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Brown Hair, Blueballs, and Red Schoendienst

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 11:13 am
by DOUGHBOYS
We are a young, virile, 25 year old male. Rich beyond our wildest dreams. Good looking and ready to find a good looking gal.
We've already gone through our pre-game. The clothes are tight and show off our physique, the cologne is perfect, hair groomed nicely. We're ready for the game!
The first inning goes well as the place is filled with lovely girls.
The second inning, we are receiving smiles, we know that we are getting some attention.
The third inning, we are paring down the field, looking for 'The One.
The fourth inning, we chat with the final four. A brunette, blonde, redhead, and a brown haired girl.
The fifth inning, we make the choice, the brown haired girl has a smile that lights up a room and legs that never seem to stop.
The sixth inning, it goes well, the conversation is great and the body language looks right to get 'lucky'
The seventh inning, back to our place for a little drinking and private wooing.
The eighth inning, things are getting hot and heavy. The bedroom is a mere few feet away in distance and emotion.
The ninth inning, BRING IN THE CLOSER!

No really, another guy comes in and gets to 'close the deal'. How fair is that? I'm so glad we don't have closers in real life!
These guys get three outs after the starter gets 24, and the closer is the one who feels the rush of being on the mound for the victory. The starter? A pat on the back and blueballs. (shuddup spellchecker, you know what they are!)
I hate closers. They are the tight ends of fantasy football. A necessary evil who could make or break your season.
40 % of all FAAB money goes for closers and 31 % of all stats are made up and yes, I made up both those stats, but it wouldn't surprise me if the first one is close to true.

Right now, we have around 25 'secure' closers in baseball. We have five teams that are in flux, not really knowing which direction they'll go in.
In my mind, we don't have 25 secure closers. We have two.
Sure, by the beginning of the season there will be 30 guys who have the gig. Each feeling secure that they'll have the job for the year. We know better than that.
Long term injury will knock any of these guys out of the role, so that scenario and likelihood is completely discounted.
Now, lets give each closer a four week injury. And, during this time, their replacement comes in and does a stellar job and does not blow a save.
Under this scenario, there are only two relievers who are certain to get their jobs back when returning from injury.
No, it's not the number one reliever off the board, Craig Kimbrel. A possibility looms that Venters was so good that Kimbrel is relegated to an eighth inning role till Venters is done with his roll.

The two pitchers would be Mariano Rivera and Jonathon Papelbon.
Mo, because he is an old dog who cannot go back to doing eighth inning tricks.
Papelbon, because he still has dominance and the Phils have three more years to live with him.

In a nutshell, this is why closers are tough. Every year 10-15 die and go to closer heaven. It's not usually a long term gig. For most, a three to five year run before shriveling up and dying on the vine.
Even at that, I won't be targeting Rivera or Papelbon. It'll be a thought for them, a notation, but little else.
There are no secrets for drafting closers. It's a job where guys like Mark Melancon, and Ryan Franklin, and Brandon Lyon have success.
In hitting terms, that's like Craig Counsell hitting 20 home runs.

It's a lucky category. Heath Bell could have a 0.00 ERA and still get beat in saves 42-30 by Carlos Marmol who blew six saves to boot. We don't know if we should get our closers from winning teams or losing teams. We look at the peripherals, the situations, and wait as long as we can in our drafts, and wince as we say there names.
Ironically, Like the brown haired girl, we won't know if it was good for us till the climax.

PS- Please forgive the subject line, I've always liked that Schoendienst name and another color made the subject look better :)