NFBC Message Boards

Every year we go through the same drafting process. Each site and every book has the same list of usual suspects as their top draftees at each position. Then, we pick our favorites, our 'sleepers', our 'value picks', whatever we want to call them.
The lists that these sites give, are based on past performance. Especially performances that are the most recent.
When these lists are derived, one sites list looks pretty much like another sites list and one publication looks like another publications list.
These lists are entertaining to us, in that we can judge in our own minds, how right or wrong they are. These lists won't have a wonderkid like Trout or Harper coming from nowhere because they are built on past performance, not future reckonings.
These same lists are never judged at the end of the year because, well, they make the list look stupid.
And, we are stupid.
I need go no further than the list I respect most, the NFBC pre-season rankings.
Let's go to the position of strength- First Base.
Traditionally, first base is the pillar of our team. A power source with average. A four category player that is dependable and seldom gets injured.
The first baseman is the Mayor of our team, while all others are merely on the town council.

In our rankings, we had these strong boys ranked from 1 on down

Pujols
Gonzalez
Votto
Fielder
Teixeira
Hosmer
Konerko
Berkman
Reynolds
Freeman
Hart
Morales
Goldschmidt

You get the idea. These guys were going to be the cornerstone of our teams in March.
BUT, the difference between March and October in fantasy baseball is the difference between guessing and knowing.
We now know that of that long list of home run hitting first basemen, not one would lead all first basemen in homers.
Worse, the second most productive home run hitter is not there.
Neither is the third.
Or fourth.
We are a stupid lot, aren't we?
And we think we're so smart.
The leading home run hitters that are first base eligible for this year are:
Edwin Encarnacion- 42 homers
Adam Dunn- 41 homers
Adam LaRoche- 32 homers
Ike Davis- 31 homers
Chris Davis- 31 homers

We could give ourselves a break and say that these players are as well-rounded as Popeye's girl friend Olive Oyl, but still, we're stupid.
At least Fielder, Gonzalez, and Pujols had the decency to get 100 rbi to make us look a little better.
What's this all mean?
Nothing.
Only that nobody is always right.
And somebody is usually wrong.
Nobody is a 'real expert'.

We have a hobby that is perfect.
We keep our 'rights' and we get to either live with our 'wrongs' or drop them for a potential right every Sunday.
It just so happens that most were wrong about first basemen for 2012.
Now, instead of the cornerstone of our teams, they are question marks.
This was illustrated in the Pre-Mature League draft where only three first basemen were taken in the first round.
In the past, six or seven first basemen was the norm.
This is what happens when wiseguys are stupid.
And a position like first base goes from being top heavy, to very, very deep.

Keep em coming Dan, these are great!!

Miggy was 1B eligible, although most drafted him as a 3B.

First triple crown since YAZ!! About time the this generation got to see a TRIPLE CROWN WINNER!!!

You're right, Joe.
I was gonna add a blurb about Miggy at the end of the piece about him being 1b, and moving up a few spots in drafts because of 3b eligibility, but omitted it. To me, he was being played and drafted more as a 3b. And this year, he'll be 3b only, another reason for less 1b in the first round.
It is swell to see a triple crown performance. It's an earned one too, with great numbers across the board and somebody nipping at his heels in batting average and homers.
It's great to see somebody get a big contract and fulfill as well.