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Lets take a look at who would be the First Round Picks for next years drafts if the season were to end today, May 9.
No Pitchers have thoroughly dominated as yet to be considered a first rounder.
So for now, Pitchers are out.

Because of the past AND the present-
Matt Kemp
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Gonzalez
Hanley Ramirez (.220 forgiven, the only 6/6/20/20 player in baseball)
Ian Kinsler
Ryan Braun

Because of the present-
Josh Hamilton

Because of the past only-
Albert Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Robinson Cano
Troy Tulowitzki
Joey Votto
Jose Bautista
Justin Upton

Despite the Injuries-
Evan Longoria

This is very similar to the first round of many drafts this year. As it should be. A month should not change things drastically. Faor the most part, it is Jacoby Ellsbury and Prince Fielder leaving the top 15, being replaced by two Rangers, Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton. And really, with Hamilton's injury past, drafters still may feel more comfortable drafting Fielder ahead of Hamilton, understandable.

The injury to Ellsbury will sour a lot of folks on taking him with a first rounder next year, especially since he was off to a slow start before. For now, the Longoria injury is forgivable since he was off to a great start.
The 'Old Reliables', Pujols, Tulo, Votto, Bautista, AdGonzalez, and Upton, have all not been up to par, but nobody has made a big push from the lower rounds to pass what these players will probably give us over the next few months.

So far, Curtis Granderson, Dustin Pedroia, Fielder, and Jay Bruce look to have the best shots of moving up. If Starlin Castro can show some power, he may even have a chance at moving up.
Reyes, Stanton, McCutchen, Hosmer, and Teixeira show little interest in moving up to first round standards.

I'll try and update this thread each month, so that we can see the changes from month to month and the effects it may have for drafting next year.

It is July 10, two months later.
A lot changes in two months.

First, lets talk about injuries and the effects on next year's drafts....
Matt Kemp stays in the first round. He may not be the consensus over all first pick, but he stays in the first round. He has not earned a injury prone tag yet.
Troy Tulowitzki falls to Evan Longoria's former status of being available around the bottom of the first round and possibly top of the second in some drafts.
Longoria takes on Tulo's status of being called injury prone. He drops to the second round next year. Both look to be risky picks no matter the round taken.
Ellsbury will not be taken in the first round and possibly not in the second. Where he lands will be dependent on his play when/if he comes back after the All Star break.

The players that will be taken in the first half of the first round next year?
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Bautista
Joey Votto
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Robinson Cano

Kemp's injury withstanding, these are stable players that contestants can count on.
After this top echelon, the rest of the first round becomes a hodgepodge of how much you believe in a players ability to either comeback from this year, maintain stats from this year, or come back from injury next year.
How much do you believe in Albert Pujols returning to lofty status?
Does Adrian Gonzalez come back in the second half to solidify being a first round pick?
Unless Justin Upton has a super second half, it'll be tough to include him as a first rounder.

The up and comers or movers from lower rounds?
Andrew McCutchen moves from the second to first round.
Some are saying Mike Trout. It'd be tough for me to pull the trigger there. But, I'll bet somebody else will.
Where he goes will be predicated on second half play. Last year, Eric Hosmer had everything figured out too.
Saying Trout's name as a first round pick next year would be ballsy.
Josh Hamilton's status could be decided more on what happens during the off season. Signing with any team but the Rangers will most likely lower expectations for Hamilton.
He has cooled considerably since May, but serves as a reminder of what one hot player for a month can do to help a fantasy team.
David Wright has played his way back to first round status. At his position and with an even better second half, it is even possible he goes with the higher echelon and is drafted in the first half of the first round.

We also have the fringe first rounders from last year-
Jose Reyes
Ian Kinsler
Prince Fielder
Hanley Ramirez
Curtis Granderson
Dustin Pedroia

As of this day, here is where I see players being drafted for next year....

Higher echelon (in no particular order)-

Miguel Cabrera
Jose Bautista
Joey Votto
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Carlos Gonzalez
Robinson Cano

Mid-late rounders

Albert Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Andrew McCutchen
David Wright
Troy Tulowitzki
Ian Kinsler
Curtis Granderson
Prince Fielder

With this scenario, Tulo becomes the only 'risky' first round pick.It also leaves the door open for a lot of sexy second round picks.
Mike Trout
Adam Jones
Justin Upton
Jose Reyes
Hanley Ramirez
Dustin Pedroia
Evan Longoria
Josh Hamilton
Giancarlo Stanton
Jacoby Ellsbury

We haven't mentioned pitchers. And we won't.
Sure, some will sneak into the second and possibly first rounds.
This year's sexy first pitcher was Clayton Kershaw. Joe Blanton has more wins than Kershaw.
This isn't to belittle Kershaw. He's a fine pitcher.
He has just become this year's Felix Hernandez. A pitcher with good peripherals, but few wins in the bank.


When we draft a hitter near the top of drafts, we are, at the least, trying to cover four categories with one pick, and at best five categories.
Kershaw, or any other pitcher can only guarantee three categories if having a good year.
Saves are off the board and wins cannot be taken for granted. Ask Kershaw, or better yet, ask Cliff Lee.
Next year, I see most drafters holding off till the fourth round before taking a pitcher.
Kershaw, Verlander, Strasburg, and others will be taken before then, but as a rule most drafters will hold off on the pitching elite.

I'll update this thread again as we get closer to the end of the season.
Did I forget somebody?
Disagree?
Chime in if I've screwed this up

Trout in the first round? He gets strong consideration for #1 overall if he does 80% in the second half of what he's done in the first half ... season stats of 320/20/50 makes him a top 4 pick. Those numbers aren't a stretch, might be short-changing him.

Among the other youngsters, I think Starlin and Bryce are 2-3 years away from the first round. McCutcheon has a decent shot.

Thanks Kevin.
This thread is designed to get opinions and reactions.
I love Trout. Hell, it's hard not to, he's done everything.
He's the first player that's reminded me of Mantle since The Mick played.
That said, there are a lot of Missouri/Missouri drafters and even more drafters that don't want to get 'Hosmered' next year.
Trout wore down fast last year. It should be interesting to see how he fares down the stretch with a possible pennant chase.
I agree on Harper.
It hasn't been noted yet, but the real Harper is starting to break through a little.
He's barking at umpires and losing some of the cool he had earlier in the year.
Castro is on a team with few hitters now and for the next couple of years.

A poll by Greg asking if drafters would take Trout in the first round in 2013 would be informational and entertaining.

Did I miss on any other players?

have to agree with kevin on trout- dan, you are talking about who will get drafted- not who you would draft. many missou missou guys- me included- but not 15 in each draft. there will be at least 1 in each draft taking trout in 1st round.

btw- there is NO comparison to hosner because of the sb's. barring injury sb's don't sleep.

Mike and Kevin are right. A draft with 15 different minds, one, or probably more would take Trout.
Let's take Tulo and kick him where he has kicked his owners this year and put him in the second round.

Miguel Cabrera
Jose Bautista
Matt Kemp
Joey Votto
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Robinson Cano
Mike Trout
Albert Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Andrew McCutchen
David Wright
Ian Kinsler
Curtis Granderson
Prince Fielder

That looks to be the first round for next year at this time.
Brett Lawrie owners have to be a little disappointed.
They were expecting/hoping for numbers similar to Trout, especially if told that Lawrie would be leading off going into the All Star break.
Instead, he has two more stolen bases than ARod.

Has Lawrie done enough to be a second round consideration for next year?

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Has Lawrie done enough to be a second round consideration for next year?

He has not. Overdrafted this year and may slide next year.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Bautista
Matt Kemp
Joey Votto
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Robinson Cano
Mike Trout
Albert Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Andrew McCutchen
David Wright
Ian Kinsler
Curtis Granderson
Prince Fielder

List looks good. Adrian will fall out of 1 unless he hits close to 20 HRs in the second half. Wright could slide into the next round too unless you believe he's going to hit well over 300 next season ... or if Lowy is in the draft.

Glenn is saying 'Golly Gee! Why does this have to happen to the Mets?'
While secretly plotting taking over the fantasy world with a healthy bid of Miguel Batista on 27 of his 36 teams