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Time to put my ass on the line and make my list of 10 players who will not live up to their draft pick in 2013.
Last year, I was pretty good at this. I got Prince Fielder wrong and Addison Reed wrong, but the others were mostly spot on and my shock pick, Roy Halladay, was good.
Anyway, I'll name the 10 players. There won't be any Russell Martin types and most will be top 10 round picks.

10. Mike Napoli-

Napoli did something no free agent has ever done during the off season. He lost out on over 30 million bucks. The purpose to being a free agent is to make money, right?
But, Napoli in effect failed his physical (ever notice how Roto World never says a player 'failed their physical?'
Anyway, playing for now a paltry few million, Napoli is still being taken too high in drafts.
His drafters mollify themselves in saying he won't catch. Forgetting that he PHYSICALLY CANNOT!
He's not resting his hip to hit.
It all smells of this being the end for Napoli as a viable choice.

9. Elvis Andrus

We love the name. Andrus hits second in one of baseball's best lineups and in one of baseball's best parks to hit in.
Perfect right? Wrong.
Andrus can be taken 10 rounds later under the alias of Alcides Escobar.
Andrus has hit eight home runs in three years.
THAT, my friends, is a judy. An expensive judy since he's being taken in the top six rounds of most drafts.
We're paying for the batting position and park, and Andrus is not validating.

8. Jered Weaver

Weaver has been one of my favorite pitchers to draft over the last few years. Last year, there were chinks. A little loss of velocity. Little owwies. He still put up good numbers.
Our game draws a lot of parallels to poker. And we've got to throw in some good hands sometimes. Weaver looks good to a lot of drafters.
I'm folding.

7. Brett Lawrie

If you read this part of the Message Boards a lot, you knew this was coming.
Staying healthy has become a skill in baseball. We love seeing players bounce around the park making diving catches and lunging for every possible ball. Except when it's our fantasy player. I like my fantasy player to be like Prince Fielder, effortless. And I mean that as a fantasy compliment.
Lawrie is the kid running with scissors while playing with matches. He'll get hurt. And we'll get burned.

6. Carl Crawford

I believe he is the only one that'll make this list three years in a row. I like Crawford, I do. But, he's coming off Tommy John and playing for a National League team. He also has other issues that may manifest themselves.
Still, after virtually not playing for two years, he still seems to warrant being picked in the mid rounds.
The speed is the draw. But speed is cheap this year, cheaper than CC.

5. CC Sabathia

And speaking of CC...Sabathia has been one of my favorite pitchers oover the last few years. Jered Weaver's poker analogy fits Sabathia as well. And, I love Sabathia's agent too. Over the last 10 years, Sabathia, according to his agents releases, has lost more weight than he weighs now. 20-30 pounds every year. We know better.
Sabathia has an elbow owwie, and when big guys over the age of 30 start getting owwies, they usually multiply.
I'll pass.

4, Mark Teixeira

The only thing that saves Teixeira from being Adam Dunn Lite, is that he's a switch hitter. The shift has gotten into Teixeira's head. Last year he promised to bunt to beat the shift. The mere threat means it's in his head. He didn't follow through either as he had no bunt hits.
Teixeira is drafted for his past, his park, and his lineup. If he played for the Marlins, a fate I wouldn't wish on anybody, he would be drafted closer to Yonder Alonso.
But, he doesn't. He plays for the Yankees and for that reason, he'll be taken ahead of Konerko and Freeman, and I'll just wonder why.

3. Alex Rios

There's no reason.
He never gives us a reason in why he periodically plays well and then not.
I won't give him a reason either.
Rostering Rios is like that cat on your lap. Purring away, then slowly he stretches, turns towards you, and scratches your face all to hell.
No rhyme. No reason.

2. Aroldis Chapman

He's a Starter. He's a Closer. He's a Starter.
Pitchers are a lot like kickers in football. The more you leave them alone, the better off they seem to be.
I love Chapman's arm. I really do. And I know he wants to start.
Still, in this case, change is not good.
At worse, the dl.
At best, limited innings.

1. Bryce Harper

Harper is going to the first round with a bullet. He was excellent last year. And, he still hasn't even shown off the 35-45 homer power that he'll eventually be counted on for.
So, why is he my 'shocker pick' this year?
Harper is THE upside pick this year. But now, his downside is never spoken.
Cole Hamels hit him last year and he just turned and ran for first, then later stole home against him. It was a turning point for Harper. He reacted like somebody twice his age. That was last year.
He's known as being brash and a little bit of a hot head.
I think now that he has 'earned his bones' that it will manifest itself this year.
Worse, he still doesn't have it all figured out. Crafty lefties make him look silly. Watching him try to hit Andy Pettitte last year was like a salmon in a bear's mouth.
A lost cause.
He'll go through some slumping this year. The length of that slump is unknown.
But worse even yet is Harper's reckless abandon. He is the Brett Lawrie of outfielders. Throwing himself into dives on the warning track, into fences, and into teammates.
It's all fun to watch. And I'll be watching. It just won't be with him on my roster.

So there you have it. I'm sure yours are different.
Mine did not include Hunter Pence who I have never rostered.
Never feeling that Pence was deserving of the rounds he has been picked in. And this year, even down the drafting totem pole, I still have a hard time taking him.
Maybe I have an inner bias towards players that look dorkish. I don't know.

Shhhhhh!

These are my "sleepers"!

Time to revisit this thread and grade myself, one third of the way into the season....

10. Mike Napoli-
Napoli is making me look like Chicken Little saying, 'The sky is falling! The sky is falling!'.
Napoli has been most productive and in as much is flipping me the bird and telling me, 'Screw you!'

9. Elvis Andrus
Andrus isn't a bust as much as he is a disappointment to most owners. Segura and Escobar owners are getting the numbers Andrus drafters are wishing they could get. Heck, even JHonny Peralta is telling Andrus owners, 'Screw you!'

8 Jared Weaver
His owners are frustrated and now buoyed with hope. I'll try to remember to pick this article up again in August. By then, Weaver owners will probably be frustrated again.

7 Brett Lawrie
The worst kind of player to draft. The one that sucks before getting hurt. Will he have enough time on the field to right his numbers?
Can he?
I'm guessing no and I'm guessing he'll be dropped in a lot of leagues too.
He just doesn't have enough power to justify a corner position. Let alone stay healthy long enough to try.

6 Carl Crawford
He's stayed healthy. That's a good thing.
His numbers aren't bad. That's a good thing.
At the same time, this isn't the Carl Crawford we all know. And, I doubt we see that Carl Crawford again. He doesn't run with reckless abandon anymore. That is a good thing for his owners in the field, a bad thing on the bases.
Nope, he's not the same. He's more like Gregor Blanco in his approach to the game. The injuries have taken a toll. And it's too bad, Crawford was fun to watch.

5 CC Sabathia
Sabathia is like Halladay last year. He's doing the same physical things, but his age is starting to show and get in the way of what he used to be capable of. Sometimes when drafting players like Verlander, Sabathia, or Jeter, we fear that we'll be the one's that are holding them when the end comes. We'll find out with Sabathia at a later time whether it's a slow death or a quick slash to owners throats.

4 Mark Teixeira
Is there anybody that has a more pained look while getting hurt or hit by a pitch than Teixeira?
Well, maybe his owners.
Injuries have killed Teixeira owners and when he gets back those owners will remember how the shift kills his batting average.
Teixeira will not be taken in the first 10 rounds of drafts next year. And whoever gets him in the 11th, will summarily be disappointed.

3 Alex Rios
Rios has found a place, a Manager, a town, a teammate, an agent, an owner....SOMETHING, that makes him want to play. And when Rios wants to play he is a very good ball player. I was wrong as I can be about Rios having a bad year.

2 Aroldis Chapman
There is something missing in Chapman this year. I don't know whether it was the whole starting thing or not, but there is something missing. He's still putting up good numbers, but he doesn't look as dominating. Maybe the answers will show themselves when I try to update this in August.

1 Bryce Harper
He's great when on the field, isn't he? And he hasn't had any of the mental issues I talked about, but he still hasn't met an outfield wall that he doesn't want to kiss.
Harper is taking a lot of at bats away from his owners with reckless play.
Television loves it, his owners, gnashing their teeth.

Like said, I'll try to update this again in August, if only for a few of these players to have the chance to figuratively say, 'Screw you, Dan!'

Solid BA so far Dan, and the rationale looks good too.

I didn't post a bust list, but I am enjoying a personal victory so far with some high-buzz guys that I avoided at all cost like Stanton, Prado, Espinosa, BJ Upon and on the pitching side Gallardo and Morrow. Unfortunately, I'm also stuck with some of your good calls above on multiple teams with CC, Lawrie and most of all Harper (who could go either way at this point, but you nailed the risk assessment anyway).

My top blown calls would be the other Upton and, so far, Cahill ... though time still could be my friend with those two.

the other day my wife says to me...."you spend all that time analyzing this stuff and you drafted BJ Upton?"

ouch.

Nothing worse than being left holding the bag with a guy like BJ.

We look at a guy like Upton and see that two important category player. Homers and stolen bases.
Same with Drew Stubbs.
When we do draft players like this, we think of the year Ellsbury had or a Carl Crawford year from the past.
Forgetting what that constant 0-4 does to our batting average every day.
And, it is the worst trap too.
He can't be dropped for fear of him haunting us on another team.
He can't be benched for fear of him getting a hr/sb game that won't count.
Instead of a dl list, Upton owners need an 'under performers list'
A list a player can go on, and at the end of the Mon-Thur or Fri-Sun deadline, we have the option of saying whether that players stats count or not.

chapmen- ya but that 105 mile fastball 10 ft over swishers head and then the next one right at swishers head had to be the best baseball moment this year. I think chapmens response to swisher saying "don't do that" was- the ist one I was just calibrating ,the second one was for all the kisses and smiles and bs all the pitchers have to look at EVERY time you hit a homer. go back to the AL and see ya next year.