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Projections slay me. They really do. If they're your own projections, they are naturally leaning towards players liked. If they're a computer driven or prognosticators projections they are subject to Missouri/Missouri or stuck in the middle with you.
Screw projections!
When drafting, write down the names of the players you're drafting. In just looking at the names, you should have some formulation in your mind of needs, wants, strengths, and shortages. I know one fella who brings a lap top to NFBC and rings up his projections totals to the round. It's stupid. That drafter is letting numbers get in the way of his draft.

Here's a trick I do. I look at whole season numbers for my first 15 players drafted.
Why?
Because if we drafted right, those players will seldom see the bench. They are the core of our team. Forget about yearly numbers with the bottom 15 players chosen. If we're lucky, we'll play a handfull of these players the full year. The others will be dropped or become 'split tease' artists.
Let me give you an example.
Gavin Floyd and Clayton Richard.
Drafters looking at all year stats may prefer Floyd. He pitches for a better team. He's more of a strike out pitcher.
Richard is a pitcher that is lucky to be pitching in JellyStone Park.

If the all year guys are content on throwing Floyd every game, they are doomed. Floyd has 'off' games as much as he has 'on' games. Worse, he has these off games without telegraphing his owner that he plans to really suck that night.
Richard will pitch well in JellyStone and not on the road. That, is what we want from our players. A little heads up before stinking up the joint. If we throw Richard on the road, that's OUR bad, not his.
Projections never capture this. Nor do they reflect all the changes made to a team once the season begins. It's as if those same 30 players are going to perform on our roster all year long.
FAAB is over half the work of an NFBC Championship. The draft is just the foundation.

Projections are for those that want to feel better about their team than they should.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Projections slay me. They really do. If they're your own projections, they are naturally leaning towards players liked. If they're a computer driven or prognosticators projections they are subject to Missouri/Missouri or stuck in the middle with you.
Screw projections!
When drafting, write down the names of the players you're drafting. In just looking at the names, you should have some formulation in your mind of needs, wants, strengths, and shortages. I know one fella who brings a lap top to NFBC and rings up his projections totals to the round. It's stupid. That drafter is letting numbers get in the way of his draft.

Here's a trick I do. I look at whole season numbers for my first 15 players drafted.
Why?
Because if we drafted right, those players will seldom see the bench. They are the core of our team. Forget about yearly numbers with the bottom 15 players chosen. If we're lucky, we'll play a handfull of these players the full year. The others will be dropped or become 'split tease' artists.
Let me give you an example.
Gavin Floyd and Clayton Richard.
Drafters looking at all year stats may prefer Floyd. He pitches for a better team. He's more of a strike out pitcher.
Richard is a pitcher that is lucky to be pitching in JellyStone Park.

If the all year guys are content on throwing Floyd every game, they are doomed. Floyd has 'off' games as much as he has 'on' games. Worse, he has these off games without telegraphing his owner that he plans to really suck that night.
Richard will pitch well in JellyStone and not on the road. That, is what we want from our players. A little heads up before stinking up the joint. If we throw Richard on the road, that's OUR bad, not his.
Projections never capture this. Nor do they reflect all the changes made to a team once the season begins. It's as if those same 30 players are going to perform on our roster all year long.
FAAB is over half the work of an NFBC Championship. The draft is just the foundation.

Projections are for those that want to feel better about their team than they should.

I use projections all the way through the draft.. not to make my team look better, but to keep track of the totals in each category to make sure I am where I need to be. If I am light on steals, I draft steals, if I am light on Ks, I find a strikeout pitcher, etc. Maybe it makes me stupid... its just how I am comfortable.

Your computer musta been going crazy after the first few rounds of your contract draft....

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Your computer musta been going crazy after the first few rounds of your contract draft....

Dan, I think the longer you work with projections the more you understand how (and how not) to use them. With you being an anti-projectionist while seeing the blindly religious following of some, I get your complaint. And you're right - projections are no substitute for starting Clayton Richard at Arizona, but used correctly they give a projectionist a baseline just like an observationist such as yourself has a baseline from watching games.

Being a little of both and not over- buying into the value of either, I think the art of it is understanding the limitations of what you're working and having an historical/experienced perspective and trying to achieve a balanced approach between the numbers and human tendancies. That, and try to be lucky ... because nothing beats getting really lucky.

Agreed KJ.
There are no right or wrong strategies to fantasy baseball. A couple of years ago, I sat next to a guy at a Main Draft who would look at his computer before each pick. I feigned a look at the screen to get a reaction from him. He laughed and said, "Go ahead, this program only works for the team I'm drafting". I responded by saying, "You've waited all year for this draft and you're letting your computer tell you who to pick?"
"I put a lot of work into that program, it's almost like I HAVE to do what it says now."
I handed him my notebook with my lists of players, I told him, "You oughta try this next time, it doesn't give a shit who you pick!"

I know that some folks are successful with projections. At the same time, I feel like they miss some bets. The computer only knows numbers. I feel Dexter Fowler has the heart of a con man. Same with the Drew Brothers. This is just my personal observations from watching them on the field and in interviews. They are like those sisters that are on the tabloids as we go through the checkouts. All style, no substance, and in the end, give the impression that the pocketbook should bulge more than their average.

Fowler may look good in a projection, but on screen, he's a flop. A player driven by his home park, but not a player, driven.This has to be taken into account. Now, if a projectionist thinks about that before selecting Fowler, I'd say he's ahead of the game in selecting another player.
But in my minds eye, I have a hard time seeing that happen.