The New Top 30

[DOUGHBOYS]

I am not a projectionist. I do, however, love lists.
During the off-season, I will re-rank my players by position every week.
At least I try to do it every week.
Then, I'll keep all those lists in the same notebook and by the time Main Event week comes along. I can compare week to week notes and see if maybe I have been too harsh or too easy on some players.
Just a prep for drafting.

But I asked myself today....How would you draft now, if the season were called a re-do,and we had to start over?
Hmmmm...

Lets just take the top players. We'll start with pitchers.
On most lists, three pitchers dominated pre-season lists.
Kershaw, Strasburg, and Verlander.
None of the three have pitched theirselves out of top status.
But two pitchers would surely be joining them.
The top list would look more like this....
Kershaw
Harvey
Darvish
Verlander
Strasburg

And before, Price and Hamels were looking to break into this group, now it may be Zimmerman, Scherzer and Wainwright...

Catchers?
For as much attention as John Buck has received, he still looks like an April hot streak that can be just as cold in May.
Posey topped all lists before and he still would.
Napoli, Molina, Mauer, Santana, all the usual suspects behind Posey are still good suspects.
JP Arencibia would make a big leap.
Evan Gattis gets more consideration, but his road from here on is cloudy.
Miguel Montero takes a tumble.

First base-
Paul Goldschmidt may move into the first round .
He's been that good and it's not just smoke and mirrors.
Votto falls. Not out of the first round, but closer to the bottom.
Chris Davis moves up.
And the name Eric Hosmer, before looked on as prospect, is now looked on as Overbay-like.
Safe to say that we have seen the last of Albert Pujols in the first round.

Second Base-
Cano, then everybody else. That's the way it was before the season.
Things have gotten closer. Cano still has the most homers, but Utley and Phillips have more rbi.
Utley would move up, but like Tulo owners, they are in constant fear of the other shoe dropping in the form of injury.
Kelly Johnson and Altuve would move up.
Pedroia ponderers would be worried about his lack of power.
Neil Walker and Rickie Weeks look well on their way to lost seasons and would drop like a fouled soccer player.

Third Base-
Miguel Cabrera heads every draft. That simple.
Evan Longoria and health. A great combo.
We used to get a little speed out of 3b. This year, the only pure 3b with even just three steals are Wright, Machado, and Frasier.
Machado would be drafted in single digit rounds. Possibly as high as the fourth round. Maybe even third. And if he switches to shortstop by the end of the year, he could be first or second round material.
Ryan Zimmerman moves down with the perma-injured label. Zimmerman has one homer in 85 at bats this year.
Sure, he'll get hot and catch up a bit, but then again, an another injury is just as possible.

Shortstop-
I know Tulo has stayed healthy and I know that Hanley Ramirez could keep his high status, although he won't on my lists.
For my money, the best shortstop has been Jean Segura. He replaces Elvis Andrus on lists. Andrus has always thought to be a judy with possible pop. Segura HAS pop.
If Segura keeps it up, he could work his way into top 30 adp status in next years lists.
Jose Reyes will stay near the top, but he achieves Tulo status in that prospective owners will know who to insure.

Outfield-
Matt Kemp has played his way out of the first round. There's something wrong with him. He's like a toy that doesn't work on Christmas. All shiny on the outside, but worthless cuz it just won't work.
His teammate Crawford gets taken in the first five rounds.
Unless Geeihurto Stanton gets traded, he'll drop down to at least the bottom of the second round and possibly the third.
Josh Hamilton, drops even further as the Angels do their best to collect ARod type players and contracts.
Carlos Gomez climbs into the first two rounds...
Shin-Soo Choo moves up...

So without much thought, let's do a top 30 players stuff.
Feel free to input your picks as I admit to not putting a whole lot of thought into this.....

Pitchers-
Kershaw, Verlander, Strasburg, Harvey, Darvish

Catchers-
Posey

1B-
Fielder, Goldschmidt, Votto, CDavis, Encarnacion

2B-
Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia

3B-
Cabrera, Longoria, Wright, Beltre

SS-
Tulo, HRamirez, Segura, Reyes

OF-
Trout, Braun, CarGo, Harper, Upton, McCutchen, Choo, Ad Jones, Ellsbury

That's 30.
It leaves out some old friends like Pujols, Kemp, Hamilton, and even Jose Bautista who hasn't really played his way out of the first two rounds, he just looks to be a guy that'll never achieve what he has in the past again.

Alright. Let me have it.
I know that Segura and Gomez won't feel right on others list.
And I know that some hate to see the old guard like Pujols, Kemp, and Hamilton leave without fair warning.
But, that's the way fantasy baseball works.....at least on my lists.

[Sea Wolves]

I really enjoyed this post, especailly the walk through each position!

I agree with the bulk of your top 30, but I have a question, why would you rank Reyes in the top 30 knowing the amount of time he will be missing? Reyes is great, when healthy, but considering he's not healthy I have a hard time putting him in the top 30. I'd be more inclined to go with Rizzo, who is currently in the top 25 and who appears to be breaking out.

Finally, it appears your top 30 is actualy a top 31.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight! Its much appreciated.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I really enjoyed this post, especailly the walk through each position!

I agree with the bulk of your top 30, but I have a question, why would you rank Reyes in the top 30 knowing the amount of time he will be missing? Reyes is great, when healthy, but considering he's not healthy I have a hard time putting him in the top 30. I'd be more inclined to go with Rizzo, who is currently in the top 25 and who appears to be breaking out.

Finally, it appears your top 30 is actually a top 31.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight! Its much appreciated.

First- Thank you
Second- Damn! You're right, there is 31!
Third- Let's take this opportunity to screw the one's that screw us and add your suggestion.

Consider Reyes and Ramirez off the list and Rizzo on.
We hardly ever get a chance to screw the injured, seems like it's always the other way around.
Seize the moment

Again, thanks.

[headhunters]

good list. this time of year i look for and at guys i just missed the boat on. gomez and segura are 2 of them. i "liked" them- but not as early as they were drafted- a clear miss on segura. he just looks great right now. the other guy is machado. he really looks good. he is now up in the order and i think that is big deal , he could put up some big numbers going forward.

[headhunters]

and i go to see the lineups on early games and segura goes deep. i hate to say what he is on pace for- but i would be told by all the stat heads that the sample size is too small- just like it is for trout.

[KJ Duke]

Good stuff Dan.

Giancarlo was about a 9th rounder for me coming into the season, and he hasn't budged. You really think he's still a 2nd rounder? If someone offered you Chris Davis for Stanton, would you even have to think about it?

Gomez I wanted on every team but was too cheap to take him in the 6th, so he's on about half of them. He probably won't hit over 300, but if I had reached as high as the 4th I think he'd still be a bargain at season's end. Segura, I liked him but just a little less then everyone else it seemed, until my last draft of the season following a nudge from another veTeRan player. Like Gomez, he won't keep up these stats but he'll be worth way more than where he was taken in any draft.

And how about revisiting the Trout-Harper debate ... with Trout heating up and Bryce constantly running into things, does consensus opinion move Trout back above Harper? Hmmm, I don't want to jump the gun or anything here, but ...

[Glenneration X]

Very interesting post Dan. Though I believe the sample size still a bit too small to move some of these players so drastically off their March rankings. Let's not forget that at this point last season, James McDonald was a poor man's Matt Harvey, Paul Goldschmidt was on the poor side of a platoon with Lyle Overbay, and Albert Pujols & Rickie Weeks were struggling even more poorly than they are now before going on their respective 2nd half tears. Injury related concerns aside, my personal rankings would more closely resemble those I had at the time of the Main Event drafts than these do. A great exercise though. I wonder if we'll get to use these in some mid-season drafts.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I know it's early. At the same time, a quarter of the season is already in the books.
It's not like I'm already pronouncing a Trout regression after just three weeks

I'm in the same boat as you, KJ. I had Stanton way down on my lists as well and for myself, would not rank him in the first three rounds.
That said, I know there are those that drool over his muscles and think that he'd still go in the second or third round if we re-ran the season and he was healthy.

Given what Segura and Gomez have done, I'll stand by them. Do I want Starlin Castro on my team or Segura?
While the conservative in me says Castro, in reality I would feel that Segura gives me a better chance to win.

Gomez is a tougher nut. It's tough to find a comparable to Gomez. Most guys like him are hitting at the top of the order.
He is like Jacoby Ellsbury down in the lineup?

And Glenn, raise your hand if you thought McDonald was for real at any time last year.
I thought so.
He was a little like John Buck. Or Travis Wood.
His owners were riding the wave....knowing a psunami was probably behind it.
As for Goldschmidt, we all knew better, it just took a kick in the ass/head for Gibson to get it.

[KJ Duke]

Gomez is a tougher nut. It's tough to find a comparable to Gomez. Most guys like him are hitting at the top of the order.

Funny you mention that, Dan.

In 2009, Mattingly kept Matt Kemp near the bottom of the order for half the season in spite of the fact he was producing like one of the best hitters in the league ... 300 plate appearance batting 7th or lower, ending the season with a 297 BA and 26 HRs and 34 SBs. Roenicke isn't quite that dense, Gomez is already moving up.

One of my other targets that I've been very pleased with is Mitch Moreland, who's been sneaking up the charts. He's quietly got his avg up to nearly 300 after a slow start, along with 9 HRs. He hasn't produced a lot of runs because he's been near the bottom of the order, but now he's getting bumped up a few spots as well.

[rockitsauce]

Gomez is a tougher nut. It's tough to find a comparable to Gomez. Most guys like him are hitting at the top of the order.

Funny you mention that, Dan.

In 2009, Mattingly kept Matt Kemp near the bottom of the order for half the season in spite of the fact he was producing like one of the best hitters in the league ... 300 plate appearance batting 7th or lower, ending the season with a 297 BA and 26 HRs and 34 SBs. Roenicke isn't quite that dense, Gomez is already moving up.

You are right about Kemp being down in the order for far too long KJ, but wrong about the manager. It was Torre.

Donnie Baseball didn't become manager til 2011.

[Cowboy Joe]

Good read, Dan. On what do you base your lists? I know you've railed on projections in the past, but you're making some sort of assessment based on something. True?

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've heard the argument before, that even lists are projections. I don't get that.
If I have Miguel Cabrera as number one on my lists, and Trout number two, with CarGo number three. They are just that.
Number one, two, and three on my lists.
I have no specific numbers or even general numbers I want them to accomplish. I would just be thinking that I want to most build a team around those players in that order.

A few years ago, immediately after a draft, a fellow came up to me and exclaimed that I had had the best draft of the 15 participants, while his was a close second. I asked what he based this on and he handed me projections for every player and the teams that they were drafted on.
He was earnest, but I thought the exercise foolish. There are just too many variables. Part of the reason Cabrera would be my number one pick is his durability. This does not insure against him being hurt. Anybody can get hurt at any time and when that happens, projections are rendered meaningless and in season Management becomes crucial.
If projecting Cabrera for a .320/66/20/65/1 season and explaining that he is bound to get hurt, that projectionist would be ridiculed. A .320/120/40/120/2 is more accepted because we don't think of players as getting hurt.
If that first person had projected Aaron Hill with curtailed numbers, he would not be ridiculed. He'd probably be thought of as a soothsayer.
Anyway.....the argument can go on and on....
My lists are based on who I would like to have. That's it.

[Cowboy Joe]

Both lists and projections are an attempt to communicate expected future performance. I think your criticism (and rightly so) is aimed at the certainty to which some folks regard their projections. I consider my projections to be a best guess (or an over/under type number). I might assign Cabrera a 25% likelihood that he gets 575 ABs which isn't a high confidence level, but it is greater than the 15% likelihood that I estimate for either a 500 or 650 AB target, so it's my best guess. By itself, that projection doesn't mean much, but at the team level it provides a reasonable estimate of ABs as my projections might miss high on 8 of my hitters and low on the other 6. Or, maybe I underestimated ABs for 13 of 14 my players meaning I could have some sort of bias in my technique that needs to be addressed. Either way, it's useful feedback.

I also think that while lists might be sufficient for drafts, projections are vital for auctions. In a draft, you typically select the best available player (or player at a targeted position) when it's your turn, and you can do that by scanning your list. In an auction, you need to have some idea of the degree of difference between the second and third ranked player because you are obtaining them with dollars. Also, the sequence in which they are offered is not in a best to worst fashion. Breaking down your expectations into a more granular fashion helps in assigning a estimated monetary worth.

As to your list of 30, I would offer up Cliff Lee and James Shields for consideration.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let's pick this list up again......
Of course it was made BP.
In this case, BP does not mean batting practice, it means Before Puig.
So, we move Puig in. We move Harvey out.
Is the shine off Segura and his pedestrian second half?
Is he like Elvis Andrus in that the most homers he'll ever hit will come in his initial year? He has one since the All Star break.

What about Carlos Gomez? This second half has owners realizing that he is not somebody who plays hurt.

What about Kinsler? Is he REALLY a top 30 pick?

And finally, what about Tulo?
Does it do us a lot of good to draft somebody that is the best player who doesn't play?
For the third or fourth year in a row, I implore the Rockies to switch Tulo to 3B, LF, or even 1B.
Shortstop kicks Tulowitzki's ass every year.

Anyway, give me your best top 30 list and I'll compare it to the top 30 of the upcoming Pre-mature draft.
And I'll put the results here.
The person that comes closest buys me a bag of Doritos for the Vegas draft.
Hey, I like that deal!

[Edwards Kings]

I will bite!

Pitchers - Scherzer, Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, Strasburg. One who could sneak in their late could be Chris Sale. Also, a gambler might grab Kimbrel as there are so few solid save sources. Probably won't, but maybe. Second round dominated by pitchers and third basemen.

1B - Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Goldschmidt, Encarnacion (everone a beliver now?), Votto ( ). Freddie Freeman could sneak in here as well as Craig.

3B - Thin, thin, thin will drive some of these picks and all of these will be second round. Beltre, Longoria, Wright. Zimmerman could sneak in hear if there is a mini-run somewhere in the second round.

SS - You know...YOU KNOW...someone will gamble on Tulo. I will also put Desmond and Segura here also because this is thin. Wildcard is Reyes.

2B - Kipnis, Cano, Pedroia. The rest of the league will have to pray.

OF - Dominates the first round. Trout, McCutchen, Ellsbury, Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Rios, Harper, Puig, Kemp (you know...YOU KNOW...someone is gonna gamble), Choo, and Justin Upton (in case anyone gets confused and thinks I meant Bossman Junior). Several guys could upset this layer especially late second like Giancarlo, Carlos Gomez, Domonic Brown, and Bruce.

C - None. Just none.

And I up the bidding to two bags of Doritos....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good list, Wayne.
I like the punishment of a down year in leaving out Verlander.
If I would pick on any one name, it would be Zimmerman. I'm starting to wonder if he is a high choice. He just doesn't seem to play up to his perceived capabilities.

[Bronx Yankees]

I will bite!

Pitchers - Scherzer, Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, Strasburg. One who could sneak in their late could be Chris Sale. Also, a gambler might grab Kimbrel as there are so few solid save sources. Probably won't, but maybe. Second round dominated by pitchers and third basemen.

1B - Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Goldschmidt, Encarnacion (everone a beliver now?), Votto ( ). Freddie Freeman could sneak in here as well as Craig.

3B - Thin, thin, thin will drive some of these picks and all of these will be second round. Beltre, Longoria, Wright. Zimmerman could sneak in hear if there is a mini-run somewhere in the second round.

SS - You know...YOU KNOW...someone will gamble on Tulo. I will also put Desmond and Segura here also because this is thin. Wildcard is Reyes.

2B - Kipnis, Cano, Pedroia. The rest of the league will have to pray.

OF - Dominates the first round. Trout, McCutchen, Ellsbury, Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Rios, Harper, Puig, Kemp (you know...YOU KNOW...someone is gonna gamble), Choo, and Justin Upton (in case anyone gets confused and thinks I meant Bossman Junior). Several guys could upset this layer especially late second like Giancarlo, Carlos Gomez, Domonic Brown, and Bruce.

C - None. Just none.

And I up the bidding to two bags of Doritos....

A very nice list. My few suggested edits: Machado for Zimmerman. Hanley for Reyes. I would not go for Zimmerman in the second round or even the third round. Perhaps it's just me, but I love Machado for next year. Great young hitter and I expect some of those doubles to be homers next year. (Machado has been more impressive than Harper this year.) I'm not a Hanley guy and do not expect to pick him high next year, but he has been very impressive the last 6-8 weeks at a shallow position. Although I don't like to gamble on my top picks, is Hanley any riskier than Tulo, Reyes or even Segura?

Mike

[Edwards Kings]

Good list, Wayne.
I like the punishment of a down year in leaving out Verlander.
If I would pick on any one name, it would be Zimmerman. I'm starting to wonder if he is a high choice. He just doesn't seem to play up to his perceived capabilities.

I agree on Zimmerman, but I can just see someone getting nervous, especially on the 2/3 turn.

Verlander will be a top 15 pitcher, just not second round. Lots of innings on that arm.

[Edwards Kings]

A very nice list. My few suggested edits: Machado for Zimmerman. Hanley for Reyes. I would not go for Zimmerman in the second round or even the third round. Perhaps it's just me, but I love Machado for next year. Great young hitter and I expect some of those doubles to be homers next year. (Machado has been more impressive than Harper this year.) I'm not a Hanley guy and do not expect to pick him high next year, but he has been very impressive the last 6-8 weeks at a shallow position. Although I don't like to gamble on my top picks, is Hanley any riskier than Tulo, Reyes or even Segura?

Mike

Hmmm...I had honestly overlooked Machado. I have been burned on that doubles to HR (see Markakis), but I could see him over Zimmerman and 3B is thin.

Hanley can't stay on the field. Anything is possible. I just do not see him second. And yes, he is riskier than Reyes or Segura. NO ONE is riskier than Tulo...but he will still be the first SS off the board.