then, you've got numbers in a computer and I have hopes. Both, 'valueless'.

You are like the NFBC's sub-prime mortgage bond salesman, except you'll be selling sub-prime team bonds to newbies made up entirely of players drafted between rounds 26-30, all the while telling them that their team isn't doomed to fail because rounds are just numbers and numbers don't mean anything and projections don't mean anything so there is no way you can project the team will collapse and they will lose all their money.

[bjoak]

I'm not trying to change the subject as I like the debate...
But Brian, I know how much you like your defense.
Your stomach must be turning at the thought of a Fielder, Raburn, Peralta, and Cabrera Tigers infield.

I'll be super concerned about the right side. And they still have Inge at 3rd? Even on defense his best year's are behind him. They should have spent their money sticking someone with a pulse at 3rd. My sour grapes comment is that I didn't want any of their pitchers anyway.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There's no more 'value'. He was simply under picked or over picked. His 'value' remains the same.
Sure, we would like to see a progression in our picks. Each pick should be a quality of player less than the last one. It never is.
The truth is that half our roster will be replaced by faab players, including players in the first 10 rounds.
We thought last week that Victor Martinez had 3/4 round 'value'. Now, he is of no value at all. BUT, he was still under picked and over picked. The value is in the perception. It could be why you project players to do certain things and I do not. I, simply do not trust players enough to project them.
Where you see the 'value' of projecting a player at .302/94/25/102/10, I try to find players that serve purposes.
Both ways are viable and obviously work for us.
But either way, whether projecting or not, we don't see any 'value' till we see the numbers in action when the season begins.
Till then, you've got numbers in a computer and I have hopes. Both, 'valueless'.

You are like the NFBC's sub-prime mortgage bond salesman, except you'll be selling sub-prime team bonds to newbies made up entirely of players drafted between rounds 26-30, all the while telling them that their team isn't doomed to fail because rounds are just numbers and numbers don't mean anything and projections don't mean anything so there is no way you can project the team will collapse and they will lose all their money.

Well, I thought we were having a good debate.
Never were numbers or projections belittled in my post.
Good luck, Brian

[Money]

I'm not trying to change the subject as I like the debate...
But Brian, I know how much you like your defense.
Your stomach must be turning at the thought of a Fielder, Raburn, Peralta, and Cabrera Tigers infield.

I'll be super concerned about the right side. And they still have Inge at 3rd? Even on defense his best year's are behind him. They should have spent their money sticking someone with a pulse at 3rd. My sour grapes comment is that I didn't want any of their pitchers anyway.

Mr. Cabrera will get every opportunity to play third. They obviously talked to him prior to making this move. Cabrera is the ultimate team player. Fielder is a class act. The Tigers can't lose here. Martinez still has two years left after this year. The owner is desperate to win, over paid, but I love it. Anyone who doesn't think the tigers significantly improved today is wrong in my opinion.

Not sure if you were talking about Tigers pitching, but there is plenty there to like.

BOOM, can't wait for opening day, my daughter and I have gone for years as it's our tradition that we will do forever. Got a little bit sweeter today!!!!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Offensively, a huge signing, both literally and figuratively speaking.
Defensively, a mess. They won't have a plus infielder.
But, nothing that can't be fixed. If Cabrera cannot cut it at 3b, he and Fielder can 1b/dh.
Peralta has played 3b before. And Santiago, a slick fielder, can be used at 2b/3b/ss.

When getting a chance to add a big bat like Fielder, get him, let the other pieces play out however they play out.

[Glenneration X]

Well, I thought we were having a good debate.
Never were numbers or projections belittled in my post.
Good luck, Brian

This is an interesting debate. I believe you are both right, but only in the limited context for which each of you are referring to the term "value". Doughy is looking at it in end-"value", what the actual worth of the player is when all is said and done. Bjoak on the other hand is looking at it in what the cost was to obtain that end-"value".

I suppose a fair analogy would be to compare it to a stock purchase. If both Bjoak and Doughy bought one share of stock in GM in the morning and at Wall Street's closing the stock was valued at $100 per share, the "value" of each of their shares would be that same $100. This is the way Doughy is looking at the term.

However, if Doughy bought the stock at the opening call at $50, while Bjoak bought the stock one hour later after a minor
dip at $40, he achieved greater "value" at the closing because he not only has that same $100 share of stock at the end of the day, but an additional $10 unspent. In fact, he has that greater "value" throughout the day once the transaction is made because he always has that additional $10 unspent.

In fantasy terms, the final stats of the player is the "value" of the actual stock at the end of the day. The round the player was taken was the initial cost to obtain that "value". The savings and increased "value" comes from the lower cost or in fantasy terms, later round, that same end-"value" (or in reality, "anticipated" end-value) was taken.

Doughy is solely looking at the actual "value" of the stock or player, Bjoak is looking at the actual "value" of the stock or player plus any savings.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Pretty good analogy, Glenn. Somehow, I lost 2/3 of a Maya which doesn't set right, but good job.
A little of my own numerish I do to see if I've had a good draft is the 10/465 test.
For some reason, the numbers 1-30 end up totaling 465. You would think that they would add up to 450 as in how many players are drafted, just to be simpatico for our drafts, but it doesn't.
Anyway, I look at the cheesy player rater and if I have 10 players on my roster that equal less than 465 in rankings on any given day during the year, I've had a extraordinary draft.
For instance, if the rankings of my players are 3, 16, 59, 65, 102, 105, 110 that is just seven players and already I am over the 465 threshold, so it was not a great draft.
On the basis that an average team would have a player ranked every 15th spot, their numbers could start adding up like this-
1, 16, 31, 46, etc. Those rankings would add up to 428 after eight players. We can consider that a little above average since we do have the number one player. 10 Players in 465 would be extraordinary given the progression.
10 is also 1/3 of my team. Mixing and matching the rest of the parts becomes more easily done. Especially when conceding that half my team will be dropped at some point of the season.
Anyway, a good test to try during the season, since the value becomes real then.

[bjoak]

There's no more 'value'. He was simply under picked or over picked. His 'value' remains the same.
Sure, we would like to see a progression in our picks. Each pick should be a quality of player less than the last one. It never is.
The truth is that half our roster will be replaced by faab players, including players in the first 10 rounds.
We thought last week that Victor Martinez had 3/4 round 'value'. Now, he is of no value at all. BUT, he was still under picked and over picked. The value is in the perception. It could be why you project players to do certain things and I do not. I, simply do not trust players enough to project them.
Where you see the 'value' of projecting a player at .302/94/25/102/10, I try to find players that serve purposes.
Both ways are viable and obviously work for us.
But either way, whether projecting or not, we don't see any 'value' till we see the numbers in action when the season begins.
Till then, you've got numbers in a computer and I have hopes. Both, 'valueless'.

You are like the NFBC's sub-prime mortgage bond salesman, except you'll be selling sub-prime team bonds to newbies made up entirely of players drafted between rounds 26-30, all the while telling them that their team isn't doomed to fail because rounds are just numbers and numbers don't mean anything and projections don't mean anything so there is no way you can project the team will collapse and they will lose all their money.

Well, I thought we were having a good debate.
Never were numbers or projections belittled in my post.
Good luck, Brian

No, I was really just trying to be humorous, but I have to admit that this morning I read it over before your response and thought, Jeez, that doesn't sound the way I intended. I should have thrown in some emoticons or something!
Writing doesn't always have the same tone as the voices in our heads. Sorry about that.

[bjoak]

I'm not trying to change the subject as I like the debate...
But Brian, I know how much you like your defense.
Your stomach must be turning at the thought of a Fielder, Raburn, Peralta, and Cabrera Tigers infield.

I'll be super concerned about the right side. And they still have Inge at 3rd? Even on defense his best year's are behind him. They should have spent their money sticking someone with a pulse at 3rd. My sour grapes comment is that I didn't want any of their pitchers anyway.

Mr. Cabrera will get every opportunity to play third. They obviously talked to him prior to making this move. Cabrera is the ultimate team player. Fielder is a class act. The Tigers can't lose here. Martinez still has two years left after this year. The owner is desperate to win, over paid, but I love it. Anyone who doesn't think the tigers significantly improved today is wrong in my opinion.

Not sure if you were talking about Tigers pitching, but there is plenty there to like.

BOOM, can't wait for opening day, my daughter and I have gone for years as it's our tradition that we will do forever. Got a little bit sweeter today!!!!

Just to clarify, I think there is no doubt the Tigers will be improved this year. That does not mean, necessarily, however, that it's a good signing. Consider the following:

Will they be better this year? Most likely. Will they be better in nine years before Mo Vaughn, er, Fielder comes off the books? Almost certainly not.

Is Prince an upgrade at 1st? Yes. Was it the position at which they most needed an upgrade? No.

Are they more likely to win the division? Yes. Were they already likely to win the division? Probably.

Will the team be better? Yes. Will their pitchers be better, particularly for fantasy purposes? Probably not.

A note about the pitchers. This is probably the most perfect or least perfect place to say I am trying to get value out of the pitchers I draft (by the end of the season). So saying I don't want their pitchers is not the same as saying I wouldn't take Verlander for free. I'm saying I don't want to use a second round pick on him and I want to even less now that he has no infield (yes, I know he's a flyball pitcher; that doesn't mean he doesn't get any groundballs). Basically, I liked their pitchers less than others already and since most people pay no attention to defense or think it has no effect on ERA (false) I will definitely like them less than others now.

[rockitsauce]

[quote="Glenneration X]

This is an interesting debate. I believe you are both right, but only in the limited context for which each of you are referring to the term "value". [/quote]

As I was reading this thread I was thinking the same thing, they're BOTH right...and then Glenn came along and already pointed it out w/ a much better explanation than what I was thinking. To me it was like asking them the capital of Louisiana.

Bjoak would say, "Baton Rouge".

Dough would say, "Red Stick".