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Do you believe in Mike Trout?
Do you believe in Chase Headley?
Do you believe in RA Dickey?
Do you believe in Jimmy Johnson?

Most of us are a 'what have you done for me lately' type. Still, the Missouri/Missouri in us, wants to see these players prove that last year wasn't a fluke. Players like these are what I call 'drifters'. Drifters are players who drift away from their adp in drafts. In one draft, Headley could go in the second. In another, the fourth. And believe me, the guy in the fourth will scream 'VALUE', unrealizing that other drafters are Missouri/Missouri'ng Headley.
Trout won't be a drifter. The stakes are too high for him. Plus, we've seen Headley at his worst. We haven't seen Trout at his worst. Only his best.

What about other players? Lets play with some numbers.
I hated Jon Lester last year. It seemed like Shawn Childs threw more strikes in a bowling alley than Lester did on the mound.
How bad of a year was it for Lester?
Look at this-

Lester- 205/9/166/1.38/4.82
The 205 innings qualifies him as an innings eater. If there is one thing we hate on our fantasy roster, it's an innings eater.
They bloat stats, well, except for Wins.
Lester pitched 23 innings per W. His WHIP and ERA killed our stats and left them bloated somewhere in the second division.

191/10/166/1.26/4.71
Here are the stats of a pitcher that'll go 10 rounds AFTER Lester.
He threw 14 less innings, one more W, same K's, better peripherals
This pitcher's name is Joe Blanton.
Blanton didn't have a breakout season. He just stayed healthy and does what Blanton does.
He piles up stats that won't lead you to a title, but at the same time, his owners last year were never found bloated on a beach.

Lester, as said, will be taken 10 rounds before Blanton. Lester is the reverse Chase Headley. Drafters will take him for his track record. Last year was an aberation. And some will stay away from Lester, again, to Missouri/Missouri him.
But let's bring another pitcher into the mix. Somebody that is more thought of than Blanton, less so than Lester.
Edwin Jackson.
Jackson is a steady as she goes type pitcher
190/10/168/1.22/4.03

We categorize Jackson as being around those numbers every year. If he gets lucky, he can win 13.
This is the reason Jackson, and Blanton for that matter, do not rise up in drafts, where Lester becomes a drifter.
Our mindset is to think of Jackson and Blanton as being stable with little chance of having that 'breakout' season.
While Lester threw like a girl last year, we know he has done better and is quite capable of putting up a 'reebreakout year'.

RA Dickey has been fantasy irrelevant for years. Now, all of a sudden, he's an ace.
Some are staying away no matter what. And at the same time, I've seen him go in the second round of drafts.
He tests the risk taker in us. Last year, he pitched in a pitchers park, in a pitchers division, in a pitchers league.
This year, that all changes.
And this brings me to what has become a favorite word for 'experts'.
Regression.
It's a pretty big word. It makes some folks seem smart.
But already, I have tired of this stupid word.
ANY player that had good stats last year gets to hear the 'R' word.
Especially guys like Trout, Headley, and Dickey.
There are few drafters that expect even the same numbers these players put up last year.
Career years ARE career years!
To minimize it by 'predicting' regression is like 'predicting' Neil Armstrong's next flight will not be as historical.
'Regression' is too easy. And it's used by smart people trying to sound smarter.
And a stupid guy like me is going to refuse to use the word. It's stupid, and so am I, SO THERE!

DOUGHBOYS wrote:'Regression' is too easy. And it's used by smart people trying to sound smarter.
And a stupid guy like me is going to refuse to use the word. It's stupid, and so am I, SO THERE!

I resemble that last remark!

You sound upset today Dan. Don't worry. I know for a fact a bag of Dorito's has been hidden from you. It is in the living room behind the picture of your mother-in-law. Go ahead and take it. I know you will feel better.

Two things...

1) 70% of players do worse than the preceding season. I look a this every year and the results are remarkably consistent.

2) I wrote what I am pasting below during the time that Jeremy Lin was tearing up the NBA

I was listening to one of the shows on the fantasy station on SiriusXM and the host said something like “Jeremy Lin will regress.” I was bothered by the use of the word regress, because to me it implies not so much not playing as well anymore, but having something a bit out of your control return to its statistical norm. So I looked up the definition of regress and sure enough, we were both right.

re·gress

v. re·gressed, re·gress·ing, re·gress·es

v.intr.

1. To go back; move backward.

2. To return to a previous, usually worse or less developed state.

3. To have a tendency to approach or go back to a statistical mean.

So here’s my favor. Can we please reserve use of the word regress for number three? Thanks.

Edwards Kings wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:'Regression' is too easy. And it's used by smart people trying to sound smarter.
And a stupid guy like me is going to refuse to use the word. It's stupid, and so am I, SO THERE!

I resemble that last remark!

You sound upset today Dan. Don't worry. I know for a fact a bag of Dorito's has been hidden from you. It is in the living room behind the picture of your mother-in-law. Go ahead and take it. I know you will feel better.

I am cranky today. I look forward to the Doritos. I smile to think of the mustache on my Mother In Law with invisible ink.
Thanks Wayne!

regression, value, sleeper, etc

if these terms bother you Dan, you are playing the wrong game!

Dan's "ON PACE" to eat a whole bag today.

ToddZ wrote:Dan's "ON PACE" to eat a whole bag today.

LOL

ToddZ wrote:Two things...

1) 70% of players do worse than the preceding season. I look a this every year and the results are remarkably consistent.

2) I wrote what I am pasting below during the time that Jeremy Lin was tearing up the NBA

I was listening to one of the shows on the fantasy station on SiriusXM and the host said something like “Jeremy Lin will regress.” I was bothered by the use of the word regress, because to me it implies not so much not playing as well anymore, but having something a bit out of your control return to its statistical norm. So I looked up the definition of regress and sure enough, we were both right.

re·gress

v. re·gressed, re·gress·ing, re·gress·es

v.intr.

1. To go back; move backward.

2. To return to a previous, usually worse or less developed state.

3. To have a tendency to approach or go back to a statistical mean.

So here’s my favor. Can we please reserve use of the word regress for number three? Thanks.

That's what I'm talking about!
Players are pounded with the word following a good year. Hardly anybody expects a repeat of a great year, yet we are riddled with re.. re... ugh.
To me, most players are on a teeter totter. They could have an up or down year or be like Steady Eddie Jackson (who would probably hate that nickname)
Not one writer said that Adam Dunn would have a progression last year. At best, like Todd said, that he would go back to a statistical mean.

NorCalAtlFan wrote:regression, value, sleeper, etc

if these terms bother you Dan, you are playing the wrong game!

They bother the hell right out of me.
I'm playing the right game.
I just have to fight the good fight to change the terminology (big word alert!)!!!

My own terminology-
I'm calling players like Trout, Headley, and Dickey 'teeters'
Players like Lester, Avila, and Ricky Romero 'totters'
This way, the direction of the coming season is implied in the name.
Most teeter totters will be 'drifters'.
And right now, I am picturing a person not familiar with this speak just shaking their head, wondering what the hell we're talking about.

Gene McCaffrey coined the term last year's bums and has done very well over the years loading up on them.