NFBC Message Boards

Some strike out stuff-


23 pitchers had at least 190 strike outs last year.
Only three of those pitchers will be available by the 10th round.
Anibal Sanchez, Brandon Morrow, and Ryan Dempster.
Add Gio Gonzalez to that group and they also share the highest WHIP's.
That is why they are available so late.

19 hitters struck out at least 140 times.
Only Matt Kemp hit over .300 despite the strike outs.
Only Michael Bourn hit less than 10 homers.
Of those 19 hitters, every hitter had at least 50 walks to go along with all the strike outs, except one.
Miguel Olivo only had 20 walks, a seven to one k/bb ratio.

Of these players with 140 strike outs, only Kemp is a first rounder for 2012.

Some comparables-

BJ Upton is going high in the second round of some drafts.
Here's a comparable with Danny Espinoza who has positionality and 10 rounds later....
Upton- ....243/82/23/81/36
Espinoza- .236/72/21/66/17

Mark Teixeira is trending down, Stanton trending up.
Despite this, Teixeira goes higher in most drafts.
Teixeira- .248/90/39/111/4
Stanton-. .262/79/34/87/5

Do we want more average or power from our 1b.
The quick answer is power.
Is that the case?
Adrian Gonzalez goes before Prince Fielder in most drafts.
Gonzalez- .338/108/27/117/1
Fielder-.. .299/95/38/120/1

Josh Willingham had 488 at bats last year.
Evan Longoria had 483 at bats last year.
Willingham- .246/69/29/98/4
Longoria-.. .244/78/31/99/3

Michael Morse is going as high as the fifth round
His positionality is a plus.
But there's a guy later with similar numbers...
Morse- .303/73/31/95/2
Ortiz- ..309/84/29/96/1

At the same time positionality is discounted in another case.
Billy Butler- .291/74/19/95/2
Carlos Lee...275/66/18/84/4

here's a useless nugget rolling around in my head.

I averaged out the auction values from as many 15 team mixed, 260 budget auction results as I could find. Then I tiered the averages in groups of 15 and took the average of each tier (i.e. round one, round two, round three...) Did that make sense? I turned auction prices into an average round price for each round. Then I took a player from each round 1-23 at the average price for the round and came up with a spend of $256 for a full roster. Maybe the auction is just a draft in disguise.

There's so much temptation at auction to try to do something out of the box...because you can. In a draft it's tougher to do something funky because no matter how much you're willing to give up later picks, you still can get only 1 first round pick. Stars and scrubs isn't an option like it is in auction.