End of the World Predictors Never Get to Gloat
Posted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:56 am
Anybody can make a prediction. If I make a prediction that my wife will be home from work at 5:20, that is based on past performance and habits. If sitting in a bar and making a prediction that the next person through the door will be a male, I am making a calculated guess based on most bars having more male patrons than female. If predicting the Astros will beat any other team in baseball, we are knowingly bucking the odds. And if predicting that the world will end tomorrow, we will be met with derision, and worse, if we're right, there will be no time for gloating.
So, we have predictions based on past performance and habits.
Predictions based on calculated odds.
Predictions bucking odds.
And predictions that are met with eye rolls and perceived stupidity.
Fantasy baseball is a game based on predictions. We are all making predictions each time we draft a player. Our own adp's are based on predictions of who will be the best players in baseball. After a season is over, magazines, online sites, and prognosticators start making predictions for the next year. These predictions will be based on past performance, habits, and calculated odds. Hardly any will have predictions that buck the odds or 'end of the world' predictions.
Although they all have different ways of making these predictions, most of their predictions are similar. This filters down to fantasy players.
It's not that EVERY fantasy player are sheep. It's that taken as a whole, our predictions are the very similar. If nine of ten of us believe that Cole Hamels will have a better season than Matt Harvey, the brave predictor taking Harvey over Hamels gets lost in the 90 per cent believing in Hamels.
The Harvey backer becomes a predictor bucking odds. There aren't many in fantasy baseball. A predictor bucking odds in fantasy baseball knows that Hamels will be taken in the third round and that Harvey can be taken at a later time. He is using calculated odds along with bucking the trend thoughts in making his prediction that Harvey will be the better pitcher.
This is the smartest of drafters.
The Baseball Forecaster is easier to predict than their own predictions on players. They'll predict any player who has had an outstanding season to regress. That is unless the player has passed the Missouri/Missouri test. Once passing the Missouri/Missouri test, those numbers can then be expected. Mike Trout had an out of the world year last year. Based on past performance and habits, it was easy to predict that Shandler would predict that Trout would be set for a regression packed year. However if Trout pulls it off again this year, we can bet that Shandler will ride the bandwagon for the rest of Trout's career, like Jose Bautista.
The same thing happened with Bautista after his breakout year, when he came close to repeating his breakout numbers the following year, Missouri/Missouri was in effect and it was then ok for Shandler and others to predict 40 home runs for Bautista.
Beguiled by a players talent, Shandler and others will rarely go with an 'end of the world' prediction'. When Joba and his magic arm were going to be transformed to Starter status, Shandler tried riding the wave in making Joba the best pitcher in baseball.
That didn't go so well. Still, I had respect for somebody as renowned as Shandler to go off the deep end for a talent.
The best NFBC players see nuggets that other predictors miss.
Evan Gattis, Michael Olmsted, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Christian Yelich were overshadowed in magazines and sites by Profar, Zunino, Myers, Hamilton, and D'Arnoud. The latter names may all be better long term names, but I know good drafters in the NFBC that predicted the former names would have more of an impact in leagues THIS year.
NFBC drafters don't care about the future. They care about the now. Profar, Myers, etc on a roster now is just a bench filler with no hope of immediate playing time. Gattis has already helped teams. Good NFBC drafters do not need Missouri/Missouri.
Missouri/Missouri followers never get the benefit of a breakout year. A lot of good NFBC players had Trout rostered last year. Some predicted that the talent would overcome the playing time obstacle that held his draft position down as the season began. Some were just flat lucky in that they could afford to roster the talent on their bench.
This year, Matt Carpenter was given more latitude in drafts because of his positionality. Eligible to play at 1b, 3b, and outfield with the possibility of 2b later moved his draft status up a good five rounds in NFBC drafts. Players like Carpenter, Ben Zobrist, and even Maicer Izturis are handy to have on rosters. If almost any player rostered goes down during the middle of the week, they are more easily replaced by the likes of these fantasy Utility players.
But, I'll make a prediction for Carpenter that'll exceed most expectations for him.
Not only will he qualify at 2b, I predict he will also have close to this line by the end of the season-
.305/85.15/75/10
Some would call this a 'projection'. Projections are the same as predictions. It just seems like that if you make a lot of predictions, they have to have another name. So, they're projections.
I make few projections.
My minds eye sees a player like Miguel Cabrera and does not need numbers for each category. I know that he will fill four of them better than most players in baseball.
I make the prediction for Carpenter because, let's face it, we all love 'out there' predictions.
Predictions do not HAVE to be about numbers. I also predict that Matt Adams will be the Cardinals first baseman at the end of this year and going into next year.
This prediction is based upon Adams numbers in the Minors and the confidence exuded in hitting Major League pitching.
I know, I know, you are saying what about playing time?
What about Allen Craig?
What about Taveras?
What about Musial?
Ok, you're not really asking about Musial, but the others all need addressing. (French or Thousand Island for me, please)
I make the Adams prediction not only based on Adams skill, but also other Cardinals skills.
To me, staying healthy is a skill. A skill that David Freese, Allen Craig, and Carlos Beltran do not have. At some point this year, it is a good bet that one of these players, or a combination of these players will get hurt and Adams will be given the first base job. Once given the job, I don't think that it is given back due to Adams skills.
Craig will have to find a place in the outfield or maybe even 3b if Freese is out for an extended time. In fact, if Craig can work out at 3b, it would be better for the Cardinals in the long run in possibly opening a spot for Taveras in the outfield should/when Beltran goes down.
If this prediction is wrong.....so what?
This is another thing about predictions. Few care if they're wrong. They're just enjoyable to read and they make our minds work over time in whether agreeing with the predictions.
Every year, everybody predicts Adam Dunn with 40 homers and a horrible batting average. It's easy.
And when Dunn has a year like two years ago, everybody that predicted his usual 40 homers is let off the hook because NOBODY could have foreseen Dunn hitting so badly.
Predictions are like asses.
Everybody has one. Some can be admired. Some can be laughed at. Some are screwed.
And in the end, most are forgotten about all together.
So, we have predictions based on past performance and habits.
Predictions based on calculated odds.
Predictions bucking odds.
And predictions that are met with eye rolls and perceived stupidity.
Fantasy baseball is a game based on predictions. We are all making predictions each time we draft a player. Our own adp's are based on predictions of who will be the best players in baseball. After a season is over, magazines, online sites, and prognosticators start making predictions for the next year. These predictions will be based on past performance, habits, and calculated odds. Hardly any will have predictions that buck the odds or 'end of the world' predictions.
Although they all have different ways of making these predictions, most of their predictions are similar. This filters down to fantasy players.
It's not that EVERY fantasy player are sheep. It's that taken as a whole, our predictions are the very similar. If nine of ten of us believe that Cole Hamels will have a better season than Matt Harvey, the brave predictor taking Harvey over Hamels gets lost in the 90 per cent believing in Hamels.
The Harvey backer becomes a predictor bucking odds. There aren't many in fantasy baseball. A predictor bucking odds in fantasy baseball knows that Hamels will be taken in the third round and that Harvey can be taken at a later time. He is using calculated odds along with bucking the trend thoughts in making his prediction that Harvey will be the better pitcher.
This is the smartest of drafters.
The Baseball Forecaster is easier to predict than their own predictions on players. They'll predict any player who has had an outstanding season to regress. That is unless the player has passed the Missouri/Missouri test. Once passing the Missouri/Missouri test, those numbers can then be expected. Mike Trout had an out of the world year last year. Based on past performance and habits, it was easy to predict that Shandler would predict that Trout would be set for a regression packed year. However if Trout pulls it off again this year, we can bet that Shandler will ride the bandwagon for the rest of Trout's career, like Jose Bautista.
The same thing happened with Bautista after his breakout year, when he came close to repeating his breakout numbers the following year, Missouri/Missouri was in effect and it was then ok for Shandler and others to predict 40 home runs for Bautista.
Beguiled by a players talent, Shandler and others will rarely go with an 'end of the world' prediction'. When Joba and his magic arm were going to be transformed to Starter status, Shandler tried riding the wave in making Joba the best pitcher in baseball.
That didn't go so well. Still, I had respect for somebody as renowned as Shandler to go off the deep end for a talent.
The best NFBC players see nuggets that other predictors miss.
Evan Gattis, Michael Olmsted, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Christian Yelich were overshadowed in magazines and sites by Profar, Zunino, Myers, Hamilton, and D'Arnoud. The latter names may all be better long term names, but I know good drafters in the NFBC that predicted the former names would have more of an impact in leagues THIS year.
NFBC drafters don't care about the future. They care about the now. Profar, Myers, etc on a roster now is just a bench filler with no hope of immediate playing time. Gattis has already helped teams. Good NFBC drafters do not need Missouri/Missouri.
Missouri/Missouri followers never get the benefit of a breakout year. A lot of good NFBC players had Trout rostered last year. Some predicted that the talent would overcome the playing time obstacle that held his draft position down as the season began. Some were just flat lucky in that they could afford to roster the talent on their bench.
This year, Matt Carpenter was given more latitude in drafts because of his positionality. Eligible to play at 1b, 3b, and outfield with the possibility of 2b later moved his draft status up a good five rounds in NFBC drafts. Players like Carpenter, Ben Zobrist, and even Maicer Izturis are handy to have on rosters. If almost any player rostered goes down during the middle of the week, they are more easily replaced by the likes of these fantasy Utility players.
But, I'll make a prediction for Carpenter that'll exceed most expectations for him.
Not only will he qualify at 2b, I predict he will also have close to this line by the end of the season-
.305/85.15/75/10
Some would call this a 'projection'. Projections are the same as predictions. It just seems like that if you make a lot of predictions, they have to have another name. So, they're projections.
I make few projections.
My minds eye sees a player like Miguel Cabrera and does not need numbers for each category. I know that he will fill four of them better than most players in baseball.
I make the prediction for Carpenter because, let's face it, we all love 'out there' predictions.
Predictions do not HAVE to be about numbers. I also predict that Matt Adams will be the Cardinals first baseman at the end of this year and going into next year.
This prediction is based upon Adams numbers in the Minors and the confidence exuded in hitting Major League pitching.
I know, I know, you are saying what about playing time?
What about Allen Craig?
What about Taveras?
What about Musial?
Ok, you're not really asking about Musial, but the others all need addressing. (French or Thousand Island for me, please)
I make the Adams prediction not only based on Adams skill, but also other Cardinals skills.
To me, staying healthy is a skill. A skill that David Freese, Allen Craig, and Carlos Beltran do not have. At some point this year, it is a good bet that one of these players, or a combination of these players will get hurt and Adams will be given the first base job. Once given the job, I don't think that it is given back due to Adams skills.
Craig will have to find a place in the outfield or maybe even 3b if Freese is out for an extended time. In fact, if Craig can work out at 3b, it would be better for the Cardinals in the long run in possibly opening a spot for Taveras in the outfield should/when Beltran goes down.
If this prediction is wrong.....so what?
This is another thing about predictions. Few care if they're wrong. They're just enjoyable to read and they make our minds work over time in whether agreeing with the predictions.
Every year, everybody predicts Adam Dunn with 40 homers and a horrible batting average. It's easy.
And when Dunn has a year like two years ago, everybody that predicted his usual 40 homers is let off the hook because NOBODY could have foreseen Dunn hitting so badly.
Predictions are like asses.
Everybody has one. Some can be admired. Some can be laughed at. Some are screwed.
And in the end, most are forgotten about all together.