HellBoy and Mr. Fister

[DOUGHBOYS]

Boredom has settled in while I study.
I am going through pitchers and just thought I'd let you in on some of my thoughts. I have been looking at two pitchers who will go in double digit rounds of most drafts.
Jeremy Hellickson and Doug Fister.
It's funny, last year, Hellickson was a hot commodity. A little like the Matt Moore of this year. He was going to be all that and a bag of Doritos. He didn't exactly disappoint, but at the same time, he didn't exactly dominate either.
Let's see what Shandler says...
'Big-time prospect put up big-time ERA and WHIP, so what's the problem? DOM and CTL decay left him with soft skills set that was masked by low hit rate and high strand rate. Minor League pedigree suggests that if no injury involved, the skills should at least partially return, but be careful. Note the ERA.xERA chasm as opponents overbid.'

That was a fancy way of saying that Hellickson will go too quickly in this years draft and that the dominance he showed in the minors didn't translate to the Bigs. He even gives you a mental pat on the back for not taking him too high. That Ron, he's such a nice guy.
Like Moore, Hellickson came up late in the season and impressed. In his first full season, I thought he was impressive. In the minors, as Shandler intimated, he dominated. Averaging over a strike out an inning at every level, he deserved the Matt Moore status. What impressed me, and apparently not Shandler, is that he had the wherewithall (shuddup spell checker!) to adapt to Big League hitters. He found out early that he couldn't blow away these hitters, so he became more of a pitcher than a thrower. Shandler only sees numbers. I saw Hellickson pitch a lot last year and was impressed with his bulldog mentality. Of course, this falls into Shandlers 'strand rate', which to me is a silly rate. Some pitchers can throw out of the stretch better, some pitchers with runners on base have more intensity, the strand rate is nonsense.

Anyway, I like Hellickson and will draft him. He'll improve on his strikeouts because he is a pitcher that is still learning and will have more faith in his stuff as he continues his progression. Believe me, a lot of times I just say, 'Screw you, Shandler!', after reading a blurb. This, is another of those times.
Draft him, Hellickson is a good addition to a team.

What about Doug Fister?
Would it surprise you to learn that Fister had almost 30 more k's than Hellickson?
I've liked Fister, but never liked the team he pitched for or his low strike out rates. I have always had a soft spot for tall pitchers though. They seem to have an advantage in that they look like they're delivering the ball closer to the plate.

Fister enjoyed a renaissance in joining the Tigers. He looked like a different pitcher in that not only was he accumulating wins, but strikeouts to boot.
Let's see what Shandler says about Mister Fister-
'Ended up 8-1, 1.79 ERA in 70 ip in DET, along with a freakish low0.6 Ctl and surprising 7.3 Dom. Seven starts were vs Cle, min and KC; Can he do it vs tougher competition? Nothing in his history points to maintaining this level, and regression, alone will pull him back to earth. But there had been seeds of a higher ceiling. Chase, but don't overbid'.

Translating for Shandler- He was lucky, don't expect him to keep it up.
And yes, I will have a post coming out about 'regression' which seems to be a given in numerish circles for any player who has a break out season.

Fister is a Mark Buehrle type pitcher. He may be a little better for real life than fantasy.
Still, he pitches in a rotten division, he obviously likes pitching for the Tigers, and more important for us, he's dependable.
Fister does not 'blow up' like even the best pitchers do. Last year, in 32 games, his biggest 'blow up' was a 5 2/3 inn/6er.
It's hard to find pitchers that we can throw at home and on the road against any team this late in a draft, Fister can do that.

Shandler expects 'regression'. Duh. It's easy to expect that after a player has a wonderful year. But, even with a small fall back, Fister remains as a highly regarded pitcher, at least by me.
So again, thanks Shandler, but no thanks.

So, how will I rank these fellas?
I won't.
I'll put them in the same grouping and decide in each draft who would best blend with the pitchers I get from the single rounds. If taking steadier pitchers like Verlander and Lester as my top two pitchers, I may go for the more promising, but less counted on, Hellickson. If taking Strasburg and Moore in the first few rounds, the stability of Fister is craved.
Both though, are given more credit in their abilities for the upcoming year by me, than Shandler.

So there you have it. A study of two pitchers.
Shandlers thoughts are seldom my thoughts. He puts numerish to everything and we hardly ever mesh in our thinking. To tell the truth, I've never put the time in to find out what DOM or CTL or some of his other numerish even entails. I don't care to. I can see if a pitcher is dominating just like I can see if he has control. The practice of putting it in a rate is great for some folks, not me.
It's the beauty of this hobby. We can know every number, rate, and percentage known to man, and still fail. Sometimes, I think I go into a draft with too many numbers, which has to be worse than too few.
As a whole, my head is a lot more comfortable empty, than full.
It's a little like going to a bar and getting the numbers from three different girls. Trying to keep those numbers in your head is tough, some times, it's best to just remember the number of the girl that most impressed.

[rockitsauce]

So glad to hear of someone else who has no idea what the frick all those abbreviations are in Shandler's book I also don't care and don't believe everything the "experts" say anyways. Glenn already brought up some valid points in his Countdown as to why their advice ain't so great. Lets face it, we're all taking wild stabs in the dark from time to time and no one can predict injuries.

I guess I am the anti-Gekko...I get the MLB package and I WATCH the games just can't get the info I need out of a boxscore. Obviously that doesn't guarantee success b/c Mark is definitely one of the more successful players here in NFBC...me..uh, not so much no matter, different strokes for different folks. I know that winning $ is a huge incentive for lots of guys, but if I didn't love baseball I wouldn't be here.

May as well try fantasy golf