We'll Be A Whole Lot Smarter in Four Months
Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 10:25 am
Sometimes I like to think how stupid we all are.
During the off season, we try to look over every stat that has any semblance of meaning to us. All these stats are what each player did over the course of a year. It might be the previous year, or last three years, whatever suits our tastes.
Then, we draft our team, mostly with those off-season study of yearly stats in our heads.
Then, the season begins.
And a funny thing happens.
Those yearly stats don't mean squat.
They just don't.
As suddenly as the first pitch of the season, those yearly stats don't mean squat.
After six months of thinking of players from year to year, we now think of them as day to day.
In the day to day process, we ride guys like Yuni Betancourt. We know he is the guy running all out in the starting of a marathon. And we'll probably keep him rostered too long. Anybody that has seen a rabbit, even in a mile race, can't help but wonder, 'WHAT IF HE KEEPS THAT UP?'
Not once have I seen a rabbit sprint at the beginning of a mile race and hear the announcer say, "HE'S ON PACE FOR A THREE MINUTE MILE!
Not once.
We know he can't. But we still dream it.
In the day to day process, Hamels owners, Price owners, and Halladay owners know that although previous years stats looked good, the day to day process of watching this year is miserable. They know that they have a bum year on their hands. NOBODY projected this. And those close to 20 Wins that were hoped for, or expected, or projected, will have to be found somewhere else.
Good luck with that.
In the day to day process, Halladay and Price have almost done their owners a favor. They got hurt. Owners now do not HAVE to start them in hopes of them getting back on their regular yearly track.
It's early enough to expect pitchers with their track records to progress (nobody ever says progress, just regress, so I will) to the mean. If owning Hamels, his owners are almost forced to stay true to him. His past says he'll be better. His present sucks. His future, unknown. We never take this into account when looking at yearly stats.
In the day to day process, we don't wish for our hitters to walk.
Unless their judys. During the off season, 'experts' look at base on balls as a plus.
They think it makes for better hitters.
And striking out less also makes for better hitters.
Do you know who has struck out the least per at bat this year?
Neither do I.
You know why?
BECAUSE WE DON'T GIVE A RAT'S ASS!
We don't give a rat's ass because in the day to day process, we want our categories filled.
That's all.
And we don't care how they do it.
Our off season study shows that Travis Snider could be a breakout candidate.
Umm, that's been true the last four or five years.
Now, we don't care about the last four or five years. All we know is that Snider had a great night last night.
In the day to day process, luck is out the window.
Have you looked at a BABIP stat this year?
Neither have I.
I don't give a rat's ass who is 'lucky' and who is not. All I know is that I want all that luck on my side.
At the end of the year, they may say Mike Trout was lucky.
Again, RAT'S ASS!
All we'll know is that Trout led us to the promised land at the top of the standings.
They can call me lucky, stupid lucky, or smart....just call me, FIRST!
In the day to day process, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman are Clark Kent and Bruce Wayne.
In the off season, SuperMan and BatMan.
In the day to day process, we wonder when/if Matt Kemp will hit a home run.
In the off season, it is impossible to pass on that 5 category goodness.
In the day to day process, we keep hoping for Save opportunities for our Closer.
In the off season Hanrahan, Motte, and Axford were good bets to get those Saves.
In the day to day process, the past means nothing.
In the off season, the past means everything.
Projections, Mocksturbation, 50 round preps, they all mean nothing.
I hate the phrase, 'It is what it is', but, we are what we are.
And not once during the off season, did we think, 'I hope Toronto throws those three crappy righties against Tampa since I have Ben Zobrist and Kelly Johnson'.
Because during that off season, we have the whole 180 days in front of us. All those 30 players we drafted have to do, is perform like we think they should perform.
In the day to day process, they don't. And we know it.
They slump They get hurt. They catch Youkitis.
And they make us miserable....and then exhilerated....and then miserable.
In the day to day process, we know more.
We don't care about Wheeler, or Myers, or Hamilton.
We know where they are.
During the off season, some folks would blow sunshine up our ass and predict a full season for them.
J Weeks, and Tyler Colvin, and Darin Ruf were all sneaky picks.
Brett Anderson and Kevin Youkilis were going to stay healthy.
Hey, that's what Kevey's Mom said!
Now, we know better.
And in knowing more, we know less.
Sure, we know about what is going on around us now, but we don't know the end story.
We'll only know that, during the off season.
And when that time comes, all of a sudden, we all get really smart again.
During the off season, we try to look over every stat that has any semblance of meaning to us. All these stats are what each player did over the course of a year. It might be the previous year, or last three years, whatever suits our tastes.
Then, we draft our team, mostly with those off-season study of yearly stats in our heads.
Then, the season begins.
And a funny thing happens.
Those yearly stats don't mean squat.
They just don't.
As suddenly as the first pitch of the season, those yearly stats don't mean squat.
After six months of thinking of players from year to year, we now think of them as day to day.
In the day to day process, we ride guys like Yuni Betancourt. We know he is the guy running all out in the starting of a marathon. And we'll probably keep him rostered too long. Anybody that has seen a rabbit, even in a mile race, can't help but wonder, 'WHAT IF HE KEEPS THAT UP?'
Not once have I seen a rabbit sprint at the beginning of a mile race and hear the announcer say, "HE'S ON PACE FOR A THREE MINUTE MILE!
Not once.
We know he can't. But we still dream it.
In the day to day process, Hamels owners, Price owners, and Halladay owners know that although previous years stats looked good, the day to day process of watching this year is miserable. They know that they have a bum year on their hands. NOBODY projected this. And those close to 20 Wins that were hoped for, or expected, or projected, will have to be found somewhere else.
Good luck with that.
In the day to day process, Halladay and Price have almost done their owners a favor. They got hurt. Owners now do not HAVE to start them in hopes of them getting back on their regular yearly track.
It's early enough to expect pitchers with their track records to progress (nobody ever says progress, just regress, so I will) to the mean. If owning Hamels, his owners are almost forced to stay true to him. His past says he'll be better. His present sucks. His future, unknown. We never take this into account when looking at yearly stats.
In the day to day process, we don't wish for our hitters to walk.
Unless their judys. During the off season, 'experts' look at base on balls as a plus.
They think it makes for better hitters.
And striking out less also makes for better hitters.
Do you know who has struck out the least per at bat this year?
Neither do I.
You know why?
BECAUSE WE DON'T GIVE A RAT'S ASS!
We don't give a rat's ass because in the day to day process, we want our categories filled.
That's all.
And we don't care how they do it.
Our off season study shows that Travis Snider could be a breakout candidate.
Umm, that's been true the last four or five years.
Now, we don't care about the last four or five years. All we know is that Snider had a great night last night.
In the day to day process, luck is out the window.
Have you looked at a BABIP stat this year?
Neither have I.
I don't give a rat's ass who is 'lucky' and who is not. All I know is that I want all that luck on my side.
At the end of the year, they may say Mike Trout was lucky.
Again, RAT'S ASS!
All we'll know is that Trout led us to the promised land at the top of the standings.
They can call me lucky, stupid lucky, or smart....just call me, FIRST!
In the day to day process, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman are Clark Kent and Bruce Wayne.
In the off season, SuperMan and BatMan.
In the day to day process, we wonder when/if Matt Kemp will hit a home run.
In the off season, it is impossible to pass on that 5 category goodness.
In the day to day process, we keep hoping for Save opportunities for our Closer.
In the off season Hanrahan, Motte, and Axford were good bets to get those Saves.
In the day to day process, the past means nothing.
In the off season, the past means everything.
Projections, Mocksturbation, 50 round preps, they all mean nothing.
I hate the phrase, 'It is what it is', but, we are what we are.
And not once during the off season, did we think, 'I hope Toronto throws those three crappy righties against Tampa since I have Ben Zobrist and Kelly Johnson'.
Because during that off season, we have the whole 180 days in front of us. All those 30 players we drafted have to do, is perform like we think they should perform.
In the day to day process, they don't. And we know it.
They slump They get hurt. They catch Youkitis.
And they make us miserable....and then exhilerated....and then miserable.
In the day to day process, we know more.
We don't care about Wheeler, or Myers, or Hamilton.
We know where they are.
During the off season, some folks would blow sunshine up our ass and predict a full season for them.
J Weeks, and Tyler Colvin, and Darin Ruf were all sneaky picks.
Brett Anderson and Kevin Youkilis were going to stay healthy.
Hey, that's what Kevey's Mom said!
Now, we know better.
And in knowing more, we know less.
Sure, we know about what is going on around us now, but we don't know the end story.
We'll only know that, during the off season.
And when that time comes, all of a sudden, we all get really smart again.