First Conception, Then Perception

[DOUGHBOYS]

Perception is reality.
No, not really.

Sometimes during a season, we all make a fatal flaw. We think that ball players will think like we think. Ball players do not think like we think. This flaw is due to our 'fandom'. A bad perception.
If the Yankees lose a three game series and our pitcher is set to face them next, we may think, 'Oh Man, they're pissed!'
They're not.
They're struggling.

If the Mets beat the Braves in games that the Braves should have won, the Braves aren't looking for revenge. That is fan speak. Sure, the Braves want to win, but they want to win EVERY game.
When it's pitcher vs. hitter, it's business as usual.

Our perceptions are clouded on the fantasy side as well. The NFBC has an adp posted leading into the Main Drafts. The adp is based on Slo Draft leagues. I draft differently in Slo Draft leagues than I would for a Main. Since there are no pickups during the season, versatility in players gets a jump on my lists. I'll also be a little more conservative than I would with a faab team.
There are also many, many, many players playing just for a league win. They'll punt categories. They'll do goofy things like not take a pitcher, or not take a hitter till double digit rounds. All serving to skew the adp a bit.

Off subject a bit, I'm beginning to think that punting saves for Slo Draft leagues is not a bad idea. Chances are we will lose one or both closers during the season anyway. Punting saves would remove all doubt about relievers and improve offenses and starters. Of course I say this in the midst of a tough year on closers. Next year may be our polar opposite and every closer will maintain their jobs most of the year. I doubt it.

Getting back to perceptions...
Sometimes we look at our faab bids with disgust. We'll bid $80 on a player that receives no other bids. In our minds, it was a solid bid. We needed that player at that position and we wanted to make sure we won that player.
Still, we're haunted.
Why do I think so much more of this player than 14 other leaguemates.
Are they smarter?
Are they stupid?
Damn, I could have saved $79!
All these thoughts go through our minds.

If it bothers you that much, you don't have to look at the second place bids. We can't do that though.
We are drawn. We have to know.
If driving you totally crazy, I do have a trick you can do.
Say for instance, you really want Santiago Casilla. At the same time, you're tired of those unopposed large bids.
Put a bid in for say $250 on Casilla dropping a player.
Then, put in another bid of $249 on Casilla dropping another player.

This will give league mates the perception that your bid won by $1. The drawback is that you won't know the REAL second place bid.
But, if done two or three times during the year, league mates will think you are an incredible bidder!

Our perceptions manifest themselves most before and during a draft.
Brett Gardner had an adp of 89.
I found this incredible.
He's a judy. No more, no less!
Worse, he is a judy who will bat near the end of the lineup and sometimes sit vs lefties.
So, we've got a player who is a judy, hitting ninth, and sits vs most lefties.
In a word, yeecchh!
Chris Young, Corey Hart, and a little less speedier judy in Ichiro all had adp's after Gardner.
Coco Crisp had an adp of 144 and had the same amount of stolen bases as Gardner last year.
Largest difference between the two players are the teams they play for.
The Yankees are sexy. The thinking is that most games, Gardner will have rbi fall in his lap.
That perception is just plain wrong.
Gardner will hit in the first and ninth spot in the batting order.
Two places that do not lend themselves to rbi.
Gardner had 34 extra base hits last year....and just 36 rbi...

Perception isn't reality.
It's just my reality, or your reality, or the reality of whoever's eyes those perceptions look through.
In fantasy baseball, perception is a bitch.

[Money]

Nice write up Dan. Everyone drives themselves crazy with FAAB wasted dollars. Before I beat myself up I wait until the next morning when Tom posts all the bids. I bid 233 for Cassilla, the second bid was 76. I thought how could I possibly mis read it that badly? This morning all the bids come out and 233 is right in line with most winning bids, the 76 was the lowest he went for in any (NFBC XII) league. Now I feel better.