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Adam Dunn hit .204 last year and was happy with it. .200 is the new .250 for Dunn. Strike outs, the shift, and Dunn's upward angled swing have all conspired to make Dunn a no hoper for much more than his .204 average. With a good on base percentage, his power, and no fielding skills, Dunn could be the first player in baseball history that is appreciated for hitting .200 without fielding well.

Fantasy-wise, he's a problem. Best case scenario, he can be thought of as a three category player.
And he is.
The problem being that we don't have a negative for categories. If we did, Dunn would be about the largest negative we can think of, in terms of batting average. His walks cushion the blow, in that he'll get 0-3 instead of 0-4's to soften the average fall, but it is still felt.

Dunn is at a place where Mark Teixeira would be now, were Teixeira not a switch hitter. The same place as Dan Uggla will be in a year or two. Dunn is the construction cones on a highway in warning that the highway ends at the bottom of a cliff.
There's no surprise from Dunn, well, save two years ago, when showing he could be even worse. The one constant being that he will not hit for average.
But sometimes, and I have drafted him this year, we are so desperate for power that he becomes an option.
We don't HAVE to play him....but we know we will.

Here is what Dunn does to your average....
Let's say that you are fortunate enough that you draft three players that don't get hurt, get 600 at bats each and hit .300
Woo hoo!
We're well on our way to winning batting average in our league.
But, let's add Dunn.
Dunn gets 500 at bats and hits .200
I did the math. The .300 average generated by three players with 1800 at bat, has gone from being generated to being Dunnerated.
The 2300 at bats figures out to a .278 average.
Your three best hitters, Dunn in.

I love his name.
Adam, like the biblical Adam being first.
Dunn, as in finished or through.
Think of this when determining whether to draft Dunn.
First in power. Last in average.
It's up to us to decide whether the first is worth the last.

All this said, I guarantee that after the Main Events are over and Dunn is drafted after the 15th round of a draft, somebody is going to stand up and exclaim, VALUE!
Instead, he may be better suited sitting in a corner wearing a 'Dunnce' hat.

Dan
I drafted Dunn last year, and did, indeed, have a miserable time keeping my team average up. I think I finished 12th.
But I'm not sure your math/reasoning truly holds water.

You add him to only 3 hitters. Truth is his .200 average would be dissipated by 13 others, making it less of a hit.

Let me cite my league as an example.

The winner in BA posted a .280 average. He was 1822 for 6509. Now lets suppose you take out one of his "average" hitters. Take a .280 hitter with the same 500 ABs and replace his 140 hits with Dunn's .200 AVG and 100 hits. A 40 hit deficit.

That would bring his .280 average down to .273.

Guesss what? Last year...and I realize it would vary year to year...but last year .273 would still have been the best BA in this league....albeit by one point.

And, mathematically, the worse your team BA is, the less he hurts you. But those 40 bombs and the associated RBI's could vault you a few places in the standings. And if you replace, say a .260 hitter with Dunn's .200, even less of a hit.

Having said all that,...I think I'll pass on him this year.

I think both of you are kind of making the same point in different ways, which is unless you dominate batting average with the 13 guys on your team other than Dunn, he can have a severe impact on batting average, both in league and more notably, overall.

Atlas wrote:You add him to only 3 hitters. Truth is his .200 average would be dissipated by 13 others, making it less of a hit.

Yeah, I did that on purpose. I wanted to illustrate what Dunn could do to the best three average hitters on a team.
Although his average could be watered down by adding other players, he has already ruined the drafting of a a Braun, Reyes, and Mauer and their averages.
And I just pulled those names out of the air.
Like said, I've taken Dunn in a couple of drafts this year. I feel dirty each time I take him, but I also like the three cat help, knowing what he'll do to average. On one team, I didn't draft him till needed for a Utility player. The thought process being that he may be platooned on my team. I just need to resist temptation to leave him in the lineup every period.

He's not a total pass in my book. But there better be good reason to draft him

DOUGHBOYS wrote:

Atlas wrote:You add him to only 3 hitters. Truth is his .200 average would be dissipated by 13 others, making it less of a hit.

Yeah, I did that on purpose. I wanted to illustrate what Dunn could do to the best three average hitters on a team.
Although his average could be watered down by adding other players, he has already ruined the drafting of a a Braun, Reyes, and Mauer and their averages.
And I just pulled those names out of the air.
Like said, I've taken Dunn in a couple of drafts this year. I feel dirty each time I take him, but I also like the three cat help, knowing what he'll do to average. On one team, I didn't draft him till needed for a Utility player. The thought process being that he may be platooned on my team. I just need to resist temptation to leave him in the lineup every period.

He's not a total pass in my book. But there better be good reason to draft him

Yep....I see your point. Last year I took him because I got him ridiculously late and there were nothing but .260 hitters left...with no appreciable upside. It's almost like a game of chicken. This year I won't be so eager.

I believe I'll be not too far away from you Thursday evening. Let's see who pulls that trigger.

Looking forward to it

Dunn is probably the easiest of bad average hitters to talk about. He is simply a no-hoper in terms of improving his batting average.
Another more sinister type of player is the top of the lineup guy who gets a lot of at bats and turns in a less than stellar year in the batting average department.
One was JJ Hardy last year. Although Buck Showalter was lauded for great Managing in leading Baltimore to the playoffs last year, many still question why JJ Hardy stayed in the two spot of the batting order.
Hardy would finish second in all of baseball in at bats. Think about that for a minute. How many rounds would you have moved up Hardy last year if guaranteed that he would be second in baseball in at bats.
But, it hurt teams, at least in batting average. If we take those same three .300 hitters and put Hardy on their team with last years stats, that team batting average becomes .283
Even though Hardy hit 34 points higher than Dunn, his extra at bats hurt average almost as much as Dunn.
Even Ian Kinsler's seemingly acceptable .256 average made a downturn in our .300 hitters of 12 points to .288
Average is a son-of-a-bitch. And it only takes one son-of-a-bitch to make us realize that.