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RBI Guy

Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:04 pm
by DOUGHBOYS
There should be some saber metrics way of determining RBI guys from players who are not.
Todd Zola, get on that, willya? :D
Adam Dunn has 38 home runs and 88 runs batted in. Dunn is not an rbi guy. He is a guy who hits a lot of home runs. The rbi are merely a side effect.
This year, Robinson Cano is not an rbi guy. Only 11 players have more home runs than Cano.
40 Players have more rbi.
Although Derek Jeter is having a superlative year and the Yankees have a bruising lineup, Cano has only knocked in 43 Yankees, while homering himself home 27 times.
THAT, is a bad rbi year.

Miguel Montero is a monster rbi guy.
His 14 homers are about half that of Cano. Yet, playing on a National League and farther down the lineup, Montero has more rbi than Cano.
Montero has done this by being a better hitter with the bases occupied.
Montero's average over the season is .279
With runners on, it is 308
With runners in scoring position, it is .357
With the bases loaded, it is .455
Montero hasn't gotten the press that other catchers have gotten this year.
Ruiz, Molina, Santana, Mauer, Napoli, and Lucroy were all touted either before or during the season. None have as many rbi as Montero. Only Buster Posey has more from the catching position.

It may seem like I'm berating Cano.
I'm not.
If so, I would be berating his position, or the so called 'hitters' who play there more.
The 'hitters' that make up the middle infield portion of our fantasy rosters.
You see, before Hanley Ramirez moved back to shortstop, at 70 rbi, Cano still leads all middle infielders in rbi.
Amazing in that going into September, not one true middle infielder has more than 70 rbi.
Last year, three players with middle infield credentials finished the season with over 100 rbi, including Cano.
There is little chance that any middle infielder besides Hanley reaches that plateau this year.
Posey with 80, Montero with 74, and Pierzynski with 70, have reached 70 rbi from a more difficult position and a smaller player pool.

Trvor Plouffe has knocked in 22 Twins other than himself this year.
Himself has knocked in himself 19 times.
He 'accomplishes' this by hitting 16 solo homers.
Plouffe has come to the plate 80 times with runners in scoring position and has 21 rbi in those situations.

Aramis Ramirez has come to the plate 121 times with men in scoring position and has 59 rbi in those situations.
But, my favorite rbi guy is a guy who is getting flak for having a bad year.
Adrian Gonzalez is fifth in rbi this year. Yet, he has only 16 home runs.
David Ortiz who was lauded for a splendid year before his injury had 23 home runs, but just 60 rbi.
Gonzalez is an animal with runners on base.
Look at this-
With nobody on, he is a .266 hitter.
Runners on, his average leaps to .338
Put those runners in scoring position and he is hitting .396!
.417 with the bases loaded.
Gonzalez has come to bat 139 times with runners in scoring position and delivered 78 rbi.
Now THAT, is an RBI Guy.

Re: RBI Guy

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:32 am
by Rainiers
Guess who is second in the American League to Agon with a two-out RBI total of 48.

He also has driven in more runs on the road than any one in all of Major League Baseball...55. More than Hamilton, Cabrera, Agon or any National Leaguer.

Overall, this guy is batting only .252 with a pathetic OPS of .721

But with RISP he hits .352 with an OPS of 1.035...

He plays half his games at Safeco, so like all Mariner hitters he gets little respect. But even with just 77 RBIs total, he fits my definition of an RBI guy.

Re: RBI Guy

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:59 pm
by ToddZ
People much smarter than me have done some in-depth work on this sort of thing.

Bottom line is RBI are a crapshoot, much like wins, but for whatever reasons, it is cool to point point out wins are on some level out of control of the pitcher but you get lambasted with the straw man "get out from behind a spreadsheet and watch a game you fatass" when you dare suggest clutch is a myth.

I think we all can agree RBI are a function of runners on base and BAw/RISP.

Runners on base is the aspect most point out as the luck element or lineup dependent.

But BAw/RISP is also luck. Any variance between your BA and your BAw/RISP is just happenstance, when you happened to get your knocks and when you happened to hit an at 'em ball.

If you look at BAw/RISP year by year for players, it is wildly inconsistent.