Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

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DOUGHBOYS
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:36 am

During the two Main Event drafts, there were players I knew that would never see the light of day on my team.
They were not shitlisters. They were hurt.
Carl Crawford, Michael Morse, and Drew Storen.

Boston swallowed Crawford up last year. He got eaten up, swallowed, and regurgitated for this year.
Yet, in early drafts, he was still taken in around the third round. An incredibly poor discount for such an horrendous year. Adam Dunn had the same type year and was discounted from the fourth round to between the 12th and 16th rounds.
After it was apparent that Crawford's injury was more serious, he fell into the fourth and fifth rounds. This is where his performance from last year alone should have dropped him. But, some drafters like to hold onto the past and think Crawford still has first round possibilities.

Morse received no discount at all. Part of this was the Nationals fault. They soft-selled the injury making it seem like it was relatively harmless. Now, with the setback, his owners look like they'll have to wait even longer before getting Morse bat back in their fantasy lineups.
The soft-sell on injuries from major league clubs infuriates fantasy owners. Morse drafters picked Morse at full price and at most, they look to get five months of production.

Drew Storen fell under a spring training rule for me.
If any pitcher hasn't made an appearance in spring training for a week leading up to the Main Event, I won't draft him.
There is too much of a chance that a team is hiding an injury. Or worse, that a minor injury is really a major injury.

Seldom do I take any injured player on draft day. It's a double whammy. We're wasting a bench spot carrying this player and at the same time a setback in the player's progress could make a decision to drop the player imminent.
I have to admit that I went against my own beliefs and drafted an injured player this year. Tim Hudson.
He came at a deep discount. From the 10th round to the 16th round.
And I wasn't particularly sold on drafting him until I saw an interview with him. He said that he had been living and pitching with back problems over the years and that the difference in every day living was extraordinarily different since the surgery.
He seemed so upbeat about the coming year that I made a mental note that I could make an exception in my injury rule for him.

We all handle injuries differently.
Is Hudson any different than Storen, Crawford or Morse?
Not right now.
Right now, they are all hurting everybody that drafted them.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

G1AZM
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 1:31 pm

Re: Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by G1AZM » Wed Apr 11, 2012 5:22 pm

Morse was not selected at full price at all. Before his injury, his ADP was around 68 and I took Morse at pick 93 in your 2nd weekend draft. 25 picks at that stage of the draft was certainly a discount. My decision was Morse or Cuddyer and I already had Cuddyer in XII which influenced the decision some as well. Right now with the setback it looks like my "discount" gamble isn't going to pay off, but if I do get 5 months out of him it won't hurt me horribly either.

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Apr 11, 2012 10:03 pm

I've got a less than one round difference on Morse, but I won't pick nits.
You may have fell victim to the 'Eggs in one Basket' thinking. We all do.
After the first Main Event, I look at my team and determine who I would or would not feel uncomfortable with on both teams.
The name that shot out at me was Dexter Fowler. I've never been able to figure him out. I was impressed that he had his off season training with Kemp and that Kemp predicted big things for him after working out with him.
Still, there is always uneasiness with this kind of thinking, because it isn't batter vs. pitcher thinking, it is that Fowler has worked hard, but not necessarily increased his baseball skills. So, I dropped him a bit and only looked to take him if he fell in my lap and begged to play on my team.

I've taken Morse in the shape of other players in past years. It drives me crazy. And that, is a short drive.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:09 am

Drew Storen owners get the 'good' news that Storen isn't out for the year, just till the All-Star break.
Personally, this news may be worse for some of my teams (if Storen were on them) than Tommy John.
At least with Tommy John, we would clear up the roster space automatically. Now, the angst for some owners presents itself.
1. Should I drop him and clear a roster spot?
2. What if I do and my chief competition gets him (This early, we don't know who our chief competition will be)
3. What if he comes back as a set-up guy because the new closer has been lights out?
4. What if he has set backs?
5. Should I drop him and possibly cost my chief opposition alot more faab on a guy not even guaranteed to get saves?

Storen will be dropped in a few leagues. The fellas who drop him will ask themselves all the above questions.
So will the owners who keep Storen.

Tough decision.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

G1AZM
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 1:31 pm

Re: Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by G1AZM » Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:50 am

Yes, the eggs in one basket made my decision to take Morse over Cuddyer pretty clear. Especially considering that I drafted Cuddyer on Fri night in XII and watched Darvish drill him on the hand less than an hour later. It appeared Cuddyer would be fine from the early news, but at the same time I didn't want to put all my "eggs" in his basket less than 20 hours later in our Main Event draft.

Great early start with your team. Sitting 2nd OA with only 1 save is an impressive start. I'll enjoy every minute competing with you and everyone else all year.

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Ando
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Re: Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by Ando » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:51 am

Make that a max of 3.5 months of production from Morse.
"Luck is the residue of design."

-Branch Rickey

DOUGHBOYS
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Re: Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:32 am

I'm looking forward to it too, G1AZM. You snaked me with the Wilhelmson pick in our draft :D

It looks like I've jinxed Storen and Morse since my initial post.
Or maybe Washington was guilty of soft selling both injuries.
Especially since they had 'an inkling' that Storen would not need Tommy John.
Just in case it's a jinx though, Crawford owners should be very concerned!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Zero Stats...But I Got a Great Discount!

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:39 am

Just one more thing about the soft selling of injuries....

David Wright goes to see a hand specialist to get a better understanding of what is needed to get back in the lineup as soon as possible.
While this is happening, Manager Terry Collins tells reporters that he 'expects' Wright to be in the lineup in a couple of days.
Incredible.
Collins words mean absolutely nothing. He can 'expect' all he wants, what he gets could be all together different.
It is word choices like these that leave some fantasy owners to want to post stick figures hurting themselves in many ways. :)
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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